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However, as a baseline counting system, it is worthwhile to see how it performs. In an effort to simplify this unwieldy system as much as possible, I also considered the card counting system with tags 0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0.
To gauge the effectiveness of each, I wrote a computer program to simulate using these two systems in live play. The game I simulated has the following shuffling and cut card rules:.
Shortly after this article was published, I realized that I had made an error that caused me to significantly underestimate the player advantage.
This error was caused by using single-deck estimations for the remaining cards in the shoe, rather than determining the exact true count based on the fractional decks remaining.
I revised my simulation program and confirmed my updated results with Steve How of discountgambling. I apologize for any inconvenience I may have caused the reader.
It is clear from the last row of Table 4 that system 2, with tags 0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0 , performs remarkably well in comparison to its optimal cousin.
If he does so, then on average he will have an 8. This counter will have the opportunity to make the Dragon bet at or above the target true count on 9.
Given that the average shoe yields about 80 hands, the counter should be able to make, on average, about seven Dragon bets per shoe with the edge.
It is worthwhile to check that the simulated results for system 2 make sense combinatorially. In this case, combinatorial analysis gives a player edge of 1.
Cut card placement varies by casino, so it is worthwhile to investigate how the edge changes with the placement of the cut card. Table 5 gives statistics for all cut card placements from 14 cards to 52 cards, and then by half-deck increments up to four decks.
This analysis shows that in theory the Dragon Side Bet in EZ Baccarat is an advantage play opportunity using a card counting methodology. In my opinion, however, given the high variance and low return, card counting is not a practical threat to the game.
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