Much debate in the media about whether the Conservative campaign is faltering.  Why have opinion poll leads halved over recent weeks newspaper headlines scream, especially given the unpopularity of Brown, (even his own aides can’t stand him) and the disastrous effects of this Government’s policies.  Whilst opinion polls go up and down, and there is no need to panic, there is no harm in some friendly advice on how the campaign can sharpen up.  Interesting that extremely few Conservative bloggers are offering advice, in fear no doubt of being seen as disloyal or rocking the boat.  Loyalty is helping the Party not remaining mute!  We all want Cameron in Number 10 in a matter of weeks!  He has to be for the sake of the British people and the future health of our nation: economically, socially, politically.  Another 5 years of Labour would tear us apart.  The consequences are unimaginable.

What is clear is that a resonating theme is that voters don’t quite understand what Conservatives stand for.  They like ‘that nice man David Cameron’.  They maybe don’t get what we stand for in a succinct and simple way.  And yes, we need to articulate our purpose and message.  Labour have defined their campaign under ‘a future fair for all’.  Conservatives have yet to encapsulate those inspirational catch all messages.  Yes, we are not Labour, but can the electorate understand the key differences about what Conservatives bring to the table?  Of course, much will come out in the wash of an election campaign and no doubt there is an element of holding back and building momentum up to the point of a crescendo but what is clear is that the campaign needs .  The question is, will a campaign based on ‘we are NOT Labour’ enough?  There comes the killer question.  Governments lose elections, not Oppositions win them.  Hence how much does an Opposition have to say……?

Question is……..is the best strategy to play safe, appeal to the centre & centre left or is it worth taking some risks, being bold on policy, ensuring there is clear blue water for Conservatives to be fully understood?  Based on a sample of doorstop canvassing, it is clear that turnout could be incredibly low.  People feel disenfranchised with politics and the expenses scandal has shattered trust in our political system.  Whichever Party can mobilise their support in a low turnout election will win.  Sounds simple, but things go deeper than that.

Much is made of the strategy to portray Cameron as an ‘Heir to Blair’.  In many ways this is the battle to seize the centre ground, where the largest pool of voters allegedly resides.  Or does it?  The theory goes that the ‘Blair voters’ that helped Blair win consecutive elections are alive and well and up for attracting to modern Conservatism.  But in many ways, lets also remember that those electors who helped win Margaret Thatcher her election victories are alive and well and it was many of them that transitioned to helping Blair win his elections as they grew disenfranchised with Major’s Conservatives.

In 2010, what must be recognised the ‘Blair’ brand is damaged goods.  Blair may be a great orator and can still charm with his undeniable charisma but the ‘Blair brand’ is now tarnished goods.  A hollow man than smiles nicely is still a hollow man.

Just as Labour had to redefine itself after crushing Tory victories and gloss its socialism as the super sexy ’New Labour’, the Tories have moved to the Left to seize back the Blair Labour vote.

But is this the right strategy?

What is clear on the doorstep is there are a number of key areas that are causing people concern.  Those of the economy, (obviously), but also issues like immigration, defence, law & order and Europe.  Issues that have always been traditionally strong Conservative issues.  But in seeking to seize the centre ground and to pacify all, have we now diminished the key issues and closed the clear blue water in the eyes of the electorate?

Let’s look at each of these issues.  But let’s deal with them simply, exactly as the person on the street sees them.

Immigration

The person on the street feels that immigration is out of control.  That immigrants are coming from all areas of the world, especially Europe, (eg Poland).  There is a fear that population growth will harm the economy.  Too many people in the population overcrowds the health service, larger class sizes, means more competition for jobs in a recession and hence greater unemployment, more benefits being paid, more crowding on public transport, more building of houses on the green belt, greater pollution etc.  All economic issues, some with social ramifications.  Not racial issues as the BNP would state, but economic issues. 

Other issues amplify immigration worries.  Reports that terrorists from Afghanistan and Pakistan are gaining access to the UK under bogus education visas, only adds to the fear and loathing felt by some of the electorate on this issue.  Hence the BNP play and amplify this issue and wrongly present themselves as the saviour.  Interestingly, it is in the Labour heartlands and some of the poorest constituencies that BNP do best.

Conservatives have traditionally been the Party to take a strong line on immigration.  Little is mentioned today, maybe in fear of alienating voters.  But this policy area is key to the electorate and it’s how it is positioned.  In a tough recession, with people losing jobs, the British people understand if there has to be a tighter immigration policy, a strengthening of points entry.  A tightening of education visas.  Immigration is not an extremist issue, just a logical extension of what the country can afford to sustain and help empower.  Let’s hope that this tougher message is part of Cameron’s election battle strategy. 

Law & Order

The voter on the doorstop is frustrated about the inability of police to stem violence in society.  Not the fault of the police, the fault of the tide of bureaucracy the police are drowning under as they spend more time filing reports and seeking to increase budgets via speeding fines.  People sit scared in their houses as young hoodies roam the streets.  Knife crime escalates.  Judges seem perceptibly weaker in their sentencing and incarceration of violent thugs, that the rule of law starts to mean less to all.  Life sentences no longer meaning life sentences.  Prison life seemingly easy as inmates play on videogames and text their mates on the outside with smuggled in mobiles.  Headlines scream out that those defending their property from a violent intruder, get tougher consequences for standing up to a thug…..than the thug!

These are all things that led people to traditionally trust Conservatives on Law & Order.  Conservatives were traditionally seen as tougher on crime…and to coin a phrase, tougher on the causes of crime.  Do people feel Conservatives own this policy area as  naturally today?  Is law & order high enough on the current political agenda?  Do people instantly recognise Chris Grayling?  Not as much as they should do.  Hence, again, a suggestion to talk tougher on law & order as people resonate with this issue.

Europe

Ah Europe.  The policy area touted as always splitting the Party down the middle  The issue to avoid talking about at all costs.  UKIP has been quietly making inroads into some constituencies exploiting Euro fears.  Traditionally the Conservatives have been seen as a Party that relishes the free trade aspects of Europe but none of the political & monetary Union shenanigans that is on the agenda today.  The voter on the doorstep understands that Europe can bring benefits. Cooperation over foreign & defence policy for example.  Free trade.  But they see more and more the bureaucracy and meaningless interventions in everyday life by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels or a clueless European Parliament made up of zealous federalists, at home feasting on the gravy train. 

There’s the point.  Europe has become associated in the hearts and minds of the British people as a major threat to freedom and enterprise.  Intervening in everyday life which has nothing to do with them.  We can see that the federalist dream of a single currency is killing some nations, eg Greece…. and now, to prevent the single currency crashing, Greece is having to be bailed out…followed by Ireland, followed by….etc.  If this recession has taught us one thing is that had we been in the single currency, many more jobs would have been lost, interest rates would have been higher and the economy now would be even more of a train wreck than it was.  Europe is a mess.  The people see that.  Conservatives need to associate ourselves with that public mood.

So, the people want their say on Europe.  They want to be self governed. A tougher line from Conservatives would actually be beneficial as it opens up clear blue water with Labour and Lib Dems. Let’s be bold not fearful of the big European debate.

The Economy

Pure and simple, people understand that you can’t spend what you don’t have.  Spending cuts have to be deep and swift to stabilise the economy and protect our ‘AAA’ credit rating.  So let’s name cuts.  Those many hundreds of Quangos have to go.  The Public Sector has to be cut.  Yes, cuts in health service BUT people understand cutting managers and not nurses or doctors.  Let’s be bold.  A clear and credible plan to reduce national debt over 5 years.

And yes…..as argued before on this blog, get back to cutting income tax & corporation tax at the next budget.  Revenues do rise when tax is cut.  Empirically proven in the mid 80′s recession in the Government’s own red books.  The incentive and entrepreneurship that we need will start to flourish and trickle down.  Inward investment will be attracted.  Those millionaires hiding in tax havens will start to return.  The UK will be seen as a country to invest in again.

Again, tax cuts benefit all.  Yes of course those on higher incomes benefit most.  But who are the ones that have the money to invest, create new companies, create jobs and hence pump more money into the economy.  In the UK we have become too preoccupied for how we protect the poor and generate benefits and support networks for them, then we have in stimulating enterprise…the very things that benefit more people in society.  A boisterous private sector brings benefits that far outweighs a bloated public sector.  And besides where is the public sector funded from…..private sector cash, including those bankers that we so readily bash, but happily visit hospitals their wealth has paid for. 

And yes, let’s reinforce our privatisation beliefs.  There are still parts of the state that can be best served in the private sector, (and shock horror, this includes parts of the NHS & education).  With the money earned from the sale of state assets, public sector debt can be repaid quickly and of course, cutting tax can go hand in hand.

Yes, this requires a mindset change.  The British public started down that route in the Thatcher years but the journey was curtailed as Labour stole the emperors clothes and socialism, more state control, higher taxes, penalising success, union militancy, all crept back in, helped by European legislation and diktats!

Clear Blue Water

So, that brings us back to Conservatives positioning in the middle ground and utilising ‘Heir to Blair’ metaphors.  Is it enough?  Will people vote with their hearts and minds for Conservatives?  Will they stick with the devil they know in Gordon Brown?

One thing is that values, principles and ideologies help the British people understand where a Party is coming from.  Do people understand what the current Conservatives stand for?  Let’s help steer them more clearly & articulately.

Maybe, just maybe, to strengthen the poll gap, to widen clear blue water, the trump cards should be seen as positives, vote winners and a tougher line on immigration, law & order, Europe and the economy will bring home those Blairite voters, (former Thatcher voters many millions of them).

So back to those core simple understandable issues, what do Conservatives represent…..we are

 -              The Party of Enterprise & tax cuts to stimulate wealth for all

-              Committed to reducing the size of the state and leaving individuals to make their own decisions

-              Passionate believers in Privatisation and transferring more state assets to the private sector

-              The Party that is tough on crime and the causes of crime.  Tough sentences.  Tough prisons.  Making the criminal think twice & fearful at the punish they would incur.

-              The Party that is tough on immigration and tightening border control

-              The Party that is for European free trade & enterprise BUT the Party that believes decisions should be taken by Westminster not Brussels.  Powers to be reclaimed back from Europe.

Sounds like a recipe for electoral success!!!!         

Today, of all days, David Cameron has the chance to massacre Gordon Brown at PMQ’s. 

Its is clear there is a division at the heart of Government.

Alastair Darling, Chancellor claims that inside Number 10 ‘the forces of hell’were unleashed on him when he predicted a deep and severe recession and that Damien McBride & Charlie Whelan actively briefed the media against him.

Gordon Brown, of course, denies this,  ”I was never part of anything to do with this.  I would never instruct anybody to do anything other than support my Chancellor.”

So the question is, either Gordon Brown was in control and authorising his inner circle to brief and smear his Chancellor, (in itself the very worst of playground bullying), or, if Brown is right, he would never instruct his advisers to do anything but support his Chancellor, then the accusation must be that he had lost control of the heart of Downing Street and ‘advisers’ were going off doing their own thing.  What else were advisers doing?  Again a very damning position. 

This feels like the court room scene in ‘A Few Good Men’, when Jack Nicholson, (Playing Nathan Jessop), was goaded by Tom Cruise to admit that he had ordered a Code Red.  Nicholson denied ordering his Commanders to enact a Code Red attack on a Private marine, (like Gordon Brown today!).  Nicholson’s Commanders protected him and denied everything.  But Nicholson had to be seen as in total control.  When this assertion was undermined, ie he lacked control or knowledge of what was going on, he cracked.  Lack of control was weakness.  Gordon Brown likes to revel in power, he loves to be seen in control, he is itching to say he ordered a Code Red on Alastair Darling, he just needs David Cameron to rattle his cage hard enough and fire him up to crack. 

So which is it Gordon?

I look forward to DC having some mileage on this in PMQ’s.  DC has his moment as Tom Cruise in that famous scene.  I hope his opening gambit goes something a little like this:  ‘Would the Prime Minister confirm whether he authorised the ‘forces of hell’ on his Chancellor, whether his Chancellor is lying, or whether he was unaware of the briefings taking place by his senior advisers to the media, in which case has he lost complete and utter control of the Downing Street Machine’?

I would also love to see DC draw the comparison with bullying.  ‘Would the Prime Minister agree that one definition of bullying is using advisers to brief against your Chancellor behind their back’?

Should be a fun PMQ’s. 

The Sunday Times YouGov Poll today puts the Conservatives Opinion Poll lead at 6%  That is heading towards hung Parliament territory.  Some Tories have even started to privately start to wonder if the impossible is possible and Labour sneak back in. 

Now is not the time for faint hearts and weak minds.

Now is not the time to talk of hung Parliaments and cozying up to the Lib Dems.

Now IS the time for quiet optimism and strong focus and for the waverers to cut their friendly fire sniping.

Yes, poll leads go up and down.  That is the inevitability of a fickle electorate, affected by the daily news agenda.  Some commentators attribute the Piers Morgan and Gordon Brown love-in interview as helping show the human side of Gordon.  Something the public has allegedly responded to.  But current polls need not create concern or panic.

A message to some of the wavering Tory grassroots.  We are not into the central election campaign yet.  We are in a period of noisy chitter chatter that scores points but does not influence the hearts and minds of the electorate.

Once we get the true election date, then is the time for the sprint to the finish.  Then is the time for Conservatives to reveal more policy flesh and details, (not now when Labour can take the best ideas and use them for themselves…as we know they would do).  Only then, is the time for the really punishing messages of Labour incompetence and how they have truly decimated this great nation of ours.  How they have indebted every family in this country.  That’s their idea of fairness and equality….we all owe effectively £26,000 per household in national debt.  The heavy hitting messages are ready….now is not the time to land heavy blows.  It is all about momentum.  Pickles & Cameron have that in mind.  When you run a marathon you pace yourselves, so you can sprint to the finish.  Conservatives are on track.  The energy for a srpint is well and truly there.

It really feels like, on many fronts, the Conservatives are holding back.  Pulling their punches.  In some ways just toying with Gordon.  Goding him.  Of course the key balance has been that the last thing we would have wanted was for Gordon Brown to have gone, pre the election.  We would not have wanted to fight Labour led by Miliband or Johnson.  In some ways, in those days when Brown was most vulnerable, at PMQ’s, Cameron held off battering him.  In some ways, cameron deserves credit for not killing off gordon and keeping him alive for this election campaign….anyone ever thought that?

Once the campaign starts the truly stark picture can be painted.  Yes Gordon the voters should have a ‘second look’ at Labour’s record.  I am sure Cameron will encourage people to have a third, fourth and fifth look at their shambolic record in Government.  And no-one can come to any conclusion but after 13 years they have been a morally & financially bankrupt government. 

I relish the opportunity to see Gordon Brown and David Cameron in the huge TV election debates.  The electorate will see in Cameron a man with a vision for this country and conversely, Gordon Brown, a dour man, with a furious temper, with an empty basket of policies. 

So wavering Tories.  Don’t lose heart.  Keep the faith.  When the election cry is sounded.  Then is the time that Conservatives will again see their poll ratings grow.  Leading to the most important of polls….general Election day.

 The best is yet to come……

So there is much chatter that Gordon Brown will announce this weekend the date of the General Election….and he wants it sooner rather than later. Iain Dale is getting quite excited by it.

Are we really witnessing the final days of Gordon Brown’s Government…….we can but hope…….

Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

What a bad day for Gordon Brown and New/Old Labour.  (And a great day for former Sun & News of the World man, Andy Coulson, Director of Communications for the Tories).

The Sun newspaper throws its full weight behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.  Major blow for Labour.  Of course we all remember the great Sun headlines in 1992, on the day of the election: ‘If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain, please turn out the lights’.  The election was predicted to be a Labour win and hence when John  Major and the Conservatives defied the polls, the Sun claimed that its readership changed the election result with its help, hence the headline: ‘It’s the Sun wot won it’!  There can be no doubt that the media can shape the agenda and sway opinion…but to what degree is the question.

Welcome back ‘The Sun’, we missed you, although recent editorials have felt distinctly Conservative and your policies on immigration, Europe, tax cuts, law and order have always felt more akin to Conservatives than Labour.

Of course Labour are discounting this move by the Sun.  Brown says its the people who decide elections not the media.  Of course he would say that.  Blair was euphoric when The Sun supported in back in 1997. 

There is no doubt The Sun is a great national weather vane in British politics.  It backs the winner.  It senses that, even with 8 months to go, that the Conservatives will win.  Dont forget that The Sun’s circulation is 3.1m, which then is estimated that 3 people read that one copy, hence nearly a 10m readership!  That’s a huge difference.  Yes of course, The Sun urging people to vote Conservative is a big thing BUT hat is even bigger is the headlines and reporting style moving forward.  Noone will ever forget Neil Kinnock’s head in that lightbulb.  Noone will ever forget former England Manager Graham Taylor’s head shaped into a turnip…’Turnip Taylor’.  This reporting of headlines and caricatures of Brown will have its effect.

So what makes this story so powerful is its timing.  The Sun’s timing is immaculate and devastating.  At the start of the Conference, Labour were in dire straits, the hall was half empty, delegates were quiet and fed up.  Conference was more akin to a morgue.  But still a little flicker of fight back started.  Mandelson started picking them up.  Gordon tried again to rally them.  The hall felt a little more purpose.  But then…….BANG, The Sun kicks all this into touch and the Conference is back to doom and gloom and depression. 

Credit must go to the back room hidden communication maestro Andy Coulson, Conservatives Director of Communications.   Andy may operate in the shadows but his impact is front page.  Whilst Labour champion Mandelson and Alastair Campbell, we have a media maestro in Andy Coulson.  Dont forget Andy used to be very close in Murdoch’s Empire, as a former Editor of The News of the World and editor of The Sun’s showbizz column, ‘Bizarre’.  Surely Andy had a quiet word with his great buddy and new Editor at the Sun Dominic Mohan, (also a former editor of the showbizz column, ‘Bizarre’!  The timing is just too devastating to be left to chance….so credit to you Andy Coulson….great job.

At the time of Andy’s appointment as Conservatives Director of Communications, David Cameron stated: “Andy will make a formidable contribution as a senior member of my team in building the most effective strategy and operation to win the next general election. I look forward very much to working with him”.  DC, good call….Andy has already left his mark !  Pay rise that man!

So bad start to to the day for Gordon….but it gets worse…….

The Financial Times, launched its own equivalent of a damaging editorial on Brown.  Remember the readership of the FT is professionals, entrepreneurs, risk takers, wealth generators.  For the FT to report on Gordon Brown’s views on the failure of the market economy and need for more and more intervention, is as powerful in that community as The Sun announcing its support to its own readership.  This week Labour have been bashing the bankers at every opportunity.  Brown did the same.  This is coming home to roost now and the FT made clear its concern at intervention, market corrections and bashing bankers.  Don’t forget, much of the public spending that Brown has spent has been generated for many years by those bankers.  (And even more Brown spent was on tick!).  Those bankers will be the ones to help repay those debts, hence Brown bashing them, will secure him even less City support.  Not the best City PR strategy Gordon!

But still it gets worse…….

Iain Dale  reports today that the Labour Party is in dire straits financially.  Noone is investing cash in what is seen as a lame duck administration.  Iain reports close Labour sources that state Labour does not have enough cash to front an effective election campaign.  Also the prospect of Labour going bankrupt is raised as there is too little cash to meet its annual loan interest payments of £2 million.  That is a dire situation to be in.  So not only has Labour demonstrated it is inept in running the nation’s finances and landing us with the largest public deficit in history, unsurprisingly it has made mess of its own finances.  Hence, Labour is even more dependent on the Unions, especially UNITE, for its cash.  Expect to see a surge in Labour propaganda to the Left as Labour Leadership placate their comrades in the Unions as they beg for election cash!

Not surprisingly, Gordon, is ‘furious’ today, (in the words of the Evening Standard).  This has shone through……

Did you see Gordon’s interview with Adam Boulton on Sky News today?  Gordon is obviously tired and frustrated but take time out and listen to this poor interview.  He is evasive, he badgers the interviewer.  Worst of all he accuses Adam of being a political propagandist.  He may think that but to say it is poor.  This is the Prime Minister, not a 3rd grade debating contender.  Poor show Gordon, poor show!   

Which led to this headline in today’s Evening Standard.  Is he cracking up?