Hazel comes unstuck!

So Hazel Blears faces a motion of no confidence from her beloved local Labour Salford Constituency Party.  Support is gathering amongst local Party branches to kick her out.

But what follows is a really sad state of affairs.  Hazel has acted with conviction over the past few weeks and I and many others have respected Hazel for speaking her mind.  She was right to ridicule Brown’s shameful YouTube performance…’YouTube if you want to!’  Yes, she made mistakes with her expenses but so did many others.  She acted decisively and repaid the Capital Gains Tax.  Few others acted with that speed and some still haven’t repaid monies owed.  Of course she was repaying to save her Cabinet Career.  Brown and the Number 10 spin machine was briefing heavily against her, (brown hated her YouTube jibe and hence the expenses mistake by Blears was perfect ammo).  But Blears was not treated the same as other Ministers over expenses…some far worse than her egChancellor Darling.  As it would with any of us, she was pissed off and this unequal treatment.  Number 10 started briefing that she would be replaced in a coming reshuffle and this was the last straw.  She had nothing to lose.  Full of bitterness at Brown’s singled out treatment of her, she had a hissyfit, resigned and left.  Her resignation note broke with Parliamentary tradition and did not make recognition to the Government or the Prime Minister at all.  It said less than a Purnell’s note but said enough.  Her broach ‘Rocking the Boat’, was amusing aside but in hindsight a little petty.

All good up to there.  She acted on her own conscience and did what she believed was best.  When she heard Purnell was going she must have been jumping out of her booster seat thinking that Brown would be brought down and that she could be part of the new leaders Government.  But the House of Cards, despite losing many cards, stayed aloft.

Brown never forgives, neither do his friends, hence the recriminations start.  Expect Purnell’s Constituents to start getting itchy feet about James.  This is Gordon embarking on his ‘night of the long knives’, exacting his revenge.  So Blears’ constituency party, with no doubt encouragement from Labour HQ, start whingeing and hence the potential of a motion of no confidence.  (TBB does not predict she will be kicked out as the Leadership of the Local Party are currently behind her).  ironic, a motion of no confidence in a woman….an able woman who was in the Cabinet less than a month ago.  Acting and doing what the vast majority of the country would want her to do.

So the worst bit.  Blears destroys all…ALL…her credibility with a grovelling apology.  She regrets the timing of her resignation the night before Local Government elections.  She said:  ‘In hindsight that judgement was wrong.  I should have waited until after the election.  The effect on the party is something I will live forever’.  She also regrets her ‘thoughtless and cruel’ comments about the PM.

Hazel, how does this help women politicians?  How does this help perception of the strength & assertiveness of women in politics?  Playing along to the weak stereotype of a cry baby hard done woman, seeking to win sympathy…and save her seat, sets women in politics back.  Women fight to be seen as leaders.  Look at Margaret Thatcher.  Blears is certainly no Flint….who is also back-peddling faster than Victoria Pendleton!

Hazel.  Politicians must have conviction.  You did.  Your grovelling apology, in which you seem close to tears, undermines your actions.  Your credibility has been shot.  I can’t see your career in Politics reaching high office again.  Thanks for the memories.

Hazel Blears on Telegraph TV…note the close to tears, grovelling, little girl lost routine…win your sympathy?

TBB is back.  Sorry for my absence all.  Unlike a lot of bloggers out there I actually get out and seek to help the Party as best I can.  I have been busy this past week canvassing and absolutely loving meeting and listening to our electorate.  Blogging will continue daily again now.  Thanks for all the great emails of support.

Wow what a week.  Gordon Brown, without any doubt, is the Conservative Party’s biggest electoral asset.  Tories the UK over want him to stay put and carry on as disastrously as he has been doing.  But what is fascinating is watching the Labour Party bottle their best chance of preventing an electoral catastrophe. 

Labour has been stating that the local elections and tomorrow’s European election results are not a ringing endorsement of the Conservative Party.  I think they again misread public mood.  When out canvassing across the SE I know that much of the electorate want to give the three big parties a bloody nose over expenses.  Labour has been all but obliterated from local government.  That must send a chilling realisation through the hearts and minds of Labour MP’s that come a general election their jobs and seats are not safe.  Panic will set in as they meet all their comrades, formerly loyal Labour councillors, now bitter and without office and local status.

The Conservatives had a good night.  But what is very much true is that the Conservatives also faced a protest vote, not to the same extreme as Labour.  Come the general election, many on the doorsteps I met, were protesting now but would be wholeheartedly supporting the Conservatives.  Hence Labour should not underestimate Conservative support across the nation who either stayed at home at the local & Euro elections or voted for one of the fringe parties….can I call them ‘lunatic parties’?

The Conservative Party is well known for its brutality in changing leaders.  This week we have seen the limp wristed and cowardly way senior Labour politicians tip toe round.  So who deserves respect this week and who doesn’t?

Caroline Flint is more than just window dressing, (though she is mighty attractive), but this week we saw her naive naked ambition shine through and she damaged her credibility.  Her pre-recorded eulogy to Gordon brown, was politics at its worse, sickening to hear a grown woman, naively supporting her leader for one reason…a plum Cabinet job the next day.  When Gordon did not give her that job, all the toys were thrown out of the pram.  With a stomp of her stiletto, she penned an acid resignation letter.  If Caroline had not recorded such a sycophantic love-in interview she would have been a heroine of the week.  Instead, she comes across as a desperately ambitious lady who did not get her way and so turned on her leader.  Shame.  I don’t think we have seen the last of Caroline.  Will she give a resignation speech in the Commons this week…..?

James Purnell.  A quiet man of the Cabinet.  A Blair man through and through.  His resignation as polls closed Thursday night was a bolt from the blue and the first person from the Cabinet who had the courage of his convictions to call for Brown to go.  That was a bold move and one that we should all respect.  I do hope that Purnell decides to stage a resignation speech next week as that would seal the mark of a conviction politician.  Purnell would win Politician of the week for me last week.  Let’s also be honest, Purnell’s resignation saved both Miliband and Darling from the sack / demotion.  When Purnell resigned he limited the reshuffle to a few minor moves.  Purnell was the man who put the handcuffs on brown and Brown will hate him forever.  I am sure Tony Blair would have raised a chuckle and smile over his man.  Let’s not forget Blair was at the sharp end of the Brown, Balls, McBride briefing machine for years.  Blair loves Labour but he would certainly shed no tears for Gordon.

David Miliband.  Oh David, what a lack of bottle you have.  Like last year, here was your chance again to stand up and be counted.  But Purnell’s resignation meant that Miliband could say ‘its the Foreign Office or I resign’, hence leaving Brown no option.  Perhaps Miliband’s ambition is reigned in because he wants no part of a massive Labour loss at the general election.  He will bide his time until the time is right.  Many will not forget your weakness David.  Your time has passed.

Perhaps in time Purnell’s resignation will be seen as the moment Gordon Brown was saved.  Had Purnell waited, his effect would have been more devastating.  Perhaps he regrets that.  Without his resignation, Balls would now be Chancellor, as Brown would have  moved Darling, (and Darling would have resigned).  Maybe Brown would have also moved Miliband.  But then, if Brown had lost a Darling or a Miliband or both, Purnell’s resignation then would have been nuclear.  But it did not happen….a miscalculation in hindsight?  Don’t forget Brown had been briefing for weeks that he was planning a radical reshuffle.  The reshuffle yesterday was not what Brown wanted or planned.  It was one to save his bacon.

Alastair Darling.  He is a dark horse.  Again, saved by Purnell.  But he is very conscious that Brown wanted to get rid of him.  Brown lied yesterday.  TBB has a close friend, a journalist, who has been briefed closely by No10 ‘sources’, that Ed Balls was to be the next Chancellor.  All the journalists at the PM’s Press Conference knew this, but brown lied to them.  Disgraceful.  TBB predicted Ed as the next Chancellor some time back.  But Gordon could not move Alastair as Alastair would have resigned and he could not afford a Chancellor going.   Now Alastair, do you really want to remain in a role that you know was not meant for you.  I would not be surprised to see Alastair resign next week.  There is nothing worse that being in a job when you know you are second choice and have been so badly briefed against as Darling has been.  Is Alastair there for the perks and status of Chancellor or does he believe he is the best man for the job with the PM’s support?  That will play with his conscience.

Harriet Harman is the other dark horse.  She keeps saying her time has come.  Now she must be mightily pissed off this weekend.  Mandelson, is all but in name the Deputy PM.  Mandelson has far more say over things than she does. Harriet was elected to the role of Deputy but Peter plays the tune.  She will feel her political grip slipping and will feel bitter.  Hence, do not be surprised to see Harriet Harman resign over the next few days.  And she could have the balls to say that she will stand against the PM and be the person that people crystallise around.  She must be mightily tempted this weekend to steal a march on her opponents.

The moment that someone announces they wish to stand against the PM, credible of course, will be the moment that they all come out of the wood work.  Expect, if Harriet announces her candidacy post her devastating resignation, to then hear Mr Smarmy Alan Johnson, say, ‘in the good of the Party, I will stand to provide the Party with a real choice’.  We can also expect Miliband to throw his hat in but time would have passed by them for him to gain momentum.

Gordon learnt last week the effects of briefing in advance.  It was obvious that Hazel Blears and Jacqui Smith were off in the reshuffle.  No.10 had briefed this in advance for some time.  Why on earth wait to be sacked?  All of us would jump rather than be pushed.  I am sure Brown has learnt that lesson…never leak your reshuffle plans in advance.  Will hazel this week strike a further blow.  Again, she has the right to a resignation statement.  She of all people, has little to lose now.  She is badly stained over expenses, little career options left as her constituents will most likely punish her at the next election, hence why not seal your place in history with a ‘Geoffrey Howe’ resignation speech, laying naked the secrets of life at No.10.

So what next?  The European election results will be catastrophic for Labour.  Conservatives will do well but again voters will have provided a bloody nose as they protest with the minor parties.  Expect UKIP to have a good night.  This will pour the pressure on Gordon even more, ready for Monday.  His lower rank ministerial shuffle will be key for setting the tone of the day for his PLP meeting in the evening.  If junior ministers have some balls and resign, then the PM heads into the PLP meeting drowning and will be pummelled in that meeting.  If another Cabinet Minister, like Harriet Harman or if Miliband or Darling get some spine and resign Monday, then it will be all over for Brown.  No way back.

Brown can survive.  But speak to most Labour supporters, they realise he is an electoral liability.  Imagine him fighting an election campaign, pulling those weird grin faces and speaking in a monotone boring voice at the hustings….dire.  But senior leadership contenders either lack the backbone to challenge or do not want to lead the Party to a massive electoral defeat and potentially be replaced as leader after that.  For us Conservatives, we want Gordon to stay….let’s hope and prey he does, because he is our biggest electoral asset.

This week history can be made…whose names will be then ones remembered in history as the ones to bring down the shortest serving unelected Prime Minister?

Come on Harriet……..’it’s your time’!

Times are hard for the Prime Minster….as he hums ‘Things can only get better’…..but today was not a good day

Gordon suffered another bad day for his Government.  He must wake up in the morning and dread the day ahead.  Today was a nightmare.

Today was bad for 3 reasons for Gordon…..

1)   Another poor Commons Performance at PMQ’s

2)  More bad economic news from the Governor of the Bank of England

3)  His Ministers create headlines for all the wrong reasons.  Jacqui Smith was lambasted at the Police Officers Federation and Hazel Blears is looking like a headless chicken.

And all this before the latest sleeze and expenses are being announced by the Telegraph pre publication tomorrow.

PMQ’s

Brown looked like a defeated figure.  On the other side Cameron has got the wind in his sails.  He is showing real leadership in this current expenses crisis.  Yesterday, as blogged here….he seized the moment, showed real backbone and all commentators acclaimed he had shown the way forward on this issue.  Contrary to Brown, who could only react and stalled on track.

What was clear today is that there is a real paralysis in Gordon Brown’s decision making.  If its not his idea, his stubborn side kicks in.  His only response today at PMQ’s to sensible suggestions from Cameron was to defer decisions, creates committees….wait for reports…wait, delay, defer.  This is a real moment when the nation demands leadership from its politicians.  Brown has been very much off the boil.  He seems a broken man.

Again, Clegg hit hard against the PM and one has to wonder how much more of this Brown can take.  He is facing a real ‘Ricky Hatton’ moment soon. 

Take a look.  Shown on Sky News today:

 The Economy

Next up, The Governor of the Bank of England, again distanced himself from the forecasts of the Treasury.  In the Press Conference he claimed he would love to know how they calculate their forecasts, as they have different methods to those used by the Bank.

The Governor stated that the recession was far deeper than expected and the strength of the recovery is highly uncertain.  It’s quarterly inflation report downgraded the outlook for the economy. 

Let’s face it.  Gordon is pinning his hopes to economic turnaround before the election next May.  News like today, will depress Brown as his options to save his skin and his legacy are rapidly diminishing.

Mervyn King has pointed to a 4.5% year on year decline at it’s lowest point—compare that to Alastair in Wonderland’s budget forecast of 3.5%.  The reason for the downgrading was a worse than expected first quarter of 1.9% decline.  King also said he thought it would take longer than expected for the bank lending to return to good levels. 

The Governor did have some good news.  The weakness of the pound should help inward investment…but oh a punitive tax system on high earners will not help stimulate investors to the UK!!!

As this recession drags on Gordon Brown does less.  He is mired in a sea of inaction over sleaze and government failings.

Here’s Mervyn on the BBC trying to be positive….

Poor Ministers…..bad headlines just keep on following

Wherever Jacqui Smith goes, cameras follow….because they know that there is a news story waiting.  Today Jacqui returned to the scene of an ear bashing last year at the Police Federation.  Jacqui is not a popular Home Secretary, especially in Police circles.  But the moment a question came from the floor on expenses, bang, the rapturous applause and sense of delirium amongst the Police, Jacqui knew that this was another news headline clip.  She is now a lame duck limping from crisis to crisis.  Gordon has no option but to axe her at a reshuffle as she creates all the wrong headlines and is a liability.

Then we had Hazel Blears rushing round today.  She is desperately trying to hold on to her job.  Her jibes over Gordon’s leadership and his YouTube appearance, hurt Gordon.  He is mightily pissed with her.  Then comes her outrageous expenses claim and the No.10 spin doctors start the spin that she will be dumped at the reshuffle.  This stings Hazel into action to repay £13,000—equivalent to capital gains tax she should have paid—-and then today, at the launch of the jobs fund for Social Enterprises Scheme, Hazel tried to impress Gordon by twice—yes twice—saying that she had been up to 2am working.  Gordon’s reaction said it all.  No smile, no recognition.  Just a fed up, saggy cloth face like bagpuss. 

Yes, ‘an old, saggy cloth cat, baggy, and a bit loose at the seams”….sounds just like Gordon Brown after the day he has just had.  Will tomorrow be better……?

Please Please forgive me Gordon………I’ll do anything…even say you are great on YouTube

A week in politics is a long time it is said.

This past week has been an extremely long week for Gordon Brown, what with the distant rumbles of the McBride affair, the Gurkha’s defeat, the mess of MP’s expenses and of course the constant stream of Labour MP’s either pledging their allegiance to him or criticising him, (always a sign of decay to see loyalists pledging support to the leader).

How will this play out?  Well it is political suicide for any Labour MP to start a leadership campaign before the European elections in June. (And the 27 council elections).  If, as seems likely, Labour suffer a shocker, then grassroots bets that a stalking horse will emerge.

Labour MP’s are fearing for their seats. This is all about survival. The old Brown bullying tactics to secure their support are daily becoming ineffective. His aides and whips can’t threaten that an MP won’t be promoted or reach Ministerial level, as Labour MP’s don’t see themselves in Government next time round and self preservation and survival will be their prime motivation. They don’t want to lose their seats, lose their cushy expenses and most importantly don’t want to have to look for a job in the real world.

So post European elections they will be desperate for any rays of hope. Anyone or thing that they can grab the coat tails to save their skins they will do.

The person who wields the dagger never ends with the prize as Michael Heseltine will tell you. Hence expect a stalking horse. The Blairites Stephen Byers or Charles Clarke would have no issue testing the mood of the party. 

Behind that we all know who will be manoeuvring and jockeying for position. David Miliband, still so quiet today and never seen on the news supporting his boss, will of course throw his hat into the ring. Perhaps David will do a John Major and need dental surgery and keep out in the background for the next few weeks!

Hazel Blears looks increasingly likely to want to have a go. Alan Johnson, the unity candidate, would smoothly seek the party mandate. Oh and never forget Harriet Harman. Under no circumstances will she NOT stand, a woman whose ambitions know no limits.

Who would win?  Well, difficult to call, but the smoothness and Union support of Alan Johnson could see him calming the party to support him to prevent electoral meltdown.

How as Conservatives should we feel towards all this. There is no doubt that Gordon Brown is an electoral asset to the Conservatives. He is closely associated with the recession, he is dull, his oratory is poor and uninspiring and will be best displayed in an election campaign and of course, he is stubborn and throws his toys out the pram when he does not get his way. All great stuff the Conservative campaign would elevate and play on.

BUT, a leadership challenge and new leader would inevitably see a bounce in the polls for Labour. It always happens with any change of Leader. Played cleverly, and followed up by an election in October this year, could see Labour limit the meltdown they will face.

What is clear, is that the people feel a time for change and that should see a Conservative Government with a healthy majority.  But the scale of the Labour defeat is yet to be understood and Labour is very much entering a  ’damage limitation mode’.

Many Labour MP’s will tonight be thinking how can I keep my seat  In the words of New Labour, ‘Thing’s can only get better’……perhaps via a new leader?

Watch your back Gordon….