Much is being made of the Conservatives current polling figures.  Is this a trend?  Is Labour closing the gap?  Has Cameron failed to ‘seal the deal’ with the electorate?  Is Ashcroft right that polls don’t matter because it’s the key swing in a handful of marginal’s that will win this election, (hence the pouring of time & resource into key marginal’s)? 

Of course, who is right we will see…..

In the blog article below, advice given was that the Tories should really start speaking on a handful of key ‘safe’ Tory issues including:  tax cuts, law & order, immigration, Europe.

BUT….What is critical is that the Conservatives need to focus on painting a picture, full of colour & warmth, of the world they want to take us to…..when we are past all the pain…….

Now that may strange and an overly fluffy statement.  But it’s critical for the Conservative strategists to grasp this nettle. 

The focus on ‘Austerity’ and the fact that Britain is broken, the economy a shambles, a debt that is crippling is now well understood by the British public.  George Osborne has been courageous in his ‘sound’ statements on public finances and how he will slash the public debt within four years and that the situation is that dire, he will implement an emergency budget within 50 days of taking office.

Now, October Conference time this message resonated with the mass electorate….and it still does resonate…..but now more so with the financial markets and top economists.  But economists don’t win elections.  It’s the people on the doorstop that matter and push come to shove they may be fearing the prospect of spending cuts, (many of which they don’t know), and potential taxes going up.  This is going to be a fertile area for Labour to exploit…and yes…play on people’s fears in the coming campaign.  Already literature has been circulated saying the Tories will double business rates in certain areas, or close hospital wards as part of its cuts program.  All lies….but Labour will certainly press home any fear for gain of an advantage.

This Government is adopting the stance of an alcoholic.  They have an addiction, (spending tax payers cash…and future cash like there’s no tomorrow).  But like any alcoholic they can’t admit to the problem.  Worse still they don’t want any help in solving their addiction.  The idea of cold turkey is something that is tough to sell to an alcoholic.  Hence the same with tough economic measures.  People fear the medicine.  But people also deny the problem affects them.  ‘How does national debt affect me in my council house…bar…it’s other peoples problems not mine mate’!

The British people love the underdog.  They love to believe in the unbelievable.  They support situations in which winning seems the remotest possibility….but sometimes the impossible happens!  They dream the dream and often dreams are better than reality.  Hence why we always believe that we can win every World Cup we enter, despite often not possessing the talent to progress far.  That belief in hope ably demonstrates that the British people hold dear aspiration as key dream.

It is true that the British people have had to listen to months, maybe years now, of gloomy headlines.  Banks collapsing.  Financial markets in turmoil.  Unemployment rising.  Soldiers dying.  Coupled with a freezing cold winter and heaps of snow, the people must now be at the end of their tether.  They need something to look forward to…..not more doom & gloom.

In many ways Labour strategists are seizing on this theme.  ‘Conservatives talk down Britain’!  ‘Labour does not share Conservative Pessimism’.  ‘Conservatives aim to slash spending and kill the recovery off’.  ‘Inheritance tax cuts for the rich’.  All very familiar slogans coming from the Labour Leadership.

Now, what the Conservatives have to remember is that the current British psyche is a debt culture, (thanks to 13 years of Socialism).  Spend today, pay off tomorrow……but tomorrow never comes.  Debt increases.  Hence why the British have one of the highest personal debt ratios in the G20.  Our people spend what they cannot afford but in the knowledge they can get more credit cards, consolidate etc and put off dealing with their debt.  Hence, in their own minds they ask, ‘Why pay off the debt today, why not leave until tomorrow’. 

What is ‘right’ and what is popular are two different things, especially when it comes to macroeconomic management.

As we head into Spring.  The weather gets warmer.  Sunny weather, sunny outlook!  Nights grow less dark.  People need to again feel optimistic.  To believe in something.  Believe in better times.  The World Cup approaches.  Optimism abounds.

Hence, why the Conservatives campaign must now focus on Aspiration not Austerity.

When people aspire to something better, they work harder….they have a motivation, an inspiration….an aspiration.

That is the ‘promised land’.  The dream of a better tomorrow.

This is the vivid, bright picture that Cameron must now paint in the hearts and minds of the British electorate.

The people are ready to be inspired.  They are listening. 

What will Cameron’s Britain look like in 5 years.  In ten?  What’s the journey?  How will people’s lives be better?

As Conservatives we all know these answers.  But does the mainstream electorate?  Have we articulated our vision enough?  I would say we have a lot more to do.  Turning our campaign into a beacon of hope for all.

Thatcher articulated a dream.  She enthused people with policies of wider home ownership, reduction of the state, privatisation, reduced taxation, Union power in check, strong law & order and of course a sound defence and leading voice on the international stage. 

The current Conservative election campaign is focused on : ‘Year for Change’?  Yes we need change.  But is that enough aspiration for people?  Change…to what is asked by the media and the electorate if polls are to be believed.

Perhaps Conservatives need a new slogan?  How about capturing the present and looking to the future.  ‘Rebuilding Britain for a better tomorrow’.

Labour won in 1997 with the slogan:  ‘Britain deserves better’.  Same principle.  Obama’s was ‘Change we can believe in’. 

Come on DC.  Aspiration not austerity.  It’s the natural next stage to your campaign for the keys to Number 10. 

The Sunday Times YouGov Poll today puts the Conservatives Opinion Poll lead at 6%  That is heading towards hung Parliament territory.  Some Tories have even started to privately start to wonder if the impossible is possible and Labour sneak back in. 

Now is not the time for faint hearts and weak minds.

Now is not the time to talk of hung Parliaments and cozying up to the Lib Dems.

Now IS the time for quiet optimism and strong focus and for the waverers to cut their friendly fire sniping.

Yes, poll leads go up and down.  That is the inevitability of a fickle electorate, affected by the daily news agenda.  Some commentators attribute the Piers Morgan and Gordon Brown love-in interview as helping show the human side of Gordon.  Something the public has allegedly responded to.  But current polls need not create concern or panic.

A message to some of the wavering Tory grassroots.  We are not into the central election campaign yet.  We are in a period of noisy chitter chatter that scores points but does not influence the hearts and minds of the electorate.

Once we get the true election date, then is the time for the sprint to the finish.  Then is the time for Conservatives to reveal more policy flesh and details, (not now when Labour can take the best ideas and use them for themselves…as we know they would do).  Only then, is the time for the really punishing messages of Labour incompetence and how they have truly decimated this great nation of ours.  How they have indebted every family in this country.  That’s their idea of fairness and equality….we all owe effectively £26,000 per household in national debt.  The heavy hitting messages are ready….now is not the time to land heavy blows.  It is all about momentum.  Pickles & Cameron have that in mind.  When you run a marathon you pace yourselves, so you can sprint to the finish.  Conservatives are on track.  The energy for a srpint is well and truly there.

It really feels like, on many fronts, the Conservatives are holding back.  Pulling their punches.  In some ways just toying with Gordon.  Goding him.  Of course the key balance has been that the last thing we would have wanted was for Gordon Brown to have gone, pre the election.  We would not have wanted to fight Labour led by Miliband or Johnson.  In some ways, in those days when Brown was most vulnerable, at PMQ’s, Cameron held off battering him.  In some ways, cameron deserves credit for not killing off gordon and keeping him alive for this election campaign….anyone ever thought that?

Once the campaign starts the truly stark picture can be painted.  Yes Gordon the voters should have a ‘second look’ at Labour’s record.  I am sure Cameron will encourage people to have a third, fourth and fifth look at their shambolic record in Government.  And no-one can come to any conclusion but after 13 years they have been a morally & financially bankrupt government. 

I relish the opportunity to see Gordon Brown and David Cameron in the huge TV election debates.  The electorate will see in Cameron a man with a vision for this country and conversely, Gordon Brown, a dour man, with a furious temper, with an empty basket of policies. 

So wavering Tories.  Don’t lose heart.  Keep the faith.  When the election cry is sounded.  Then is the time that Conservatives will again see their poll ratings grow.  Leading to the most important of polls….general Election day.

 The best is yet to come……

So there is much chatter that Gordon Brown will announce this weekend the date of the General Election….and he wants it sooner rather than later. Iain Dale is getting quite excited by it.

Are we really witnessing the final days of Gordon Brown’s Government…….we can but hope…….

Tory Bear posted this Twitter entry from the Government Chief Whip, Nick Brown, earlier today.  It has now been deleted.  Suspicious eh…….accidental mistake or a deliberate mislead?

This has led to a flurry of speculation, including this was a political move by Nick, to throw some confusion into the political system over the date of the next election.  Could it be the date of the general election or most likely the by election for the Speaker?

As per earlier blogs, TBB is firmly of the belief that a general election will come this summer:

-     Gordon Brown has had enough.  His body language says so.  His performance in PMQ’s again today was poor.  Cameron was all over him and Brown trotted out tired old arguments about Tory spending plans.  This was Brown going through the motions.  He knows that his arguments against an election just don’t cut it with the man on the street.  Private No.10 polling will tell him that.

-     Brown would not want to face an election and then lose it big time and face stepping aside from the leadership to hear new leadership contenders criticising him and his policies.  Any new leader would seek their own identity and need to distance themselves from him.  Brown would HATE that.  He hates criticism and having the next leader be on a platform which differed from him would be a nightmare for him.  He is a control freak who needs to get his own way.

-     Brown would not want to spend the duration of the next Parliament on the backbenches.  After an election loss, he would step aside as leader and for him to watch a new leader would be a pain but not as much as skulking on the backbenches watching David Cameron, with a large Conservative Majority, reverse all his policies and be a popular leader.  That would be living hell for Brown.  This must play heavily on his mind.  5 LONG Gruelling years on the backbenches…..no way. 

-    Brown will not want to sit out until the last minute in May 2010, unless something tangible will change.  The economy will not suddenly turn to boom.  There is no initiative that he can introduce that will turn his Government’s popularity around.  He will be left a victim to events.  That means 12 months of drifting and reacting to events.

-    Brown knows that things will get worse before they get better.  Already he has had the humiliation of being defeated over the Gurkha’s…by his own troops marching through the lobbies with Tories and Lib Dems etc.  He needs the support of the Tories to get through Post Office Part Privatisation and he knows that Cameron could walk away from that.  PMQ’s will become a bigger pain as Cameron hammers him each time with the call for an election.  And most of all he knows that the European and County Council elections will potentially see Labour at a meltdown situation.  If polls are right, in the Euro election, Labour will tie will UKIP…and that is a disaster for Labour.  The Labour grandees would be banging mightily on the Trade Union tables over that.

-    Waiting until May 2010, would be a nightmare for his MP’s.  They are scared of losing their seats.  They are getting rebellious.  Distancing themselves from unpopular policies, to win favour from their local electorate.  An MP will always do what they can to defend their seat and if the Government is unpopular they will be wanting to be sen to have a different opinion and hence rebel.  The Chief Whip knows this and would be advising the PM accordingly.  A year would leave some Labour MP’s verging on insanity.

-    The humiliation of the European Elections and County Elections, will see him play his trump card of a Cabinet Reshuffle but in his heart of hearts he knows that this will not spark a turnaround in Labour fortunes.  It may lead to a 3-4 point rebound but that will quickly be lost again.

-   Lastly, Alastair Darling, continues, even in the Press today, to predict that the economy will start turning around and be in recovery by Christmas.  This is pure fantasy.  The IMF totally disagree and predict the economy still contracting late this year…not recovering.  Quantitative easing as John Redwood says on his blog today is not working.  The economy is teetering…..hence Darling is ‘singing in the bath’ and helping in the plans for their summer campaign. 

Of course Brown denies the planning for an imminent election….he will say it will cause chaos…..to ensure the Tories are caught by surprise…..but a summer election is their best chance to minimise their meltdown, under a new leader.

Hence, this is what TBB forecasts will happen.

Brown, because of all the above, will announce shortly after the European & County Council elections on June 4th that he is to step down as Leader.  He will say his job is done.  He has worked day and night to turn the economy round, brought together G20 and everything is now in place for a recovery.  Due to the tolling hours on his health and family life he will say that it is time for a new Leader to take the Party forward in more positive times.  He will admit that he will be tainted with the recession and he would not like to go into an election with this stigma for the Party.  He will play the card that it is now time for him to spend more time with his family. 

This is the only chance that Labour have left.  No policy initiative or ‘weapon’ at their disposal can turn around this poll in time for a May 2010 election.  Hence the goal will be a new leader, hence a honeymoon period for that leader in the polls and bang….an election.  This new leader will then say, because of all the sleaze in parliament and events of the past few months, we need a new election, fresh faces, fresh ideas…..and call one.  Labour hope this will minimise losses and perhaps the British people will be gullible and scrape them in.

This not only makes common sense but is truly the last option for Labour.  If I were their election strategist this is what I would be advising them, and Brown knows this heart of hearts.

Lord Brown of Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath arise with your £2 million pension agreement.

What other option is there?

Time for a visit to the bookies…….mark my words…Brown is going…a General Election is coming…..Brown sees his time at an end.

David had another strong day. He is rising above the Westminster cesspit and leading from the front for the Conservatives.

Late in the day, he called…as he will continue to do over the coming months….for a general election.  This is a great weapon.  It shows he wants the public to have their say and this will resonate well amongst the electorate.  He knows, as we all do, that Gordon Brown will cling onto power until the last possible minute, but that should not stop David turning the screws.

David launched an online petition calling for an immediate election.  Please show your support..if you so wish of course….and sign this petition at:  http://tiny.cc/BeMTi

Earlier in the day he launched a pledge to cut the cost of politics, deliver more for less, represent Britain’s interests in Europe and help clean up the political system.  All European Conservative Candidates have signed the following pledge that if they get elected they will: 

• Publish details of all travel, including journeys to and from Brussels and Strasbourg and trips to any third countries.

• Publish the names of all staff, contractors and ‘paying agents’ engaged by us.

• Publish all expenses claims online and update them on a quarterly basis. Details included in the Register of Members’ Interests will be published on the Conservative MEPs’ website – providing a ‘one stop shop’ for members of the public to access full disclosure details of their Conservative MEPs’ expenses.

• Continue to oppose – and vote against – any bailout of the MEP pension fund using public money.

• Publish online details of all meetings with lobbyists and interest groups. We will only accept hospitality from lobbyists and interest groups where it is relevant to the role of an MEP, and where this is of a value greater than £50 it will be listed in the Register of Members’ Interests. No Conservative MEP will accept gifts from lobbyists or interest groups.

• Press for these standards to be applied across the European Parliament.

 Constitution

• Support a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the renamed EU Constitution.

• Support the right of the British people to have their say – through a referendum – on any proposed future transfer of competences, as powers are called in EU jargon.

• Oppose any further moves to involve Britain in deeper political integration in the EU.

The Economy

• Keep Britain out of the euro.

• Support the return of social and employment legislation to national control.

• Work for an open and flexible Europe that brings down trade barriers, both within and outside the EU, and set a course for other countries to join the EU subject to a rigorous accession process.

• Work to cut the administration costs of EU legislation by 25 per cent.

• Defend our opt-out from the Working Time Directive.

More for Less

• Oppose wasteful spending throughout the EU, including calling for an end to European Parliament meetings in Strasbourg.

• Work to save up to 1bn Euro a year and for a firm cap on the EU budget.

• Continue to vote against the EU accounts until they are cleared by an auditor.

• Defend the UK’s rebate so we do not pay more than our fair share.

• Press for legislation to provide greater transparency, access to documents and freedom of information in relation to EU institutions.

Let’s hope this is a manifesto for success.