Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

Superb thoughts from Guest Blogger John Laity.

———————————————–

Britain remains in recession, yet Germany and France recover……Fiscal Stimulus or Tax Breaks?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) today (23/10/09) said British gross domestic product fell by 0.4 per cent between July and September, meaning the economy has contracted for six successive quarters for the first time since records began in 1955.

With an election due by next June, the length of the downturn must be worrying for Gordo and the Labour Party, particularly as Germany and France are already out of recession. Does this show that the Labour spin machine is way off the mark:

“This Chancellor is leading the rest of the world in taking us out of recession.” Gordon Brown, Hansard, 3 June 09

Following publication of the ONS report sterling fell by more than a cent against the dollar, providing no relief for Chancellor Darling, who has forecast that UK growth will resume by the end of the year and is counting on a stronger rebound in the coming years than most independent forecasts.

UK Services contracted by 0.2 percent over the quarter, with the distribution, hotels and catering sub-sector leading the decline with a 1 per cent quarterly drop. This can only be bad news for Unemployment figures, hidden perhaps by the news that Royal Mail workers will strike for a second time…not good for business…

The ONS also showed industrial output to be weak, following a sharp monthly drop in August, and the GDP data bore this out. Industrial production fell by 0.7 per cent over the quarter, taking its annual decline to 10.4 per cent.

Commenting on growth figures released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) the TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber said:

‘This is now the longest recession in modern economic history. Even the co-ordinated world-wide stimulus has not been able to halt the damage done by the financial crash.

Even if we had achieved a technical recovery today, it would not feel like a recovery to the thousands losing their jobs or afraid that they will join the dole queue in the months ahead when unemployment will continue rising. It takes more than a statistical read out and the return of big bank bonuses for a real recovery.

These worse than expected figures should head off the growing signs of complacency. The economy is still extremely fragile. Any halt in economic stimulus – or even worse, cuts in spending in a premature effort to close the deficit – could easily send us into another downwards spiral.

Politicians cannot now say that the recession is over so we can go back to treating the unemployed as work-shy scroungers rather than victims of the financial crash. Fighting unemployment – particularly among the young – must be national priority number one.’

Ouch…pokes in the eye for Gordo and Darling…best wear safety specs from now on in…

So why is it that Germany and France have recovered sooner than the UK?

The quick answer is that the UK economy was in a worse state than the rest of the world. Something I am sure all opposition parties will want to highlight.

HOWEVER, on the run up to an election we should look to dig deeper.

As late as April 2009, analysts were predicting that the outlook for the German Economy was gloomiest of all states:

“Berlin, 8 April, 2009 The outlook for Europe’s largest economy is nothing less than catastrophic. For an economy that has been historically strong, never contracting more than 1% a year since World War II, the Commerzbank forecast that it would shrink 7-9% in 2009 is not encouraging.”

However, as part of Germany’s recovery plan they instigated a sweeping range of Tax Breaks, including allowing companies to write off interest payments more easily, as well as the loosening of Gewerbesteuer, which is a local trade tax.

In addition to reducing the tax burden on business, Germany instigated a range of Tax Breaks for individuals including a measure to reduce “cold progression” — where workers’ income tax brackets rise with pay increases.

Indeed while the UK Government has pledged to remove tax breaks for Child Care Vouchers, the German Government has plans to raise child-support payments to 200 euros a month from 154 euros and lift the tax exemption for dependent children to 8,004 euros from 6,024 euros annually.

To be fair, these plans were shelved from immediate implementation on 10/10/09 by the German Government, but the difference in approach between the UK and Germany is clear.

Meanwhile, France’s Culture Minister Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres has classified video gaming as art. In doing so, the French gaming industry including Ubisoft, Vivendi and Infogrames received a 20 percent tax break. Gaming Projects were pre-approved to ensure they provided cultural diversity, but this is still a smart move as the Gaming Market seems to be recession proof, so a great thing to promote within your economy.

Of the projects approved, 45 per cent were Nintendo DS projects with an average budget of EUR 281,000 (GBP 250,000), 20 per cent were Wii projects for EUR 2.7 million (GBP 2.3 million), 16 per cent PC projects for 2.5 million (GBP 2.2 million), while PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 projects accounted for a further 15 per cent, averaging at EUR 11.2 million (GBP 9.9 million).

A similar project is underway for film makers, where foreign film makers can recoup up to 20 per cent of their production budget in France, up to a maximum of four million euros. The BBC have already taken advantage of this on it’s series ‘Merlin’, which is being filmed in a chateau in northern France…It seems somehow wrong that King Arthur isn’t supporting English Heritage sites…

But it is not all culture, one of the main forms of assistance granted to address the recession is an exemption from the French business rates, the taxe professionnelle.

The extent of the exemption depends on the type of business and the decisions of the local, county and regional councils, but in those ZRR communes with less than 2000 habitants, all new start-ups with less than 5 employees can get complete exemption for a period of 5 years. Similar assistance is provided in Local property taxes, but the most interesting assistance is provided in the form of employer social security contributions.

If you are proposing to take on staff in France, then there is complete exemption from the payment of employer social security contributions for any new employees, for up to 12 months, capped at 150% of the level of the basic wage…A measure that is very similar to that proposed by the UK Conservative Party, who plan to provide National Insurance exemption for new company start ups.

What has the UK done?

Chancellor Darling did implement a reduction in Value Added Tax (Input Tax / VAT) by 2.5%. However, you have to consider that many companies and organisations annually reclaim VAT as part of business expences. As such, although the stimulus is effective in passing individual households savings on everyday items, those business reclaiming VAT skew the picture. More over, as the stimulus is time limited it does little to mitigate VAT charged on long term leasing or outsourcing contracts. If you leased plant in 2009, you know that it will cost more in 2010.

The Chancellor also implemented the green car incentive program, similar to that in place in Germany…Sadly, too late for the LDV Maxus Van, but then I am not sure that the scheme would have applied in any case…

One thing is for sure. With Election 2010 looming and the difference between Tory 10% Cuts and Labour 9.8% Cuts to Public Services is so small, that the matter of taxation breaks and incentives is sure to be an interesting discussion area!

Some other things to digest:

The Australian Government announced a tax break as an ‘investment allowance’ in December 2008 aimed at helping businesses meet the challenges of the economic downturn. The government later extended this tax break in the May Budget to allow small businesses to claim a 50% tax deduction on eligible assets bought by 31 December 2009.

In New Zealand Offshore oil and gas explorers will have their tax breaks (due to expire in 2009) extended for another five years to bring additional revenues into the economy.

We all want this dreadful recession to end.  Many of us have friends who have been affected by this harsh recession be it, losing their job, falling into debt, having their house re-possessed, destroying their marriage/family life, through the stress of potential redundancy / working longer hours to hold their jobs.  The sooner we see ‘green shoots’ the better.  Alastair Darling has been more encouraging lately as he sees those green shoots emerging and that the UK is back into recovery mode.  He has to be positive to talk up the markets but economic data paints a darker picture and one which shows that whilst the economy is fighting to get out of recession, the dangers of a double dip recession are serious and real.  For that we must all be worried.

Politics is currently in suspended animation.  Everything on hold until the next election.  The Government are deferring key decisions until after that election.  Tough medicine the economy needs NOW is being held until post election….why?….because tough decisions are unpopular and this Government wants to win the next election.  The lack of decision making, total procrastination at the heart of Government is damaging the economy still further.  Let’s have that election today and get on with the job of getting people back to work and this great economy on its path to recovery and prosperity.

Key economic data yesterday painted a worrying position.  Government debt is far worse than expected and spiralling.  Government revenue received through tax receipts is dropping like a stone whilst benefit payments are shooting skywards.  Bank lending, seen as key to small businesses rejuvenation, is again falling.  Banks, several of which this Government now own, (ie we do as British tax payers), are failing in their duty and stated promises to push bank lending again and get the economy moving.  These stated goals are not being implemented and not evident.  Many small businesses are delaying on investment decisions because they cannot get bank funding, (we heard that story from a recent post by Russ Rec).  In the meantime, whilst banks don’t lend, they are grabbing with the other hand.  Credit card rates are rising.  Bank charges reappearing for minuscule errors.  Private household debt the highest of European nations.

Despite the abuse Gordon Brown threw at David Cameron over the Conservatives Spending plans ie branding DC Mr 10%, we now see from leaked Treasury papers that the Government are planning 10% across the board cuts.  Hypocritical is one word Mr Brown!  The politics of dishonesty is never attractive and this electorate have long memories.

Lets make no bones about it, tough spending cuts HAVE to follow.  For the sake of the economy.  Whoever wins power.  Cuts will involved public sector job losses, hence adding to the unemployment queues.  But if we don’t, we are in danger of having to go cap in hand to the IMF for a bail out by them….again!.  They will impose tough conditions to the bail out and cuts could be even more savage.  We all know that UK PLC is in danger of losing its ‘AAA’ credit rating on the world stage. 

Any public sector losses, especially job losses/pay freezes, WILL see the Unions swing into action.  A winter of discontent beckons.  The Post Office have balloted members for strike action.  The Tube Drivers have been striking this year already.  We can expect the nation grinding to a halt at various stages this winter due to Union protests, hence damaging the recovery.  Power workers have threatened walkouts, hence the return of black outs is a real possibility.

So a lot can undermine our economy.  Double dip recession is a real possibility.  But lets take a closer look at the stats……

Our debt situation is horrific.  No over word describes the cancerous, spiralling debt this country is storing up for our children.  Yesterday we learn that bankrupt Britain borrowed £6,000 every second last month.  The Government amassed a humongous £16.1 billion debt in one month…the largest on record.  This was a 63% increase borrowed in the same month last year.  The Government has borrowed £63.5bn since the beginning of the financial year in April.  Britain’s overall debt now stands at £800bn—heading for the £1 trillion mark. That is frightening.

Our nation’s finances are out of control.  This is shameful mismanagement of the economy on a criminal scale.  Quantative easing draws mixed responses from the world’s best economists and whether it is having any effect on the UK economy.  The IMF even stated that they could not assess whether any impact had been made by pumping a huge amount into the economy.  Bank of England data shows that broad money supply grew by just 0.1% in August, after a 1.3% increase in July.  This dragged the annual growth rate down to 12.6% from 14.4% a month earlier, hence demonstrating quantative easing’s limited/zero effect.

It now looks like we are on track to amass a debt of over £200bn by the end of the fiscal year, some predicting an overshoot of Govt Spending targets by £50bn.

With the economy still seeing dire unemployment figures, predictably total tax take over the first five months of the year to the end of August was 11.4% lower compared to the first 5 months of last year, while benefits spending was 9.5% higher.

Net lending to British businesses also fell in July, (by the largest amount since records began).  it fell by £15.5bn, even more sharply than the £3.6bn drop in June.  Why?  Companies paid back more than banks lent.  The figures for August are projected to worsen.

We cannot gamble our nation”s future any more….for the sake of our children let’s have that election now and let the people decide.

Remember the arrogance of Gordon Brown, standing bolt upright in the House of Commons, and saying with all the conviction he could muster, that the UK was best placed to lead the world out of recession?  Well what happened Gordon?  Surely not spin?

The IMF has published a paper by the Chief Economist, Oliver Blanchard, that ‘the recovery has started’. ‘Sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries’.   

His comments followed the news that Japan became the latest major economy to return to growth in the second quarter, following a recovery in German and French GDP.   How did Britain compare? We shrank 0.8%. So much for being best placed to lead the world out of recession.

Continuing the theme of economic misery, David Cameron, warns that the Government will be unable to honour it’s debts.   With Labour planning to borrow an extra £700 billion over 5 years and hence the national debt will hit £1.4 trillion that exposed Britain to economic risks.

Cameron, outlined that, in the past governments could borrow more cheaply that other institutions because investors are confident they will get their money back. Given that the government was borrowing so much, some investors may ask for higher interest rates, to reflect a higher risk of lending. Hence not repaying debt.

So Gordon, want to retract your comments?  You worry about your legacy….well it is clear….an economic legacy of mass unemployment, an economy in debt that may need to be bailed out by the IMF, downgraded by Standard & Poor from a ‘AAA’ credit rating…….how do you sleep at night?

Each day that passes my blood boils even more.  It is very clear that the economy is on a knife edge.  Yes certain tiny green shoots can be pointed to generate some positive news, be it a slight rise in house prices or mortgage applications or even retail sales.  But the economy is on the edge of the precipice and is tittering precariously into falling into a double dip recession. 

This whole debate on public spending is farcical.  Brown is deceiving the people, no other words for it.  Treating us for fools.  Yes Gordon…I will say it…you are a LIAR!!!!  The huge public deficit is a massive issue.  All credible economic commentators, be it the World Bank, the IMF, the IFS, IOD, CBI, all are calling for a slow down and cuts in public spending.  The crippling interest rates on government debt and the still spiralling debt for generations to come does not make the UK an attractive investment zone in the coming years.  We have to either drastically cut spending and / or alter tax levels.

Socialists and Lib Dems are calling for rises in tax, especially on middle income & Middle England.  But what really gets to me heart is that middle income / England is the engine of the national economy.  I earn a respectable salary but if the government continue to chip away at my real income, where is my incentive to be an entrepreneur?  We are all geographically mobile and happy to relocate aboard.  Again, the facts are there in the Treasury Red Book, when taxes are cut, tax receipts rise.  Entrepreneurs have more money to take risks and invest and of course invest in their business.  This creates employment and this creates more people spending in the real economy.  Simple concepts but rarely understood.

Do we seriously believe that focusing attention on the unemployed will pull the UK out of recession?  Sitting on an unemployment benefit does not create jobs for others, it does not create the wealth trickle down for others.  Let’s focus on the real debate on incentivising entrepreneurs to start the powerhouse economy working again, that way we can take the unemployed and put them back into work…exactly as they want as well.

Spending has been the debate post MP’s expenses.  We all know Brown’s catch phrases.  ‘Spending will continue to rise under Labour as we invest’.  ‘Labour investment, Tory Cuts’.  ‘We are the Party of the many, the Tories of the few’.  And now, ‘Tories are the party of unemployment’.  Brown and his fraggles have been pumping these lines out for weeks.  All complete lies as the Government Red Books show spending decreasing.

If these were not lies…why the events of this past weekend?……..

But this weekend….finally what do we see.  The Chancellor suddenly finds the road to Damascus and states that the public sector faces a pay freeze.  Darling stated…’Public sector pay has got to reflect prevailing conditions and in particular inflation has come way down’.    Freezing public sector pay will save £5bn.

Official figures last month showed that in the three months to April, even as the economy shrank at the fastest pace since 1958, public sector workers enjoyed average pay increases of 3.6%.  Private Sector awards averaged 0.3%   No commentary needed….who says that Neverland is vacant….all the staff of the Public sector are living there, enjoying these fantastical pay rises!

And in contrast to Gordon Brown, who will not speak of spending cuts….at least Alastair Darling lives in the real world and all but admitted spending cuts by stating: ‘We do need to set out our priorities, we have got to make choices’. 

As we head to the next G8, Gordon is set to warn that oil prices have soared by 75%, world trade has sunk 25% and unemployment is rising.  All a recipe for disaster and a double dip recession.  Getting ready for your next excuses Gordon?

This country is crying out for leadership.  It is crying out for the truth.  Spending cuts are not nasty words Gordon…they are the words we want to hear.

Gordon will continue lying but even more sad that his weak leadership means that we are heading for a new winter of discontent with trade unions flexing their muscles against this ailing Prime Minister.  If Darling does pull off what is needed ie public sector freeze, beware the Unions and strikes….does Brown have the strength of a Thatcher to face them down….I wonder what odds ladbrookes would offer…..just called them, won’t give odds!!!