Conference seems a long time ago. I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism. A great Conference. Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction. George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives. David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future. This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.
Things are bleak for this Government. Indeed, for the country.
And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results. Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be. Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby. Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way). Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed. But we are not dominating. Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls. Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’. Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site. But there is more to it than Europe.
What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!
Consider what’s happening around us…..
- The economy. First into recession, last out. And the deepest recession in Europe. We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history. That lie? That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that). That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf! Brown was building debt way before this recession even started. In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black. In the words of the IMF: ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’. ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place.
- Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate. That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped. Benefits and dependency culture set in.
- Class War. Entrepreneurs discouraged. Bankers bashed. Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates. 50% for top earners. 40% threshold frozen. More on NI. VAT back up 2.5%. Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange).
- The Unions start to flex their muscles. Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’! Strikes on the increase, Union militancy. Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee. The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition. The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe! And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers. Who will be out striking first? Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight.
- Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million. Immigration remains unchecked. Asylum seekers lost amongst the population. Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill.
- We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war. Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin. Debates over strategy have been rife. More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government. There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.
- The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair. We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones. Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it. Bliar indeed.
- A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable. Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad. BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess. Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way. Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!
- Europe. The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe. Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!). Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged. Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft. Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes. The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.
- Education, Education, Education. Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority. A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night ! Education failures rack up. 50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university. This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available. The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year. Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18. Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!
- A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives. Want to help out at your local school? Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides? Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.
Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.
Fertile ground to be in Opposition. Too much to choose from. Should be Christmas all year round.
Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence. Criminal incompetence. But they aren’t.
Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference. Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.
Who the hell is being polled? Who is supporting this shower?
As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water. This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field. Schumacher never slowed up. He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground. As we must do now.
So what is wrong?
Why are we not opening up more of a gap?
Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people. Voters don’t quite trust us as yet. They don’t understand what we stand for. They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.
Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders. Maybe…in them we have to trust! We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.
But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion. Emotion is what politics lacks. Emotion means getting personal. It means relating to the ordinary person in the street. Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.
Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies. As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think. I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters. Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).
Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people. They spoke in terms that people understood. They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to. Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see. Emotion is created by personalising issues. Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood. On spending she equated the state to the family. We cannot spend what we cannot afford. When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it. Simple language but the people loved it. The housewife spoke! Powerful and it resonated. More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!
Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money. In him we respect and want to see him do well.
The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices. How do we help her and her daughters.
Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart. How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.
Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds. It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).
Violent crime is not about a percentage. It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.
David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man. Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician. They related to him. A family man. A bereaving dad. A loving husband. And they could associate with that. We see less of the personal side of David of late. That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible. The emotion of the man not emanating out.
Some may shout this down.
But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’. Watch how contestant’s are introduced. How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye. Get that lump in your throat. Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else. You support them. You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them. You feel you are making a difference. We can all point to stories used on shows like this. The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him. Who did not feel emotional.
So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag. By a long way. It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.
So dangerous waters lie ahead. Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late. The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time. Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them. Unheard of! The economy will start to turn round in the new year. Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh. ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls. We are only 10% behind! Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off. We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’!
And things can change in politics. The nightmare scenario still exists. What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year? A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.
Could Labour win the next election. Yes. The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in. Better the devil you know. ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.
Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament. The best of no worlds.
Election loss. Conservatives would tear themselves apart. Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case. Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.
So let’s see more spark to our Opposition. Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder. Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.
We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.
