It seems increasingly likely that Gordon Brown will have to be deposed by Labour in the coming weeks/months, to have any chance in the next election.  David Miliband, Harriet Harman, James Purnell and Alan Johnson are the names floating round as the most obvious successors.  But who would Conservatives most fear?  And why should we target that potential leader to dim their brand.

Let’s look at each potential leader.  First to be discounted is Harriet Harman.  Labour, in even their wildest moments would not elect such an erratic performer as Harriet.  Becoming increasingly derided over her poor performance and her bizarre interpretations of equality, Harman is more akin to a national laughing stock and would be made mincemeat at the hustings.  Even in recent stories where she promotes equality and female shortlists, then is seeking to prioritise her husband Jack as a candidate, just show her hypocritical nature.  Hence, even if Labour made her Leader, we have nothing to fear from Harman. 

David Miliband, once with his own powerbase, now is seen as a politician who lacked that final killer instinct to be a leader.  Well known in the press for organising a leadership challenge to Brown last year, Miliband has sniped behind the scenes but never had the courage to show his true courage.  Even when his best friend James Purnell had the courage to resign, when Miliband had his best chance, he bottled it, and this is not forgotten amongst labour supporters.  His time came and past.  He is no political heavyweight and even holding a major Office of State, has made little impact.  Where is he on the news discussing Afghanistan?  Brown would even prefer the hapless Bob Ainsworth represent the Government…that says a lot for Miliband’s position.  It is also well known that Hilary Clinton thinks he is a little boy in a man’s job.

For James Purnell, a formidable potential leader, it is too early for him to strike.  He needs to build credibility and at the moment, amongst Labour supporters there is a whiff of traitor about him.  This whiff will go, after a Labour election defeat and he can then play the ‘I told you card’ and again build his brand.  He is the best Labour leader by a mile…but it is too early for him now.  Hence must be discounted as a threat pre the election.

So opinion polls show it.  Labour Unions Confirm it.  Private Conservative Opinion polls detail it.  Alan Johnson is the most likely next Leader, if Gordon goes pre the election.  Alan comes across superbly well in the media.  ‘That nice bloke next door’, ‘Mr trustworthy’, that ‘happy chappie’, Alan has a lot going for him.  His smile and natural demeanour would go a long way for Labour….and hence is a genuine opponent to be feared. 

Hence this begs a question.  Why have Conservatives not sought to give Alan Johnson special attention now?  Diminish his brand.  Dent his nice guy image.  The more groundwork we do on Johnson now, the better when it comes to any leadership battle.  If we leave it too late to highlight Johnson’s weaknesses and show him for what he is worth, we Conservatives will be seen as the ‘nasty party’ attacking him only when he stands for Leadership.  ‘Oh that poor Mr Johnson being attacked by the Tories…poor Alan’!!!!  Johnson is a potential sharp thorn in our electoral hopes, should Brown go.  Why not blunt his effect in advance?  We don’t need to do that for any other leader.  Johnson….yes….he is the most popular Labour figure.

What frustrates is that Johnson is a ‘Teflon’ Politician.  Very few things stick to him.  But there is much in his past we can target and stick to him.  He has held the following Offices of State for Labour….Secretary of State for Work & Pensions, Secretary of State for Trade & Industry, Secretary of State for Education & Skills, Secretary of State for Health, right up to today as Home Secretary.  We have plenty of ammunition to stick at him.

So Chris Grayling, you have a vital job to perform as shadow to the Home Secretary…..To put the pressure on Johnson.  Help lose his ‘teflon’ image.  Make him seem completely incompetent in his role as Home Secretary.  The Home Office is the political graveyard of many careers.  There are many issues to get Johnson hooked up into.  Knife crime, rising violent crime figures, overcrowding in prisons, rising immigration figures, ID Card Scheme, terrorists getting access to the UK via Student Visas, the intrusion of the Government into our everyday lives & the ‘Big Brother’ state.  Let’s keep him on the back foot put him under the spotlight.  His opinion poll rating will soon decline.

Over to you Chris….help the Party and diminish the potential effect of a Johnson on our electoral hopes.  With Johnson damaged, the more likely Labour will stick with Brown…and that would be a dream scenario for us……

It is no secret that every Conservative loves Gordon Brown.  We all want him to lead the Labour Party into the next election.  He is the Conservatives biggest electoral asset.   Hence, our nightmare scenario would be for Brown to be removed…either voluntarily or deposed!  Are we seeing the start of our worst nightmare?

Why a nightmare?  Well, any new Labour Leader will enjoy a honeymoon period.  That time when the media will focus on their every move.  They will ‘whore’ media attention.  Enjoy copious media coverage when they can distance themselves from the past and paint a vision of the future.  That time…when they can start to make an inroad into the Conservatives poll leads.  Honeymoon periods are as natural as when night follows day…what is unpredictable is their scale.  Whether Labour’s new leader is Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman, David Miliband or James Purnell, matters not….anybody but Gordon will lead to Labour gains in the polls…for a short time.  Enough for an election win?…unlikely, enough for a Hung Parliament?…maybe….limiting damage & preventing Labour meltdown?…most definitely.  Hence, why Conservatives hope their Nightmare on Downing Street never happens.

If Labour enjoy a honeymoon period when their poll ratings turn, this will put the spotlight firmly on the Tories.  This spotlight will be an intolerable strain and will lead some Tories to crack.  Dissenting voices will be heard.  Cries of…the Tories should have revealed more policies…been more aggressive….been tougher on Europe, Immigration, Law & Order, public spending…will start to be heard.  Labour will exploit these cracks for all they are worth.

Yes, we are in the silly season, when the media print and make up stories.  BUT The Mail on Sunday is running a fascinating story today that states that Alastair Darling is getting mightily pissed off with Gordon Brown’s inability to make ground on the Conservatives over the public spending.  Take a read here.  http://tiny.cc/ZMGp8  Following Brown’s botched attempt to sack Darling in the last reshuffle, it appears that Darling has grown some balls…and not Ed Balls! 

The Mail reports that according to sources present, the Chancellor has stated: ‘I am trying to talk sense into that man. He just doesn’t get it –going on about “Tory cuts” is not going to make an impact on the electorate.  ‘We have to frame the debate in terms of our cuts being better than their cuts. The voters aren’t stupid – they know how bad the economic situation is.’  The scathing comments were made in a private conversation with a veteran Labour MP and critic of Mr Brown just before the Commons rose for the summer recess.

The Mail also states that there were claims that backers of Home Secretary Alan Johnson were secretly canvassing ‘non-aligned’ Labour MPs not closely linked to any potential successor.   Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe, who ran Mr Johnson’s unsuccessful Labour deputy leadership bid in 2007, was accused of quietly taking names.” 

Whether true or part of silly season…matters not.  It is a well known truth that Labour MP’s are again openly discussing whether Gordon should lead the Party.  Labour MP’s look at their Majorities and work out if they are safe.  They are listening to their constituents as they spend time meeting the people over this long recess.  Their chances for turning their Party’s fortunes are slimming.

Let’s add our own analysis to this.  The big question is how can Gordon Brown and the Labour Party turn round the current colossal opinion poll gap?  What can be done?  Well, the war in Afghanistan will continue to see losses of soldiers and will rise in unpopularity as the year moves on.  Unemployment and the economy is not out of the woods by a long way.  While some commentators say we are through the worst of the recession, what is also true is unemployment will continue to rise and the UK has a cancerous, spiralling burden of debt, which will require either huge tax rises on middle England and / or swathing cuts in public spending.  Both tough messages to sell.  Swine flu looks like coming back with a vengeance over the winter period, so any election strategist will tell you that Labour need a miracle to come their way.  So Brown has absolutely NO TRUMP cards to pay….none at all.

Labour’s biggest chance lies without Brown at the helm.

So let’s look at the coming months.  If TBB was Lord Mandolsen…the Kingmaker…, we would not want to leave the election until the last possible moment in June next year.  I would also advise against April & May next year.  In April next year, payslips being opened will see workers getting furious about their lower take home pay due to tax rises.  Hence, not the best time to hold an election campaign.   Let’s look at this year.  Bad news stories will continue to build over the coming months.  The Labour Party Conference will not be a happy affair.  It will be rife with leadership plots and bitterness at the prospect of a hammering at the next election.  After that we have the Pre-Budget Report which will no doubt reduce into stories about the tension between Numbers 10 and 11. 

So from a timetable point of view, the Labour Leadership election will need 2 months to run.  Then the new leader will need 3 months approx to enjoy the Honeymoon period.

So, if I was Peter Mandolsen I would recognise that I would want an election in March next year.  The economy should have more positive news stories in place by then.  (don’t forget we have to avoid April & May, due to the new taxes hitting payslips).  So, I would want a new Leader in place to enjoy January, February and March. 

I would want the Leadership process done by Christmas.  So I could wheel out the new Prime Minister over all the happy Xmas telly.  The new Leader can appear ‘nice and jolly’ on Xmas GMTV, Noel’s Christmas Presents, Christmas Top of the Pops, X Factor final etc.  So if we say the leadership election needs 2 months, it really has to start in October……hence expect the chattering to increase. 

Gordon will know this…..his Party know this……anyone attending this years Labour Conference…you will be witnessing Gordon Brown’s farewell Conference Speech…enjoy it…..but will it be the speech where he announces he is resigning, hence triggering a Leadership race.  If he were loyal to the Labour Party, he would do this…but we all know that Gordon has only 1 loyalty and that is to himself.  Or will he hold on and be advised in October that he has to go?  Let’s watch with interest but hope that Gordon can survive… for the sake of the Conservative Party!

The 11th Commandment:  Harriet’s Law.  ‘If I am happy, then it shall be fine for thee’!

By seeking to enhance equality in society, Harriet Harman is fast becoming the ultimate parody of the Big Brother state that George Orwell so eloquently penned about.

Yesterday as the economy is crashing around us, public spending goes through the roof, unemployment dole queues lengthen, graduate prospects dim, soldiers die in Afghanistan backed by little equipment and the swine flu death toll increases, Harriet Harman was preoccupied with espousing her views on a huge issue of national importance…..the sacking of Arlene Phillips as a judge on BBC ‘hit show’ ‘Strictly Come Dancing’.

Now that is state intervention at its most extreme.

In the House of Commons Harman effectively told the BBC to give Arlene Phillips back her job.  She accused the BBC of age discrimination since 66 year old Arlene was replaced by Alesha Dixon, 30.  Harriet bleated, ‘I think it’s absolutely shocking that Arlene Phillips is not going to be a judge on Strictly Come Dancing.  And as Equality Minister, I am suspicious that there is age discrimination there.  So I’d like to take this opportunity of telling the BBC – it is not too late, we want Arlene Phillips in the next edition of Strictly’.  Ooohhhhh that sounds threatening.

Who would you rather have as a judge?

Arlene?

or Alesha?

This is an issue for the public to exert pressure.  A ‘Keep Arlene Phillips’ Facebook group has so far mustered just over 500 names…that hardly points to a public outcry.  Now public pressure may help to revert the BBC decision….but the number of new viewers coming in to watch Alesha on the panel may compensate and prove the decision right.  Let’s not forget that Alesha is a former winner of the show and hugely popular.  Just as Cheryl Cole has done for X Factor, ie bringing in new younger audiences, then maybe Alesha will do the same for Strictly….and that would surely be a good thing for a show focused on Ballroom dancing!

But this is not a matter for the state and the meddling Harriet Harman to get involved with. There was not such an outcry when Cheryl Cole replaced Sharon Osborne.

Next Harman will seek to split up Ant & Dec, as they are both men and hence not an equal representation of the population!

Roll on the election…..Ms Harman is a meddler that should not be allowed the oxygen of publicity to meddle in our affairs. 

The Harman Agenda.  Next up:  Split up Ant & Dec…2 men performing together…sexist and not representative of the population

Turning my attention away from the Ashes, I tuned in to listen to PMQ’s.  Harriet Harman was standing in for Gordon Brown as he is away today.  I should have stayed with the Ashes.

PMQ’s was truly poor today…..no…worse than poor…..shockingly poor, a national disgrace.  William Hague turned the debate back on to public spending and Harriet Harman…not once answered any question.  Why does Speaker Bercow not act?  He speaks tough but acts like a timid schoolboy….more wind & huff & puff than action.  Anyone watching PMQ’s today would have been horrified at it’s irrelevance to everyday life.  So much so, after watching for several weeks, I despair at this 30 mins of executive Scrutiny.  let’s be honest, there is no questioning of the Prime Minister or Deputy.  PMQ’s has become a sham, a pantomime of planted questions and stage managed answers.  Don’t fancy answering a question, just shout out any old answer, that’s fine.  Quite disgraceful.

As people lose their jobs, struggle on declining salaries, fight to pay mortgages, they have the right for our politicians to give real answer not this masquerade ball.  Harman today avoided all talk on spending figures, both capital and total…and just ranted about saving hospitals and schools.  Is this what modern politics has become?

Speaker Bercow should be ashamed of presiding over a session of meaningless banter.  The great people of our country deserve answers, until the Speaker gets teeth to ensure Ministers address answers and add value, we will continue to see this dreadful B movie on Wednesday lunchtimes.

And yes…I remain unimpressed with Bercow…he talks, he threatens…where’s the meat?

A week in politics is a long time it is said.

This past week has been an extremely long week for Gordon Brown, what with the distant rumbles of the McBride affair, the Gurkha’s defeat, the mess of MP’s expenses and of course the constant stream of Labour MP’s either pledging their allegiance to him or criticising him, (always a sign of decay to see loyalists pledging support to the leader).

How will this play out?  Well it is political suicide for any Labour MP to start a leadership campaign before the European elections in June. (And the 27 council elections).  If, as seems likely, Labour suffer a shocker, then grassroots bets that a stalking horse will emerge.

Labour MP’s are fearing for their seats. This is all about survival. The old Brown bullying tactics to secure their support are daily becoming ineffective. His aides and whips can’t threaten that an MP won’t be promoted or reach Ministerial level, as Labour MP’s don’t see themselves in Government next time round and self preservation and survival will be their prime motivation. They don’t want to lose their seats, lose their cushy expenses and most importantly don’t want to have to look for a job in the real world.

So post European elections they will be desperate for any rays of hope. Anyone or thing that they can grab the coat tails to save their skins they will do.

The person who wields the dagger never ends with the prize as Michael Heseltine will tell you. Hence expect a stalking horse. The Blairites Stephen Byers or Charles Clarke would have no issue testing the mood of the party. 

Behind that we all know who will be manoeuvring and jockeying for position. David Miliband, still so quiet today and never seen on the news supporting his boss, will of course throw his hat into the ring. Perhaps David will do a John Major and need dental surgery and keep out in the background for the next few weeks!

Hazel Blears looks increasingly likely to want to have a go. Alan Johnson, the unity candidate, would smoothly seek the party mandate. Oh and never forget Harriet Harman. Under no circumstances will she NOT stand, a woman whose ambitions know no limits.

Who would win?  Well, difficult to call, but the smoothness and Union support of Alan Johnson could see him calming the party to support him to prevent electoral meltdown.

How as Conservatives should we feel towards all this. There is no doubt that Gordon Brown is an electoral asset to the Conservatives. He is closely associated with the recession, he is dull, his oratory is poor and uninspiring and will be best displayed in an election campaign and of course, he is stubborn and throws his toys out the pram when he does not get his way. All great stuff the Conservative campaign would elevate and play on.

BUT, a leadership challenge and new leader would inevitably see a bounce in the polls for Labour. It always happens with any change of Leader. Played cleverly, and followed up by an election in October this year, could see Labour limit the meltdown they will face.

What is clear, is that the people feel a time for change and that should see a Conservative Government with a healthy majority.  But the scale of the Labour defeat is yet to be understood and Labour is very much entering a  ’damage limitation mode’.

Many Labour MP’s will tonight be thinking how can I keep my seat  In the words of New Labour, ‘Thing’s can only get better’……perhaps via a new leader?

Watch your back Gordon….