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President Obama has conceded in an interview with Adam Boulton on Sky News that a fresh review of Afghanistan strategy will be needed….after planned Afghanistan elections. Obama was full of praise for the British troops and Britain’s ‘extraordinary contribution’ and felt the pain of loss at their death. But he stated that the UK were more at threat than the USA from the Taliban and terrorists. He raised the prospect that terrorists would be at pains to cause atrocities in London and that this was not just a USA war but a world war that the British needed to play a critical role.
So let’s take a look at the regime we are defending with British lives….the presidential election is due to be held on August 20th. This will be the country’s 2nd democratic election. The previous 2004 Afghan election was held on October 9, 2004, whereby President Hamid Karzai won thus granting him a five-year term ending this October.
The elections are all set. On March 11, 2009, NATO officials announced that 15.6 million voters had registered to vote, roughly 50% of the country’s population. 35 to 38 percent of the registered voters are women.
These are the women that many are currently being ‘raped’. President Karzai only recently signed a law the UN states legalizes rape in marriage and prevents women from leaving the house without permission. The law, which has not been publicly released, is understood to state women can only seek work, education or doctor’s appointments with their husband’s permission. Opponents of this law governing the personal lives of Afghanistan’s Shia minority have said it is “worse than during the Taliban”.
How can women be demoted to such second class citizens? Political analysts state that President Karzai is electioneering at the expense of women’s rights by signing the law to win crucial votes from Shia swing voters in this year’s presidential poll. While the Afghan constitution guarantees equal rights for women, it also allows the Shia community, (10 per cent of the population), the right to settle family law cases according to Shia law.
So, nice start….women are demoted to ‘slave’ status….what about the rest of the Government and state of the country? Sorry to say, Karzai’s government is corrupt, muddled, and feeble. It is rapidly losing authority both in the Pashtun regions of the country, where most of the armed opposition to the Kabul authorities and the coalition forces is found, and in the still relatively peaceful non-Pashtun areas.
As stated on this blog many times, drugs drive the economy. After the Taliban were overthrown in 2001 there was a lot of confidence about planned agricultural and industrial projects. Some of the promised aid & help aid has never been delivered, and much has been just frittered away and wasted.
Now as Obama states this is not a US led war….for him it is important to be seen as the USA being a part of a global alliance. The unity of the Nato forces tasked to defeat the Taliban is quite frankly a joke. Most of the countries supporting the US and Britain have sent their forces to lurk and hide in uncontested parts of the country. This allows their Government’s to show they are playing their part but remaining popular at home as they keep costs low….both in terms of money and casualties!
And there goes the problem…….war is expensive both in terms of cash and deaths of soldiers. Britain has suffered 15 deaths in 10 days and that is a terrific price to pay. The cost is also crippling, especially in a recession. £2.5 billion. Many soldiers are also questioning the military tactics employed…… especially by the American forces, (which Britain depends on). Some of these tactics are highly dubious eg the use of an air arm that sometimes finds it hard to differentiate between the enemy gathering for an attack and ordinary people gathering for a wedding!
Most challenging of all is the question of geography and territory creep. This war is spreading across different borders. At the start of this war al-Qaida and the Taliban fled Afghanistan to find sanctuary in Pakistani villages. But fast forward to today and that very Taliban and terrorist groupings have been eroding Islamabad’s control of the tribal areas and today the possibility of the possible defeat, or at least the retreat, of Pakistani armed forces in their own country is a reality. That is a scary reality….and far worse than the situation we initially faced at the start of this war.
So who is likely to win the Presidential election? While Afghans on the street openly complain about Karzai’s rule, surveys show he is likely to win a second term….why?….because his opponents have almost no support. A May poll found that 31 percent of 3,200 Afghans surveyed said they would vote for Karzai if the Aug. 20 presidential election were held today — NB he won 55 % support in the 2004 poll….that’s a big drop in support. But Karzai would be happier to know that the poll showed that: 69 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of him, and 43 % of likely voters said he deserves a second term. Now here is the fascinating stat: only 7 % said they would vote for Karzai’s closest competitor, Abdullah Abdullah. The next strongest opponent, Ashraf Ghani, had just 4 % support.
So, this interesting insight clearly shows that we face big issues and that the Afghanistani people also need to start putting their own house in order….they are a long way from doing that…..and we are a long way from removing our troops from Afghanistan…….what a mess!
