As a parent of three wonderful young daughters, I am asking myself many questions at the moment.  Not least that of what would I do if one of them contracted swine flu.  Would I trust Tamiflu or would they be better off without it?  That question comes all the harder, in light of today’s events.

After living through the debate over the safety of the MMR ‘triple injection’ in one jab and whether that was safe, with contrary evidence arriving almost monthly contradicting the previous finding, swine flu is now the question on parents lips.

What we know is that swine flu places the youngest in society at greatest risk, (under 12), far more so than it does adults and pensioners, hence leading parents wanting to act to protect their children.  Whilst Tamiflu does not prevent or cure Swine Flu it is supposed to lessen the duration by 24 hours and prevent the highest temperature excesses, which anything which helps our children, we would all want to do.

However research for the British Medical Journal, (BMJ), today states that Children should not be treated with Tamiflu as it can do more harm than good.  Researchers analysed studies involving children aged between one and 12 taking either Tamiflu or Relenza. The study found that the anti-viral drug can cause vomiting, which may lead to dehydration and other complications. Tamiflu was also found to have little or no effect when treating asthma flare-ups or ear infections.

This follows on after a recent study which found children given Tamiflu were reported to be suffering side-effects such as nausea and nightmares.

So as a parent I am very very unsure about giving my children medicine which is currently being touted by some specialists as ineffective and also some saying it will make my children worse!

This begs several questions. 

If it has no positive effects for children, can the same be said for adults?

Why have the government ordered so much stock of Tamiflu when it is proven to be ineffective?

Are tax payers again footing the bill for yet more wasteful, ill thought out, Government expenditure?

So, turning our attention away from TamiFlu….what hope for the Swine Flu H1N1 vaccine.  Rush produced!  Rush tested!  Little time to see effects on humans!  Will this have side effects?  Can the Government guarantee it doesn’t?  Do we trust them?  When initial vaccine stocks are available in batch one, (half the population), late this year, would I want to vaccinate my children in that first unproven batch…..or better to wait for the next batch…or would that be too late if the winter epidemic takes hold?

Tough times to be a parent and take the best decisions for your children.  I wish I could trust in what this Government says but it makes it impossible when it is addicted to spin and lying……

The REAL National Lottery maybe coming!……

So what is occupying the powers that be this summer?  Well apart from the recession, the busiest Government Department is Health.   Civil Servants are busy working on decisions that could affect our lives!  YOUR life, YOUR families lives!

Swine Flu is still the big unknown….how will it take effect.  Will it mutate?  Will it turn more deadly?  Questions none of us can answer as yet.

The Government has purchased enough vaccine against this strain of swine flu ie H1N1,  to vaccinate the entire population of 61 million people. All fine and good there……..but there is a but. A big but!  Come the end of this year, with the UK in Winter, with the swine flu projected to be at its height, we would have only received half of the order.  There comes the issue……..who is the priority and who gets the treatment?

As you would expect, health service workers on the front line will be in the first wave. We all support and understand that.   Pregnant women, the very young and those with existing poor medical conditions will also be high up the list.  Again, who can disagree with that?

Who next?  Should it be pensioners?  Normally high on any list.   Here’s the interesting dilemma, the elderly don’t seem to be as much as risk of swine flu. It is reported rates of infection and hospitalisation are relatively low.

So this leads to the crux. Who should be in wave 1?  Some have suggested a lottery. This gets round issues of discrimination by age, sex, or utility / criticalness to society.  If the young and old are equally open to infection then does this route make matters fair?  Some state that we need to make a valued judgement on who is most critical to society ie do we prioritise certain people based on their value to society eg is a businessman of higher value than a refuse collector?  A fireman over a librarian?  A teacher over a dinner lady?

Tough questions……and ones that officials are sweating over at the Department of Health as you read this.  All routes have their disadvantages.  How would society feel about asylum seekers getting injections over long term subjects of the crown? 

Maybe a lottery is the best way forward in a free society?

So we learn that the Swine Flu hotline will go live by the end of the week.

Good news….as there is a lot of panic about swine flu and people need to discuss and check their symptoms and get some peace of mind.

But………BUT

The swine flu hotline will be staffed by 1,500 non medically trained staff.  ‘Lay’ people.  People like you and I sitting on the end of a phone with a script to read and advise people……with the goal to stop people panicking!

So, given that the 1,500 staff have no medical clue, why not ask them about their views on the latest developments in Coronation Street.  Or whether England are on course to win the Ashes.  Or even their views on Speaker Bercow.  They may have more clue on these subjects as they certainly have no clue or remit as medical experts.

A disgrace to our intelligence.  Why open a critical healthline with no medical staff at the end of the line?

Andy Burnham, Health Secretary, states that political points should not be made on swine flu.  It is too serious a subject.  That’s the second subject that the Government have said is beyond criticism and should be worthy of cross party support, (ie War in Afghanistan being the second).

So when this Government feels exposed, is making a hash, it seeks to ensure that people should not discuss issues.  Sorry Andy, in a democracy, it’s our right to question.

What is the world coming to?!!!!!!!! 

As the UK dangles over the economic precipice, we cannot afford for ‘events, dear boy’, to knock the economy back further into the canvass.

But events is what is now threatening our economy and jobs.

If the Swine flu pandemic continues as it is forecast to do by the Government, then Britain could slide backwards towards a deflationary recession.

Ernst & Young have issued a report stating if a pandemic reaches 100,000 cases a day by August, lasting for 6 months, it would lead to a devastating fall of 7.5 % in GDP.  This is based on Government figures of an ultimate reach of 50% with a death rate of 0.4%.

Of course the fall in GDP is based on sick employees not going to work.  Also predicted is a fall in retail economic activity as shoppers keep away from crowds.  This also feeds into out tourism, sports, food/restaurants and entertainment culture.

Swine flu cannot be underestimated.  It is moving, according to the World Health Organisation, as an ‘unprecedented speed’, thanks to modern globalisation and travel.

Adding to this is the worry that swine flu may mutate and could turn deadly if it combines with avian flu in South East Asian hotspots or Egypt.

Let’s keep fingers crossed swine flu does not turn into the curse of this generation!

 So question, why is it that a small, tiny nation like Britain has the 3rd worst swine flu toll in the world?

Official figures state that there are currently the following known cases of swine flu across the world:

USA     33,902

Mexico     10,262

UK     10,000

Canada     7,983

Chile     7,376

Australia     5,298

Argentina     2,485

Tanzania     2,076

China     2,040

Japan     1,790

The UK’s Chief medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson also stated that the number of cases were most likely a lot higher in the UK but many people have not registered their symptoms.

But thankfully we have the clear bold leadership of Gordon Brown and crew.  They have already provided all households with the vital swine flu leaflet that told us to put our hands in front of our face when we sneeze, then wash our hands.   Yes…..’catch it, bin it, kill it’!!!   Thanks for that vital information which needed to be sent to Britain’s 26.5 million households. 

And now, just as the recession is on a knife edge the government make another genius announcement.  Workers will be able to sign themselves off sick for up to two weeks under Government emergency plans released by Andy Burnham.  Just as well it is not a World Cup year as the nation would be signed off work. 

Any answers to why little old Britain is the 3rd highest swine flu cases in the World?

As I sit and write this the news is full of doom and gloom about the new swine flu.  A scary flu that is causing many deaths in Mexico.

One question…….

If the disease is being spread human to human and is reaching global borders through air and sea transporation, why are planes still flying in and out of quarantined zones / areas with diseased cases?

Surely, to help prevent the spread, especially to an island like the UK, limit flights in and out and ensure that all who enter and leave on those limited flights are injected to prevent contracting the disease?