Another guest blog from John Laity.  Keep em coming John….

——————————–

So following a “packed” pre-launch speech yesterday, we get some interesting openers.

“The pull of coming back to serve this Prime Minister, our leader, Gordon Brown – who was gripping this financial crisis, leading the fightback against it when so many others seemed caught in the headlights.”

He’s back !!!  Mandy’s Here !!!

Yes, Peter brings some enthusiasm to a lack luster and tired looking conference so far. A welcome and entertaining relief from those sentenced to a week in Brighton.

Amongst some classic Mandelson Vandalism’s were the following gems:

“I did not choose this party.  I was born into it. It is in my blood and in my bones.”

And like Jesus the party faithful ate his body and drank his blood…but then came my predictions from yesterday:

“A Labour Government has never been more needed.
- Needed to fight back against the recession.
- Needed to build and secure our future economic strength.
- And needed to ensure we pay down debt in a way that is fair and protects jobs, homes and our frontline public services.
And yet, we must face facts. Electorally, we are in the fight of our lives. And, yes, we start that fight as underdogs.”

Now this is worrying, the spin master has laid down the rules. We will now face an unrelenting unmoving non-wavering line upon these issues. Labour are fighting back you know!

But there is hope…In some gutter slinging we now have “Boy George” and “Shallow David Cameron”…Good news, as such slinging is bad news for Votes…

But note that it will come from Lord Mandelson, not from Gordo…No the spin machine is too good for that.

But what of the other speakers?

Hilary Ben, a past Labour big hitter stepped up, quoting Roosevelt and the great Depression and then drawing down from Obama: “It is with hope that we can – and we will – change the world for the better.”
Eddy Miliband, a past contender to the crown, “David Cameron is good at green stunts. The huskies. The bike – with the car and driver following behind. The wind turbine on the roof.”
Lord Adonis, “Join Labour on this great journey. Let’s not go down the Tory dead-end street. do so.”

My interest was most peaked by Tessa Jowell, who quoted Obama and then compared the general public (that she meets traveling around the country) to Olympians, “They may not mount the podium to receive a medal, the adulation of a nation ring in their ears.”…Bronze medals for everyone then!

But certainly we started to get a feel for what the big hope really was for Labour…Don’t let the Conservative wield Obama style “Change”!

Lord Mandelson laid some traps:

“Well, the Tories may have skimmed the headline summary of the New Labour manual.  But they never bothered to read the book. If they had they would know what real change involves.  They would know what a painful process it is. We in this hall know what it took to make the change. Show me what has really changed in the Conservative Party.”

But the real speech today to listen to was from Gordo’s Number 2. The reluctant resident from number 11 gave a good account of what Labour have done to stem the global thermonuclear meltdown of the world finance system. He told us how Gordo had single handedly stopped us from dying in the nuclear winter caused by the collapse of (Northern Rock?) our entire monetary system…Impressive stuff…

But in the impressive list of godly monies spent to help us recover were some interesting omissions:

No monetary account of the billions handed out to the banks…as to do so would have eclipsed the monies quoted as being spent on Jobs and Industry

No mention of what was being spent to win the war in Afghanistan…to bring home troops safely. I suspect we will get that from Gordo tomorrow.

So all eyes will now turn to Gordo, who now not only wants a televised debate now (apparently)…he wants a whole load of them…See he was never scared of Cameron, he just didn’t want Nick Clegg involved.

Peter Mandelson is a clever politician.  Loathed by Conservative benches, Mandelson is a shrewd opportunist who can manipulate popular opinion and massage  media messaging.  Brown relies on him implicitly now.  In the recent leadership debacle we learn daily new details of the lengths that Mandelson went to support Brown and prop him up, including speaking with each of the potential major leadership challenges to persuade them they were better off under Brown.  Without Mandelson it seems that Brown was a gonner!

There is nothing Mandelson likes more than power.  He is as addicted to power as much as any drug addict is to cocaine.  He simply will not stand by while Labour continues to drown.  Norwich North would have been a hammer blow to him.  Reportedly he loves Labour, perhaps unfairly I would say he loves power more.  Hence he MUST be now debating how the Labour Party can win / limit damage at the next election?  Norwich North would have confirmed to him that Brown is the Conservatives biggest advantage. 

So let’s put ourselves into Mandelson’s shoes.  He knows that Gordon Brown is now a liability and that there is little chance of Brown being in any way in a position to turn this ship around.  When and how to remove Brown is the best questionfor Mandelson to answer….and to plan for.

Labour strategicians are banking on good economic news coming the end of this year and the beginning of next year.  Labour will not want to wait till the end of June and most likely aim for an April election.  With the new tax year starting in April, people will see higher tax bills reducing their net pay.  This is not the message that a winning Government would want the electorate to experience pre going to the Polls, hence early April would be the optimal last date for an election.  S0 then Mandy must work back if April is the election date…when would a new leader be best placed to take the helm of the ship?  (calling an election before December would be suicidal as green shoots of recovery would not be felt by the electorate and that is what the Government are banking on to help their electoral chances).

So when would it be best to get rid of Brown?  Conference season in October?  This would not make much sense.  When replacing the leader, parties benefit for a short honeymoon period, whatever the circumstances.  The new Labour Leader could seek to distance themselves from the policies and unpopularity of Brown, to paint a new and rosy picture of what life would be like under their leadership but this strategy only works if an election comes within 2/3 months of replacing the leader.  If Brown was ousted in October, and Labour hope to benefit from better economic news and people to see recession is ending, hence aim for an April election, the new leader in place in October would be out of the honeymoon period and mired in events and any bad news.

So, if I was Mandy, (what a scary thought), I would aim for Brown to step aside in late November, with the Labour Party going through a ‘disciplined’ leadership battle, with a new Leader in place by the New Year.  New Year, New Leader.  Promote the hell out of him/her, (heaven forbid if Harman), in the New Year and then call an election for the last week of March/first week of April.

Agree?  Let’s see what happens……

Mandelson smells defeat under Brown….

Remember Stretch Armstrong?  A real blast from the past….but Stretch and Gordon Brown have a lot in common, both give plastic performances, neither can smile and both are pliable and can be shaped in different directions…including in U Shapes….!!!

We seem to be in U-Turn city this week……

Central Labour Party Policy 1…scrapped…….The National ID Card Scheme

So yesterday we were told by the new Home Secretary Alan Johnson that compulsory ID Cards were to be scrapped.  Remember how Jacqui Smith said that a National ID Card Scheme was essential in the fight against serious crime and preventing terrorist atrocities in the UK.  Alan Johnson completely ignored this and said that ID cards would be beneficial for students proving their age in the pub…..quite a difference.  That’s a big ideological jump…ID cards prevent terrorism to ID Cards get you a pint in the pub!  Derisory yes…laughable..totally!

So the National ID Card Scheme……which would have cost £4.9bn is now dead….on a compulsory basis.  People can voluntarily request them…which if noone does means the scheme is then completly dead.  Well, it’s dead then!

So Central Labour Party Policy 2…scrapped…….Post Office Privatisation

Today, Lord Mandelson, fresh from complaining that Post Office Privatisation was being ‘jostled’ by a busy legislative agenda, went one step further and effectively killed off Post Office Privatisation before the election.  Mandelson charmed the House of Lords stating:  ”Market conditions have made it impossible to conclude the process to identify a partner on terms that would give market value to the taxpayer.”  The government would look at the issue again “when market conditions have changed”, he added.  (That means after the election!).

Let’s say that Mandelson was economical with the truth.  Brown & Mandy knew that there was a real chance this legislation could have been defeated by….Labour backbenchers.  Brown needed the support of Tories to get this through.  Given recent leadership issues he could not stir this issue up. Around 180 Labour MPs had signed a motion calling on the government to keep Royal Mail in public ownership.  This was not a battle Brown needed.

2 massive U-Turns in 2 days….this is added to the moving away from targets in schools, the introduction of private tutors into schools and in the health service, the move towards private enterprise with patients, faced with slow NHS service being able to go for Private Care, funded by the state.

So many U-turns that it is hard to keep up.

No authority, no vision, no direction……..what dismal days Brown is leading his Party in.

The Prince of Darkness…..Peter Pan!

Well well, what do we have here?  Peter Mandelson announced today that Post Office part Privatisation will have to be delayed because…..there is not enough room on the Government’s bustling legislative agenda.  That has to be the best joke Mandy has told in a long time. I love he uses the word that the legislation is being ‘jostled’.

Is this the Palace of Westminster that sees debates curtailed and MP’s kicking around, bored, with the lightest legislative agenda for years?

Let’s be honest.  Brown doesn’t have the support to get this legislation through because it is DEEPLY unpopular amongst his Labour backbench MP’s.  Brown’s MP’s will not support it.  This legislation will not see the light of day as it is officially in the long grass.  The next legislation presented to Parliament regarding the Post Office will be by the Tories after the next election.  Labour have bottled it.

Full credit to David Cameron for offering to ‘help Mandy’ by giving up an Opposition debate day for the bill to get a 2nd reading in the House.  Obviously, Brown won’t go for this but Cameron makes his point well.

Mandy stated that the timing of a deal to to recruit a minority strategic partner from the private sector into the Royal Mail had been “inevitably” affected by the “terrible financial shock” that has hit the markets.  But he said the finances of the Royal Mail were approaching crisis point and the future of the UK’s delivery service depended on a turnaround in Royal Mail’s business.  To back this up he stated:  ”In principle we remain entirely committed to the proposals that were first put forward by an independent review,” Lord Mandelsonsaid.  “(Royal Mail workers) have a pension fund which is facing a deficit of something in the region of £7bn to £8bn.

 So, if the Royal Mail is in crisis, no investor wants to buy into it, then surely this must make the Royal Mail a priority issue?  This story is full of Labour lies, Mandelson spin….and it is a shame that our great posties are being hung out to dry.

I remember Gordon Brown saw Post Office Part Privatisation as a virility test on his leadership….hmmmm that means your failed the test Gordon!

Do even his colleagues and former colleagues trust him?

Wow, what is going on with Peter Mandelson?  Power really is going to his head.  He is making some amazing proclamations.  Delusions of grandeur?  How is he helping the Prime Minister this weekend by raising leadership issues and promising the UK wants a single currency?  With friends like these…..who needs Mandelson!

Our First Secretary of State, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills and Lord President of the Council has had a busy 48 Hours.  Mandy was in Berlin proclaiming how the Euro had brought stability to the EU & British people should back it.  He was asked if Britain should scrap the pound and his reply is very revealing:  it was : ‘an important objective for Britain to be in the same currency as the single market that it trades with’.  He rambled on: ‘It is perfectly clear that the Euro has been a great success in anchoring its Eurozone members during this financial crisis.’ (Love to know how Britain would have benefited if we were locked into a Single Currency…. in the good ‘boom’ times our interest rates would have been lower, hence encouraging more credit & debt and in this recession interest rates would be higher than what they currently are…hence worsening the length & depth of this recession).  He concludes:  ‘I hope people will recognize that this represents a major vindication for the single currency’.  Clearly Mandy was enjoying a great German Stein of Beer before and whilst making these remarks.

Mandy knows that this could not be achieved in the short term, not least because the British people dont want it, hence why Gordon, ‘Mr Democratic renewal’, wont have a referendum on the Lisbon treaty because the British people prefer self government and our own currency. 

As this was clearly a testing the water remark and making friends in Europe comment, the Downing street spin machine quickly rubbished it….but with any story, the important thing is to drip feed into the British people’s psyche that we should be in a single currency, hence why Mandy does this.  This will seriously piss off more Eurosceptic members of the Cabinet like Ed Balls and Alastair ‘I am not wanted in this job’ Darling.  Ed Balls might start to get a little fidgety soon.  He was the PM’s bed fellow then Peter has come along, kicked Ed from the bed and locked the bedroom door.  If Gordon Brown starts making positive noise about the Euro in the coming weeks we will have final conclusive proof that Peter is pulling ‘thunderbird Brown’ puppet strings! 

Next up Mr Mandelsen returns to the UK and has a private and confidential audience with the Queen.  What was said?  We wont know!  But I would love to know…who sat on the throne? 

Then today, Mandelsen gives a revealing interview with the Daily Telegraph.  Not the most helpful interview as it again fanned the flames surrounding questions over Gordon Browns leadership.  The Daily Telegraph headline screams, ‘Mandelson: Brown will face another challenge’.  The prediction is that this will take place in the Autumn at the annual Labour Party Conference in Brighton by a group of Labour MP’s who will never be reconciled to Gordon’s Leadership.  It was hilarious seeing Harriet Harman wheeled out onto Sky News today stating that, ‘Well Peter knows…these are difficult times, we are dealing with the recession….blah blah you know the script!  Harriet enjoyed digging at her new boss, you could tell

Any strong PR person would say that once an issue is resting then let it lie.  Peter raising the issue again, just as things were quiet, raises several questions.  Is the issue fully at rest at the moment?  Is more resignations coming?  Interestingly David Miliband stated yesterday that he considered quitting the Government after his close friend James Purnell resigned.  Why would he consider resigning?  He knows in his heart that ‘Bully Brown’ is a liability…but he cant just bring himself to have the courage to resign.  Purnell had that strength.  Miliband doesn’t.  It seems that Milibland he is still wrestling with his conscience and who knows, he may jump.  That would set the cat among the pigeons.  But don’t expect JelliBland Miliband to have the lions heart and courage anytime soon.

Mandelson was the key man who saved Gordon’s bacon.  Hence the reward to Deputy PM by all but name.  (Harriet Harman also lacked the spine to resign when so badly sidelined with Mandy’s new role).  But Mandelson realises that he has only papered over the cracks.  Hence we see today Charles Clarke again pressuring the PM saying that he will come under threat later in the year unless opinion poll ratings improve and Labour does well in by-election results.  The Campaign group of Left-Wing Labour MP’s is considering standing under it’s own manifesto at the next election, which would have a seismic damaging effect on the Party.

Peter knows the Party is split.  It is flawed.  There is little, even this most skillful of politicians can do to influence this.  Hence he is manoeuvring, improving his standing.  Can he seriously harbour realistic ambitions to be the Prime Minister….from the Lords?  What deals has Mandelson made with Brown behind the scenes when he agreed to save him.  Will Gordon stand aside for Peter?  Too many questions.  Too much suscipion.  Too many shady experiences in Mandelson’s past.  What is certain is that Peter would never be elected to power because of his views and character.  Enjoy your time Peter in the spotlight….it wont last much longer….just please end these god like proclamations in the press’.

William Hague of Mandy: ‘The most powerful unelected deputy since Henry VIII appointed Cardinal Wolsey, except Cardinal Wolsey was more sensitive in handling his colleagues’!  This is William Hague at his best…a great orator with a superb sense of humour!