Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

Like watching a car speeding headfirst at 90mph towards stationary traffic ahead, so we witness Post Officers voting to strike this Christmas.   An act testament to corporate suicide! 

Dave Ward, Deputy Leader of the CWU, (Communications Workers Union), the man elected to protect Post Office members will precide over the insane position of the post office workers committing a very public suicide.  As workers vote to strike, the sad truth is that their actions threaten the future of the post office, millions of jobs and their Union leadership don’t get the gravity of the action they prescribe.

As companies, small business, individuals fight o overthrow the effects of the toughest recession since the 1930’s, the actions of Post Office workers act as a kick in the teeth of the man & woman on the street.  Many businesses, small, medium and large are depending on Christmas sales boosting revenues enough to keep their business solvent.  Note I say solvent, not making profits, just staying afloat. 

Strike action this Christmas will be the tipping point for many busineeses and individuals to investigate alternative ways to get their deliveries out.  A large proportion may decide never to return their business to the Royal Mail.  Rival delivery operators will rightfully be rubbing their hands in glee.  A large scale move away from the Royal Mail will end the critical mass the Post Office depends on, hence ending the viability of the Royal Mail.  The very jobs a Trade Union seeks to protect will be undermined and lost to an act of madness.

Post Office workers need to search their soul.  Do they really think that in the midst of a devastating recession, at a time which brings some much needed relief and joy to the population, (aka Christmas), that they will win public support.  There is more chance of Sooty the Silent Bear winning the singing competition the ‘X Factor’ or Roland Rat dancing to victory in ’Strictly Come Dancing’.  Recent National Post Office strikes have shown that workers quickly return to work as their pay becomes the priority as their wallets empty and their families have less food on the table and recent history shows they win little concessions for their efforts.

Of course the Royal Mail needs to be modernised.  The whole organisation is in a dire mess, with a pensions deficit throttling its stability, (estimated to be £10 billion in deficit).  But strike action is not the answer.  We live in a digital age where email and instant communication is a priority.  But many businesses still depend on traditional post like Ebay and Amazon.  Both are now reviewing the best methods to get their goods out at Xmas. The Post Office could have a very healthy future but until the industrial militancy to any modernising moves is ended, the Post Office will sink like the Titanic.

Dave Ward, see the light, look after your workers, dont allow the biggest corporate suicide to take place. 

The truth will always out.  Gordon Brown, the former ‘Iron Chancellor’, the economic maestro, who so stringently denied there would be any need for spending cuts, the man who branded David Cameron as ‘Mr 10%’, who would savagely cut expenditure….and the man that consistently stated in the House of Commons at PMQ’s and over the summer recess that the choice between Labour and the Conservatives boiled down to: ‘Tory cuts and Labour Investment’, is now the fastest ever convert on the road to damascas, as his right hand man, Ed Balls, has gone on the record to announce spending cuts in education!

Fascinating how Brown’s most loyal lietenant, seen by many as the key architect in election strategy, is first out of the traps to announce spending cuts.  Or first to be thrown under the bus…however you wish to view it!

Remember how Tony Blair said his priority was ‘Education, Education, Education’.  How that phrase sounds so hollow today.  How ironic that education is the first of the Government’s spending cuts to be announced.

There is a fascinating interview in the Sunday Times today.  It details how Labour plan to cut £2bn from the education budget.  That’s 5% of the total schools budget.  The Sunday Times quotes:  “Warning of post-election pay curbs, he added, (Ed Balls), : “If we are going to keep teachers and teaching assistants on the front line, that means we are going to have to be disciplined on public sector pay, including in education.” Teachers’ salaries have risen by 19% in real terms since 1997. Balls said that while teachers’ pay was set by an independent body, he was keen to ensure wage rises in the next three-year deal starting in 2011 were kept low”.

This will result in thousands of staff losing their jobs and frozen/low pay rises amongst teachers.  Most likely to be axed are those not directly teaching, including Headmasters, deputy headmasters, Assistant Heads, Heads of Year, Heads of Department.  Added to this are those Whitehall Officials that advise on curriculum development.

This will inevitably cause an outcry amongst teachers and their Unions over the coming weeks.  Expect to see, teachers balloting for strikes very soon.  ‘The winter of Discontent’ beckons.  Who suffers?  Our children and their education….and the future prospects for the economy as our future talent gets disrupted in its learning.  Sad times……..

TUC week.  The Unions are squaring up to Gordon Brown over potential spending cuts which would impact on jobs, particularly in the public sector.  Again, strikes have been threatened.  A ‘Winter of Discontent’ looms.  So, as we settle back to enjoy the fireworks of the TUC Conference Week, who are the main people to look out for in the Union Movement and who are likely to strike this winter?

AFA: Association of Flight Attendants        General Secretary: Saad Bhatkar 

With all the strife building in the Airline Industry as profits tumble, airlines go out of business and the major airlines like BA struggle, Saad will be a busy man.  Likely to bring his Union of Cabin Crew on strike?  Tough in the prevailing conditions in his industry.  A small voice.

ASLEF:Associated Society of Locomotive Engineers and Firemen    General Secretary: Keith Norman  Membership: m 17,438 f 595 total 18,033

If there is a public sector pay freeze, Norman looks after fire crews and railways railways (drivers, operational supervisors and staff), hence is likely to be a visible man.  Chances of striking are strong.

ATL: Association of Teachers and Lecturers   General Secretary: Dr Mary Bousted    Membership:  m 32,840 f 87,694 total 120,534

The ATL looks after teachers, headteachers, lecturers and teaching support staff in nursery, primary, secondary schools, sixth form and further education colleges staff.  Whilst not as militant as the NASUWT, they will certainly be vocal in a Public Sector pay freeze, so look forward to seeing Mary on screen.  Not the most active on direct action of the teaching Unions.

BALPA: British Air Line Pilots Association  General Secretary: Jim McAuslan   Membership: m 9,191 f 443 total 9,634

Jim represents airline pilots, winchmen and flight engineers (commercial).  Whilst maybe not the most militant Union, the troubles facing Pilots are real, with the likes of BA looking to reduce the number of pilots and flights they have to protect their business in this recession.  Presents issues for Jim.  A small Union but pilots striking obviously grounds planes as their skill is irreplaceable.

Connect telecommunications)   General Secretary :Adrian Askew    Membership :m 15,479 f 3,837 total 19,316

Adrian represents telecommunications, information technology and related industries staff.  His challenge, with his small Union, is how to protect workers in companies like BT.  Small voice in the Dinosaur park.

CWU:(Communication Workers Union)  General Secretary: Billy Hayes   Membership: Membership m 189,133 f 47,546 total 236,679

Pictured here with Billy Hayes on his megaphone, is his Deputy, the very outspoken Dave Ward.  Billy and Dave represent the Royal Mail Group, British Telecom and other telephone companies, Cable TV, Accenture HR Services, the Alliance and Leicester and other related industries.  The chances are very high ie odds on certainly that Billy & Dave will get their workers out on strike over the winter.  Most likely favourites will be the Postal Workers.  Hayes has emerged over the year as a major player and his role in a potential leadership change will be crucial. If Labour face a future winter of discontent it will be Hayes and his colleagues who will have created it.

FBU:  Fire Brigades Union    General Secretary: Matt Wrack  

Matt speaking under a Socialist Workers banner….how unusual.  Fire Brigade workers are known for striking if their pay is frozen.  Given the importance of the fire brigade to society, they have a powerful position to command newspaper headlines, especially if deaths occur because of no fire crews.  Expect to see Matt on your TV screens this Winter if Firemen get a pay freeze.

 GMB    General Secretary: Paul Kenny   Membership: m 326,037 f 264,088 total 590,125

Paul represents Britain’s General Union and has members in public services – primarily NHS, local government, care education; also engineering, construction, shipbuilding, energy, catering, security, civil air transport, aerospace, defence, clothing, textiles, retail, hotel, chemicals, utilities, offshore, food production and distribution.  Kenny is a clever operator who used the private equity industry as an effective stick with which to beat a Labour government he felt was too cosy to the city.   A powerful dinosaur in the jungle and one who could push for any leadership changes in the Labour Party.  Again, one to watch this winter!

NASUWT: National Association of Schoolmasters Union of Women Teachers  General Secretary: Chris Keates  Membership: m 75,601 f 189,601 total 265,202

Chris is well known for being a softer face of Trade Unionism, preferring to be close to Ministers as being in bed with them gets more results than standing outside the bedroom.  But teachers are becoming more and more frustrated.  teaching is in the headlines again, new Government criticisms, 1.2.1 tutors pending to come into the classroom, moves away from targets, frustration with SATS, league tables…and a public sector pay freeze would certainly be the straw that breaks the camels back.  Expect teachers to be striking this winter if pay frozen.

NUT: National Union of Teachers   General Secretary: Christine Blower (acting)    Membership: m 67,708 f 214,881 total 282,589

As per the NASUWT, pressure will be on to strike for the NUT if there is a public sector pay freeze.  So what of Christine?  A militant? “I see myself as someone who militates on behalf of teachers. There have been times when I felt that the voice of the classroom teacher wasn’t in the minds of our union leaders.”  Socialist? “I think there’s a lot to be said for socialism. It doesn’t mean I see myself as a part of any of those organisations that have ’socialist’ in the title.” Feminist? There’s no hesitation. “Absolutely. There is less need for women to be strident, but there is absolutely a need for women to continue the fight for equal pay.” She also points out that 70% of teachers are women, but their union leaders are overwhelmingly male.

PCS: Public and Commercial Services Union   General Secretary: Mark Serwotka 

Mark oversees government departments and agencies, public bodies, private sector information technology and other service companies, all making up the PCS.  Given the cuts needed in the Civil Service and public sector bodies & quangos, Mark will certainly be a regular this winter on Sky News and Newsnight!  Along with Bob Crow, Serwotka is one of the most extreme left union leaders in the country. He supports George Galloway’s Respect party!

POA: Prison Officers’ Association  General Secretary: Brian Caton    Membership: m 26,631 f 9,541 total 36,172

Brian represents:  persons employed in any penal or secure establishment or special hospital as a prison officer, a nursing grade, a non-industrial stores grade and NHS secure forensic staff.    Given…….Prison overcrowding, deteriorating conditions for inmates…..a dangerous profession.  A pay freeze may tip Prison workers into striking.

Prospect      General Secretary: Paul Noon   Membership: m 79,764 f 22,938 total 102,702  

Prospect looks after: engineering, scientific, managerial & professional staff in agriculture, defence, electricity supply, energy, environment, health & safety, heritage, industry, law & order, shipbuilding, transport employees.   Smaller union, wont be as visible in the winter of discontent.

RMT: National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers  General Secretary :Bob Crow  Membership: m 66,862 f 9,044 total 75,906

Bob is well known to this blog.  He represents railways and shipping, underground, road transport.  The chances of his union striking?……bets are off.  Racing certainty.  London Underground have been flat out the block striking this summer and nothing will stop Bob Crowosauras from striking over the winter.  Crow is worshipped by his adoring members, especially when he calls them out on strike. His power to bring London to a halt (usually every other year) is testament to his power with his members.  But, at least one thing we can appreciate.  He is threatning to create his own Political Party and put candidates up against Labour MP’s!  That will split the vote in some areas nicely!

UNISON     General Secretary:Dave Prentis   Membership: m 403,200 f 940,800 total 1,343,000 

Unison represents local government, health care, the water, gas and electricity industries, further and higher education, schools, transport, voluntary sector, housing associations, police support staff.  Unison are a powerful beast in the Union jungle.  Dave threatened Gordon last year with:  “You raise them up, Gordon, or they will bring you down!”     “Our members are worried about how they are going to pay the mortgage or the rent, the gas or electricity, and how they are going to feed their children,” he says. “They have had enough. I cannot ignore that.”   ”Wealthy people are allowed to do whatever they want, out of fear that they will leave the country, so the brunt of the economic turbulence will be borne by working-class people. We have to let the Government know that what it is doing is wrong.”    FYI Dave is reportedly on £89,000 pa!  Increasingly outspoken…..Look forward to seeing Dave Prentis on your screens this winter.

UNITE   General Secretary:  Joint Gen Secs Tony Woodley and Derek Simpson   Membership: m 1,506,057 f 446,453 total 1,952,510

Unite is the general union, created in 2007 from the merger of the TGWU and Amicus.  Represented include: manufacturing, engineering, energy, construction, IT, defence aerospace, motor industry, civil aviation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, steel and metals, shipbuilding, scientists, technologists, professional and managerial staff, electronics and telecommunications, tobacco, food and drink, textiles, ceramics, paper, printing, professional staff in universities, commercial sales, the voluntary sector, banking and financial services, and the National Health Service, administrative, clerical, technical and supervisory; agriculture; building, construction and civil engineering; chemical, oil and rubber manufacture; civil air transport; docks and waterways; food, drink and tobacco; general workers; passenger services; power and engineering; public services; road transport commercial; textiles; vehicle building and automotive.

Who is Derek Simpson?  He is the former leader of Amicus and arguable the stronger leader of this dual leader approach within the massive Unite trade union. An archetypal devil-may-care old style Dinosaur union leader, Simpson has it within his power to create real industrial problems for Gordon Brown. Remember last year when he publicly waved away David Miliband just before the TUC Conference…this was Derek flexing his Union’s muscles.

Woodley is less a media man and public speaker than Derek and this makes him less known.  He still seems to live in the shadow of his predecessor as leader of the TGWU, Bill Morris.

TUC    General Secretary:  Brendan Barber

We must not forget the TUC, it’s their Conference week.  The TUC holds all the Unions together.   Not so long ago the holder of the post of TUC General Secretary would have been more powerful than a Labour Prime Minister.  Barber continues to preside over falling union membership and his influence has been slowly taken by individual union general secretaries.  He is a strong advocate of the “new unionism”, advocating a partnership approach towards companies and the government and a drive to organise new members.  His challenge though is that a new generation of union leaders is coming into office, who are less concerned about relations with the government and more concerned about grassroots organising.  He also believes strongly in the role of Europe as a way of enforcing greater rights in the workplace – and ultimately closer integration through membership of the euro.

So these are the people to watch out for over the coming weeks and months…..misery beckons!

Thatcher stood up to Scargill’s Miners…. will DC inherit a Broken Britain after Brown’s ‘Winter of Discontent’?

So we are off to Jurassic Park this Friday as Postal Workers announce they are to strike.  If you haven’t already, take a look at this definitive Gallery of the Dinosaurs who seek to bring chaos to our lives in the coming months:  http://tiny.cc/ACj2X 

The Communication Workers Union (CWU) said more than 12,000 of its members – one in 13 of all postal workers - would walk out for 24 hours in offices ranging across the country.    There are now real fears Friday’s dispute could be the start of a summer of strike action which could cripple the postal network. A spokesman for the CWU said that 400 Royal Mail offices from around the country had submitted requests to strike.

Dave Ward, Deputy of the CWU stated that: ”There are serious and growing problems in the postal sector which urgently need resolving. We have renewed our offer of a three-month no-strike deal to Royal Mail in return for meaningful talks over modernisation. The current cuts, bullying managers and ever-increasing workloads on a shrinking workforce cannot continue. Pressure and stress is at breaking point for postal workers.”

Dave, ever considered that the definition of a bully may live closer to home?

What makes this strike pointless is that the Royal Mail has stated that more than 90 per cent of its people would still be delivering the mail to their customers. Nine out of 10 of offices were not affected by the planned strikes.

Also funny day for a strike….a Friday.  Nothing to do with making a long weekend for your members Dave?

Look forward to seeing Dave Ward on a tv and on a picket line near you this Friday

The Prince of Darkness…..Peter Pan!

Well well, what do we have here?  Peter Mandelson announced today that Post Office part Privatisation will have to be delayed because…..there is not enough room on the Government’s bustling legislative agenda.  That has to be the best joke Mandy has told in a long time. I love he uses the word that the legislation is being ‘jostled’.

Is this the Palace of Westminster that sees debates curtailed and MP’s kicking around, bored, with the lightest legislative agenda for years?

Let’s be honest.  Brown doesn’t have the support to get this legislation through because it is DEEPLY unpopular amongst his Labour backbench MP’s.  Brown’s MP’s will not support it.  This legislation will not see the light of day as it is officially in the long grass.  The next legislation presented to Parliament regarding the Post Office will be by the Tories after the next election.  Labour have bottled it.

Full credit to David Cameron for offering to ‘help Mandy’ by giving up an Opposition debate day for the bill to get a 2nd reading in the House.  Obviously, Brown won’t go for this but Cameron makes his point well.

Mandy stated that the timing of a deal to to recruit a minority strategic partner from the private sector into the Royal Mail had been “inevitably” affected by the “terrible financial shock” that has hit the markets.  But he said the finances of the Royal Mail were approaching crisis point and the future of the UK’s delivery service depended on a turnaround in Royal Mail’s business.  To back this up he stated:  ”In principle we remain entirely committed to the proposals that were first put forward by an independent review,” Lord Mandelsonsaid.  “(Royal Mail workers) have a pension fund which is facing a deficit of something in the region of £7bn to £8bn.

 So, if the Royal Mail is in crisis, no investor wants to buy into it, then surely this must make the Royal Mail a priority issue?  This story is full of Labour lies, Mandelson spin….and it is a shame that our great posties are being hung out to dry.

I remember Gordon Brown saw Post Office Part Privatisation as a virility test on his leadership….hmmmm that means your failed the test Gordon!

Deputy General Secretary Dave Ward of the Communication Workers Union (CMU)

Well here we go again.  Hot on the steps of the rampant Tube strikers, it seems like the Postal Workers want a day off…sorry…to protest against their pay, their conditions and plans for modernising…..add in some extra reasons yourself….like protesting that Ronaldo has gone to Real Madrid and that Susan Boyle may not perform on the Britain’s Got Talent live roadshow.  This is getting ridiculous and is a return to Britain’s dark industrial days.  Do union leaders never ever learn!  What will be interesting is what action the Government take.  Will they stand aside and just murmur condemnation?  Or will they get involved and seriously warn of the consequences of CMU demands to the Royal Mail and ultimately the very jobs that the CMU seeks to protect.

The walkout – the first of several threatened 24-hour strikes – will be held next Friday, (convienent for a nice long weekend!).  So the Union hopes that their strike action will scare the Government & Royal Mail to acceding to their demands!  It won’t!…never will…and again they will find that they will alienate public support and be lone voices striking in this recessionary climate.  This strike and future planned ones will bring havoc to mail deliveries, with letters taking up to five days to reach their destination, and will force hundreds of Post Office branches to close.  On top of that the strike will also delay payments on credit cards, loans, and water and power bills, leading to punishing charges for thousands of customers.  Post is already in decline, especially as businesses utilise hi tech methods of communication, especially email.

So what’s it all about?  Dave Ward & the CMU are pushing for the average postal worker’s salary to increase from £19,000 to £24,000 over the next five years. We have discussed salaries in a previous blog and you can make your own comparisons here!  But that’s a 27% increase!!!  27%!!! In a recession.  By their own demands they believe that a postal worker is more valauble to society than a paramedic, nurse or teacher! 

Quite sensibly Royal Mail Management say the increase – I have to say this again….a 27% pay rise – cannot be considered at a time when the organisation is facing stiff competition from private rivals.  This is a very true picture.  Interestingly, the CMU’s pay demands would cost the organisation £ 1bn.  Royal Mail bosses have offered staff  instead a 2.5% pay increase.  On top of this, there would be an £800 dividend payment from its Colleague Shares scheme and a 50% share in any savings above budget in an employee’s local unit.

Dave Ward’s response was: ”Royal Mail have been deliberately misleading the public on what this dispute is about. The Union has never asked for a 27% pay rise and we are not opposed in any shape or form to modernisation.  What Royal Mail is doing is not modernisation. The truth is they are intent on cutting services, cutting jobs and cutting pay.’

The Post Office is in a mess.  Whilst recent headline profits announced showed a doubling of annual profits to £321m, this masks a wider and deepening problem with the state-owned bureaucratic giant, highlighted by almost a £4bn increase in its pension deficit to £6.8bn.  While the headline profits are in the millions, the pensions deficit is in the billions and confirms that the Royal Mail remains in a precarious financial position.  This is frightening to see the pensions deficit has doubled this year and concurrently mail volumes are expected to fall by as much as 10% every year.  The Royal Mail needs urgent modernisation and fundamental reform.  Did you know that the Royal Mail had lost business, including an £8m contract with online retailer Amazon, because it had failed to modernise?  It cannot afford to lose such contracts.  Royal Mail needs to bring in private capital to reinvigorate an organisation in desperate need of cash and innovation to help it compete in a deregulated letters market.

Interestingly, Dave Ward was elected Deputy General Secretary as part of an aggressive anti-government ticket and is associated with a group of left-leaning union figures – the so-called “awkward squad”. (including Bob Crow…leader of the Tube strikers).  But unlike some union leaders, he has not argued for cutting ties with Labour, although the CWU has cut its donations to the party by half.

So Dave, for the sake of your members, get real, reconsider your Union’s action.  The Royal Mail is effectively insolvent because of the pensions deficit.  Striking will lose your members popularity, it will speed up plans for modernisation, companies will look at alternative ways of distributing their post…..and ultimately that will mean job losses of postal workers.  Is that really what the CMU wants.  Is that fair on postal workers.  Wake up and smell the coffee!