Wow, what a Conference.  One of the most striking aspects has been the rapid rise of the Charismatic Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, (or BoJo as he has become affectionately known as).  The man’s star is currently shining brighter than a supernova!  Again he fulfilled the role of Conference Darling this week in Manchester.

There can be no doubting his star quality.  Many in the Conference Hall, in the opening session had come in to see the maestro in action.  Boris has that ultimate quality in a politician: likeability.  Before he came on stage, a short video introduced him, highlighting his achievements and then at the end, the familiar thump thump of the EastEnders theme tune boomed into the Conference Hall.  The clip, (also on this site), was shown of Boris meeting and handing his business card to Peggy Mitchell, (Babs Windsor).  The Hall was electric, then the man bounded on stage himself, crumpled suit in place, blonde mop of hair spraying in all directions, to an instant outburst of a spontaneous standing ovation. The audience’s affection for Boris was genuine and heartfelt.

Boris is a natural orator.  He bumbling tones just add to his ‘X-factor’.  When he needs to be he can be eloquent, combined with this he is deeply intelligent but ultimately he understands that to sometimes drive a message home, cripple an opponent and build the excitement in a speech, you need to use humour.  Boris can fulfill the role of Conference Jester very well, but as we know this is sometimes to his detriment and personal brand as a serious politician.  Boris’ political antenna was totally attune to that of the Party faithful.  He wants a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, he wants the abolition of the 50p tax rate, he defended the bankers with panache and exclaimed that it was the bankers money and profits that paid for the public spending boom of Brown, and the hospitals we send our sick and the schools we educate our children in, only benefit from the bankers ability to generate billions of pounds.  He urged “all you banker-bashers out there” to “trust in London”, which he said would lead the country out of recession as it had done in the 1930s. Maybe those bankers aren’t so bad I heard a delegate behind me say. 

‘Cuts’ has been the word of the summer.  Key has been the focus on spending cuts.  Boris changed to to cutting ‘nonsense’.  Boris highlighted a case from last week when it emerged two female officers at the Metropolitan police had been stopped from babysitting each other’s children because they were not registered as childminders. Ofsted warned the women could be prosecuted for being in breach of the Childcare Act. Boris cut to the chase as he proclaimed to Conference: ”If it were up to me I would cut the babysitting monitoring department; I would cut the babysitting monitoring department action day; I would cut the babysitting monitoring department human resources section. “Get rid of this nonsense but don’t cut the investment essential to the UK economy.”

After a speech which lifted the Party faithful, the hall again erupted into a standing ovation.  As quickly as he had come and conquered, he bound of the stage job done, no doubt enjoying the acclamation he had received.

For those that missed it, ITN posted some of the highlights….click below to watch.

Conference speech finished, it was time for Boris to ‘meet the media’.  He pounded from news studio to news studio, journalist to journalist.  Always supportive of Cameron but maintaining the pressure on the leadership on key issues.  Even challenging Osborne to match his spending reductions and efficient use of money in London.  Wherever Boris went, he was pursued by adoring fans and journalists desperate to get him on their news bulletins.  Boris always responded with that natural enthusiasm and blonde mop of scruffy hair flailing in the wind!

Perhaps the best interview of Conference was between the master interviewer Jeremy Paxman and Boris.  This really is a must watch interview.  It is a shame that the BBC has cut some of this as Paxman, his usual sneering self, challenged Boris on the character of David Cameron, his wealth and of course his membership of the now infamous Bullingdon Club.  Boris, turned this questioning on his head and challenged Paxman to reveal his salary.  Repeatedly Boris challenged but Paxman would not relent, (reports place the Paxman salary, of course funded by the British tax payer at between £800k to £1 million…that’s a hefty sum given that the this is 4 times that of the Prime Minister!…up to you if he is worth that…?).  Whilst Boris’ challenge makes some of the final edit, his PR team claim that the whole interview was superb and have challenged the BBC to post the unedited version on iPlayer.  Some of this interview is pure political theatre.  Boris asking Paxman if Newsnight had plunged to the lowest depths when paxman enquired if Cameron had ever thrown a plant pot!  Boris challenges Paxman to get a proper job.  Paxo should stop ‘just’ questioning politicians…….Vintage.  Click below to watch.

Just class.

Boris has been Mayor for over a year now.  He has a lot left to achieve but can point to a number of successes already including freezing council tax, banning alcohol on the tube, devolving more power to local government, opposing a third runway at Heathrow, ousting the ‘hated’ Ian Blair as head of the Met Police,  adding 400 more police on the buses and hence seeing a reduction in violent crime, scrapping the bendy buses and phasing them out, opposing an extension of the congestion charge, the new rent-a-bike scheme.  At Conference he announced he would again freeze the Council Tax next year.  This was Conservatism in action he triumphantly proclaimed.

It was a real pleasure to meet and chat with the man who still has a long way to go in politics.  Boris used to proclaim he wanted to succeed Cameron as Prime Minister, although of late he has stated that being Mayor will be his last big political Job.  Commentators don’t believe him and still see a burning ambition in the man.  Whilst there will not be a vacancy for the Leadership of the Conservative Party for some time, who is to say that after a second term as Mayor, what will be the political situation at that moment of time will be.  Boris, a breath of fresh air in modern politics…keep up the great work BoJo!  A true legend in the making.

What a bad day for Gordon Brown and New/Old Labour.  (And a great day for former Sun & News of the World man, Andy Coulson, Director of Communications for the Tories).

The Sun newspaper throws its full weight behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.  Major blow for Labour.  Of course we all remember the great Sun headlines in 1992, on the day of the election: ‘If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain, please turn out the lights’.  The election was predicted to be a Labour win and hence when John  Major and the Conservatives defied the polls, the Sun claimed that its readership changed the election result with its help, hence the headline: ‘It’s the Sun wot won it’!  There can be no doubt that the media can shape the agenda and sway opinion…but to what degree is the question.

Welcome back ‘The Sun’, we missed you, although recent editorials have felt distinctly Conservative and your policies on immigration, Europe, tax cuts, law and order have always felt more akin to Conservatives than Labour.

Of course Labour are discounting this move by the Sun.  Brown says its the people who decide elections not the media.  Of course he would say that.  Blair was euphoric when The Sun supported in back in 1997. 

There is no doubt The Sun is a great national weather vane in British politics.  It backs the winner.  It senses that, even with 8 months to go, that the Conservatives will win.  Dont forget that The Sun’s circulation is 3.1m, which then is estimated that 3 people read that one copy, hence nearly a 10m readership!  That’s a huge difference.  Yes of course, The Sun urging people to vote Conservative is a big thing BUT hat is even bigger is the headlines and reporting style moving forward.  Noone will ever forget Neil Kinnock’s head in that lightbulb.  Noone will ever forget former England Manager Graham Taylor’s head shaped into a turnip…’Turnip Taylor’.  This reporting of headlines and caricatures of Brown will have its effect.

So what makes this story so powerful is its timing.  The Sun’s timing is immaculate and devastating.  At the start of the Conference, Labour were in dire straits, the hall was half empty, delegates were quiet and fed up.  Conference was more akin to a morgue.  But still a little flicker of fight back started.  Mandelson started picking them up.  Gordon tried again to rally them.  The hall felt a little more purpose.  But then…….BANG, The Sun kicks all this into touch and the Conference is back to doom and gloom and depression. 

Credit must go to the back room hidden communication maestro Andy Coulson, Conservatives Director of Communications.   Andy may operate in the shadows but his impact is front page.  Whilst Labour champion Mandelson and Alastair Campbell, we have a media maestro in Andy Coulson.  Dont forget Andy used to be very close in Murdoch’s Empire, as a former Editor of The News of the World and editor of The Sun’s showbizz column, ‘Bizarre’.  Surely Andy had a quiet word with his great buddy and new Editor at the Sun Dominic Mohan, (also a former editor of the showbizz column, ‘Bizarre’!  The timing is just too devastating to be left to chance….so credit to you Andy Coulson….great job.

At the time of Andy’s appointment as Conservatives Director of Communications, David Cameron stated: “Andy will make a formidable contribution as a senior member of my team in building the most effective strategy and operation to win the next general election. I look forward very much to working with him”.  DC, good call….Andy has already left his mark !  Pay rise that man!

So bad start to to the day for Gordon….but it gets worse…….

The Financial Times, launched its own equivalent of a damaging editorial on Brown.  Remember the readership of the FT is professionals, entrepreneurs, risk takers, wealth generators.  For the FT to report on Gordon Brown’s views on the failure of the market economy and need for more and more intervention, is as powerful in that community as The Sun announcing its support to its own readership.  This week Labour have been bashing the bankers at every opportunity.  Brown did the same.  This is coming home to roost now and the FT made clear its concern at intervention, market corrections and bashing bankers.  Don’t forget, much of the public spending that Brown has spent has been generated for many years by those bankers.  (And even more Brown spent was on tick!).  Those bankers will be the ones to help repay those debts, hence Brown bashing them, will secure him even less City support.  Not the best City PR strategy Gordon!

But still it gets worse…….

Iain Dale  reports today that the Labour Party is in dire straits financially.  Noone is investing cash in what is seen as a lame duck administration.  Iain reports close Labour sources that state Labour does not have enough cash to front an effective election campaign.  Also the prospect of Labour going bankrupt is raised as there is too little cash to meet its annual loan interest payments of £2 million.  That is a dire situation to be in.  So not only has Labour demonstrated it is inept in running the nation’s finances and landing us with the largest public deficit in history, unsurprisingly it has made mess of its own finances.  Hence, Labour is even more dependent on the Unions, especially UNITE, for its cash.  Expect to see a surge in Labour propaganda to the Left as Labour Leadership placate their comrades in the Unions as they beg for election cash!

Not surprisingly, Gordon, is ‘furious’ today, (in the words of the Evening Standard).  This has shone through……

Did you see Gordon’s interview with Adam Boulton on Sky News today?  Gordon is obviously tired and frustrated but take time out and listen to this poor interview.  He is evasive, he badgers the interviewer.  Worst of all he accuses Adam of being a political propagandist.  He may think that but to say it is poor.  This is the Prime Minister, not a 3rd grade debating contender.  Poor show Gordon, poor show!   

Which led to this headline in today’s Evening Standard.  Is he cracking up?

Prime Minister cutting Trident budget.  Prime Minister cutting £2bn off education spending.  More cuts yet to be announced as Whitehall Mandarins currently do the maths.  Where does this leave the Tories?  Is the Emperor trying to steal our clothes?

One of the key differentiators over the summer, ‘clear blue water’, between Labour and Tories has been the early identification by the Conservatives that there needed to be spending cuts to reduce the spiralling deficit.  Pre the recess Gordon Brown was scornful of Cameron’s policies.  At times deeply patronising.  For Brown the choice was between ‘Tory cuts, Labour Investment’.  Cameron was Mr 10%.  The man would axe teachers, health workers, public sector jobs etc.  Oh how times have changed over the Summer.  Brown has been dragged kicking and screaming down the road to Damascus.

Labour have now u-turned.  They have done a complete 180 degree turn and now are prioritising expenditure reviews….only because necessity dictates.  Brown wants to avoid that visit to the IMF, cap in hand, for a bailout of bankrupt Britain….pre the election at least.  So how has this situation developed over the past 2 weeks?  First up, leaked Treasury documents showed that Labour have been in the planning stages of 10% cuts over this summer, (making the abuse that Brown gave Cameron as Mr 10% farcical and deeply offensive).  Ed Balls comes out at the weekend to announce £2bn cuts in education spending.  Yes, this involves axing teaching staff, (something Cameron had been accused of).  Now today, Brown announces he is planning to cut circa 1/4 off Trident spending.  More spending cuts will be announced over the coming weeks.

Trident is an easy card for Brown to play.  He needs his friends on the Left of the Party.  The card carrying dregs left of CND will rejoice that this decision is a move in their direction, albeit only 1 submarine!   It will be interesting to see how Cameron plays the Trident decision.  The Conservatives have always been the Party of Defence.  Known for strong investment into the defence of the realm.  Does he play this card?  Does Cameron say that Labour is leaving the country weaker, as evidenced by the Afghanistan war with soldiers left with insufficient manpower, equipment, armoury, transportation and air power, backing this up with cuts in Trident? 

Or does Cameron focus on economic reality.  He needs to make big cuts.  Not every area can be ring fenced.  The health service is sacrosanct. But cuts need to be made, is Trident one area?  Tough decisions, which will be political by nature.  Cameron also has to be aware of the prevailing times.  Obama’s New World Order, reduce nuclear proliferation.  But times that also pose new dangers.  Unpredictable rogue states like Iran, North Korea, an unstable Pakistan and a real threat of a non conclusion to the Afghanistan War, hence leaving the Taliban regaining control.  Real danger exists and must never be discounted.

The public spending debate is starting to change.  It is no longer a choice of cuts vs. investment.  It is a choice of what gets cut and how much?  As we move forward, ardent critics of the Government’s policy in the past who urged drastic cuts in spending like World Bank, IMF, IOD, CBI, will neutralize their stance / start to make positive noises towards Labour, as they at last announce cuts.  The public sometimes have short memories and hence while the Tories led the way on proposing cuts, the Government will demonstrate they have been cutting, hence moving some way to shortening / blurring the clear blue water we built on this issue.

Now what is the best policy for the Conservatives moving forward?  We could be out manoeuvred by Labour!  This is a key strategic decision by Cameron & team.

Option 1 is silence.  Do the Conservatives need to detail all the policy areas they would cut?  This in effect is the age old argument over whether an Opposition should reveal a shadow budget.  Given spending decisions are being made, unpopularity will follow for this Government.  Already in education, teaching unions are discussing the need for strike action.  Do the Conservatives need to enter into a spending squabble between the Government and Teaching Unions, when we can leave them to it and grab the pop corn and enjoy the fireworks and watch our poll ratings rise.   As other cuts are announced.  More attacks will be made on the Government by those affected.  Strikes will follow.  Public protests.  Marches.  Demonstrations.  All from which we could sit back and watch poll support, in theory rise!

Danger of this strategy is Labour’s response and whether it would resonate with the public.  It is clear that Mandolsen’s strategy in the next election will be, there will be gentle cuts under Labour, precision cuts by a skilled surgeon, and the slogan will be life would be worse under the Tories.  They will state that Tories would propose ‘savage’ cuts.  They will try to paint us as ideologically committed and turned on by spending cuts.  They will paint us as the Party of Unemployment.  This will be the line that every Cabinet Minister will subconsciously try to drum into the electorate’s head.  But will the electorate believe that?  Will they trust a proven lying Government?  That’s the gamble.

Option 2.  That is for the Conservatives to take charge of the spending question.  George Osborne could call a press conference this week and show economic leadership by providing more detail in what Conservatives propose to cut.  We know that Whitehall is preparing the figures and Ministers chewing over what has to be cut.  Before they announce their results, Osborne could have trumped them and then accused Labour of copying Conservative proposals.  We know that Labour are happy to steal our clothing.  Look at Tony Blair.  New Labour was socialism in a pink dress and nice stiletto’s, hiding the evils which lay beneath. 

These are interesting strategic times.  Critical as we approach the next election.  As Conservatives move further towards the Left to attract Liberal Democrat voters, we have to ensure that a clear choice still remains for the electorate.  Choosing between different shades of the same colour can make it easier for bigger poll swings, one way or another.  Electoral volatility is well known in our electoral history.  1992 is a great example, with Major beating the odds, despite poll ratings being wildly wrong.

Of course, Labour are mightily unpopular today.  But what if Brown does decide to retire early because of failing health.  What if the Labour Conference next week is so rebellious, that more follow Charles Clarke and openly criticise Brown, that Brown either quits for the Party of the men in grey coats knock at the doors of Number 10.  The smiling Alan Johnson, the most likely benefactor of Brown going, would enjoy a media bounce and chance to change the Party’s policies, say he is listening to the Public, then the subsequent 3 month honeymoon period, could make it tougher for the Conservatives to achieve the thumping majority we all crave for, (if a snap election had been called to correspond with the honeymoon period).

So what is the clear blue water?  What differentiates us from the other parties?  Well several cards are ours to play.  Core issues like Europe, immigration and taxation are natural Conservative areas.  These are currently on the back burner.  Unplayed winning hands.  Why are they not being played some will ask?

The answer is that polls show that the biggest pool of undecided voters lay in the centre ground.  Lib Dem supporters are volatile.  They are feeling ‘warm and fuzzy’ towards Conservatives.  Given our core supporters want / demand change away from this dreadful Socialist Government, we can bank on their support.  Their votes are in the bank, (however much they want a real swing to the right).  So naturally, as we saw Eric Pickles do last week, the Party seeks to attract Lib Dem voters by playing smooth, sensual, alluring tunes to their supporters to dance to.  Pickles won’t play the Europe card now, as Clegg himself identifies, Lib Dems and Conservatives have different visions of Europe.  Lib Dems love the European Superstate.  Hence, keep Europe off the table.  Discussing Europe will make us less appealing to Lib Dem floaters.  Whilst the Party can, it advisably follows the strategy of winning and building upon core support and keeping away from controversial issues that could be divisive.  No need to rock the boat in the delicate run up to the election.

But….here comes the but….if this Government start to reduce the clear blue water, starts rising in the polls, voters getting more confused at who offers what…..no doubt the European question, Immigration and Tax will raise their head again.  But only if and when the Party need to differentiate itself.  Until that point, the controversial issues will lie sleeping…….

Great to have Scott Newton back with another great blog contribution.  Over to you Scott.  Thanks, as ever, for your support.

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LABOUR INVESTMENT Vs TORY CUTS, ANOTHER PATHOLOGICAL LIE FROM LABOUR! AND WINTER OF DISCONTENT THE SECOND INEVITABLE?
 
So, Gordon Brown has finally said the Dreaded C Word ‘Cuts’. This time he is not referring to the Conservative Party with his Socialist dogmatic attitude. This time he is actually referring to his own Party, His own Policy, and His Understanding that we are officially bankrupt as a Country and the only way to reduce the Public Sector Debt is with Cuts. So the repeated phrases from Brown like, ‘Tory Cuts Vs Labour Investment is out the Window’ just like Gordon Brown and his Labour Government will be in the next General Election
 
I was watching the TUC live on BBC Parliament when the Prime Minister was making his annual Speech. He struck me as being a ‘bundle of Nerves’ when talking to the Congress. The Union’s were being typical of Protectionism for State Employed workers, demanding safety and Continuous Employment for all employees in the Recession. I think people like Brendan Barber & other Trade Union Bosses are living in a Dream World when it comes to making so much of a demand for protectionism and full state employment, when those in the productive Private Sector are really feeling the pinch due to Labour’s awful economic Policy since 1997.  Brown’s acts as Chancellor of keeping no Capital Afloat in the Treasury in case of a rainy Day have led to the demise of this Nation. He Spent, Spent, and Spent as Chancellor. When Sir John Major left office in the Labour win of 1997, interest Rates were Low, Debt’s Low, a Private Sector Economy Booming, a Managed Civil Service, and also Employment falling to record low numbers.  John Major had 1000x the integrity and Economic Competence of Alastair Darling, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown put together.

We have once again arrived at the time old Truth that all Labour Government’s run out of Money. We have a huge Government State squeezing the Productive bit of the Economy, Union’s once again out of control with Demands of Protectionism and more State Jobs being Created, we have a Bankrupt NHS which will have to be seriously looked at in 2011 if it is to be saved as a National Asset, A Welfare State in desperate need of reform, The Dark Prospect’s of Brown and Darling running to the IMF in need of emergency Capital.

So these next 8-9 Month’s before Election time is going to be played very dirty by Labour. But the people of the United Kingdom are wise and not stupid, they will not fall for it this time. So Brown save yourself the Bother, Resign get down to the Palace and Call that General Election! We in the Conservative Party are ready to Govern with a United Team, a United Party and an Economic Plan to move the country forward! And I will put every bit of faith in David and George. There is also the time old truth that Conservative Government always inherit a Bankrupt Nation a Labour Government. And we always seem to fix the problem!
 
Thank you. Scott Newton-Conservative Party Member. Newcastle upon Tyne.

We must do all we can to prevent another Soham but are we in danger of creating a society in which we think every adult approaching children means to do them harm?

That is a sensible question following a report carried in The Daily Telegraph today which is nothing short of disturbing.  The Government’s obsession with intruding into our lives knows no bounds.  This intrusion is the new anti-paedophile database, set up in the wake of the Soham murders, with a goal of stopping paedophiles gaining access to children and prevent inappropriate people working with vulnerable adults.

Under the plan parents could face a £5,000 fine for the simple favour of driving their children’s friends to a sports event or Cub Scout /girl guide meeting if they have not been vetted first by the massive new government agency. 11.3million people – one adult in four – are likely to come under the scrutiny of the Independent Safeguarding Authority. Launched next month this will be the biggest vetting and clearing system in the world. Every person who comes into regular contact with children or the elderly, through work or volunteering, must be approved by ISA officials checking for criminal convictions, disciplinary action and even unproven allegations……and they will have to pay for the pleasure of being on this database!

Anyone who is paid for their efforts will be charged a registration fee of £64.  Now consider that 11.3 million are expected to register, that means a stealth tax of: £723, 200, 000.

None of us want another Soham.   But the scale of what this prying government are introducing covers even those who have the briefest of contact with children.  Iain Dale highlights a typical situation for many.  Iain regularly gets invited to give talks at schools to help educate them in politics.  A totally honourable thing to do.  But Iain correctly states a point of view many will share: ’Well I for one won’t be signing up to it. I don’t need to prove my innocence to anyone. Some of you might rejoice in the fact that it may mean I won’t be able to impart my words of wisdom to schoolkids any longer. Fair enough. But what about the local historian, what about the local bank manager or careers adviser who decides that they are not going to subject themselves to this? In the end it is the kids themselves who will lose out’.  He is totally right judging from the outpouring of emotion across the web today.  Many innocent people don’t want this intrusion into their lives.

Let’s look at the consequences further.

Chris Grayling is right when he states:  ‘We are going to drive away volunteers, we’ll see clubs and activities close down and we’ll end up with more bored young people on our streets’.” – Daily Mail

Grayling went further today when he added: ’This scheme cannot be allowed to go ahead in this way. We would review the whole safeguarding process and scale it back so that common sense applies. Of course we have to check out those people who have jobs working with children, but the idea that we would vet 11 million parents is complete nonsense’.  Well said Chris!

Graeme Archer, on ConservativeHome, makes a great argument on CentreRight.

‘This insidious, filthy law – actually, would it be possible to design a worse one? – will not protect children – that much is obvious – but it will lead to:

• fewer adults giving up their time to help in their communities;
• an increase in mutual distrust;
• the fostering of the corrosive anti-child culture which causes most men to shy away from so much as talking to a child in public, even if the child is in visible distress;
• an increase in unchecked antisocial behaviour (who’s going to risk approaching a gang of teenage troublemakers now?);
• a waste of money on pointless bureaucracy’.

The best thing to do with this proposal?  Ditch it.  Scrap it.  As the Information Commisioner’s Office, the data watchdog highlights, a large database could see personal details being wrongly disclosed.  We have seen the Government lose many data disks over the years.  This is one step too far.  An intrusion into our civil liberty……

We must do all be can to prevent another Soham.  But let’s have sensible & workable suggestions.

Is Gordon Brown ill?  Reports are flying round the blogs and much chattering is taking place amongst MP’s / Westminster village that he is suffering from depression and is taking powerful anti depressants.

Brown certainly has a low profile at the moment but it could explain why he took a month off work and Mandelson is fronting the majority of tv interviews for the Government.  However, this story may be all rubbish and Brown is keeping a low profile because he is deeply unpopular?  The truth will out.

Iain Dale is carrying a well crafted piece today in which he raises this question and states that if Brown is suffering some form of illness he deserves our compassion, not our insults.  Really suggest that you read Iain’s pece as he deals with this issue compassionately and thoughtfully. 

This story all surfaced last week on John Ward’s blog.  Iain Dale details how the story is escalating:  ‘Matthew Norman wrote about it in yesterday’s Independent and Guido Fawkes has given the full details on his blog. Even lefty John Harrisis speculating about the Prime Minister’s state of mind on Comment is Free. And he’s not the first. Behind the scenes in Westminster it is a regular topic of conversation. Labour MPs discuss it, along with the rest of us’.

Guido breaks into more detail: ‘In the broadsheets Simon Heffer, Matthew Parris have touched on the issue and this morning Matthew Norman in the Independent has explicitly referred to the allegation that Gordon Brown is taking “heavy duty antidepressants known as MAOIs (Monoamine Oxidase Inhibitors)”. The evidence is first and foremost his behaviour – what some have previously put down to a lack of EQ or emotional intelligence, is now being attributed to drugs to control his dark depressions.  We all know the stories of rages, flying Nokias, smashed laser printers, tables kicked over and crying Downing Street secretaries subjected to foul-mouthed tirades.  We have seen the deranged YouTube performances, the bizarre facial contortions, the incongruent emotional responses – smiling when offering condolences, frowning when giving best wishes’.

Depression is nothing new in politics.  In faction it is very common.  Winston Churchill, the greatest war time Prime Minister, sufferered from serious mental health problems.  Churchill, at times, suffered crippling depression.  He called this ‘black dog’.  His medecine was…..alcohol.

What is depression?   It is very common in the UK.  Especially in times like these with a recession.

The signs

People with depression can feel hopelessly sad. Sometimes it is even possible to be depressed without having the usual ‘miserable’ feelings. There are lots of different signs which may point to depressive illness – the main ones are listed below. Keep in mind that most depressed people only suffer from a few of these feelings.

Changed feelings

You may have noticed  a change in the way you are responding or feeling about things. The following points can be indications that it could be depression:

• Persistent sadness, lasting two weeks or more;
• Loss of interest in your favourite things;
• Finding no fun or enjoyment in life;
• Loss of self-confidence;
• Feeling guilty, bad, unlikeable, or not good enough;
• Feeling empty inside;
• Feeling useless or unable to cope with life;
• Feeling bored all the time;
• Increased feelings of anxiety;
• Can’t see a future for yourself;
• Thinking everything is pointless;
• Thinking life is not worth living;
• Thoughts of death or suicide;
• Wanting to go to sleep and never wake up again;
• Especially low mood in the mornings;
• Feeling more irritable, frustrated, or aggressive than usual;
• Trouble concentrating on things, poor memory.

Given the HUGE pressure that Gordon is under, it would not be surprising if this had taken its toll.  Devastating local and European elections, a fleet of ministerial resignations, JUST holding onto his job, a collapsing economy, a faltering war in Afghanistan with soldiers returning ever more frequently in body bags…this would test the best of us.

Now any one suffering from depression/any form of illness deserves compassion.  But we also have to consider the Office of State he presides over, (if this story is true).  This is the Head of the Armed Forces, finger on the Nuclear button.  This is the man who has to lead this country out of recession and take delicately based economic decisions.  Whilst someone suffering from depression can do the job, (as Churchill did), today is a different scenario with 24/7 media coverage, global challenges being thrown by the hour, an economy trying to climb the cliff back to growth, unemployment still growing, a war that sees no ends.  This requires a leader at the top of their game.

Interestingly, I was re-reading previous blogs I have posted:  This was posted on 20th May

‘Hence, this is what TBB forecasts will happen.   Brown, because of all the above, will announce that he is to step down as Leader.  He will say his job is done.  He has worked day and night to turn the economy round, brought together G20 and everything is now in place for a recovery.  Due to the tolling hours on his health and family life he will say that it is time for a new Leader to take the Party forward in more positive times.  He will admit that he will be tainted with the recession and he would not like to go into an election with this stigma for the Party.  He will play the card that it is now time for him to spend more time with his family.   This is the only chance that Labour have left.  No policy initiative or ‘weapon’ at their disposal can turn around this poll in time for a May 2010 election.  Hence the goal will be a new leader, hence a honeymoon period for that leader in the polls and bang….an election.  This new leader will then say, because of all the sleaze in parliament and events of the past few months, we need a new election, fresh faces, fresh ideas…..and call one.  Labour hope this will minimise losses and perhaps the British people will be gullible and scrape them in’.

As a private individual we should feel compassion for anyone suffering depression, if Brown is.  I am sure many in the nation will feel real sympathy for Brown.  But we also deserve the truth.  Which lobby journalist will ask this question and we have a right to know the state of health of our Prime Minister….?

Any reader of this site knows I am not a fan of Speaker Bercow.  I have been critical of his election to the role, (by majority of Labour MP’s and very few Conservative supporters), his changing of the traditions of Parliament, (eg Speaker’s dressage and plans for upheaving centuries of tradition with new procedures in the House), and his attitude in the role, (very patronising and arrogant).  I also frown on the way he has treated the Conservative Party.  It is well rumoured he was planning a defection to the Labour Party and the seismic shift in his political philosophy from right of Thatcher surging faster than Usian Bolt at full stride…to the Left, is either the greater conversion ever on the road to Damascus or purely political opportunism.  You decide.  So I struggle to have any loyalty to a man who I perceive did not treat our Party honourably in recent years.  Please correct me if I am wrong in my views.

So news come today that Nigel Farage, MEP and Leader of UKIP will be standing against Speaker Bercow at the next election in Buckingham.  A tough act for Farage given it is one of the safest Conservative Seats in the country with a Majority of 13,325.  Readers will know that I suggested that Esther Rantzen would be better positioned to challenge Bercow than stand in Luton.  There are also credible rumours of an Independent Conservative standing for the seat.

By convention, no Party fields a candidate against a sitting Speaker.  But Farage is going to break that convention.

Nigel told the Daily Telegraph today: “This man represents all that is wrong with British politics today. He was embroiled in the expenses saga and he presides over a Parliament that virtually does nothing. He is not a Conservative and yet he is sitting in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. It means the people of Buckingham cannot vote for a Conservative even if they want to. This is a part of England where we did very well in the European elections and local elections. We are very well organised and strong and I intend to fight this very hard to become the MP.”

This makes it a whole new ball game.  Labour and Lib Dems will now have to consider their response and whether to field candidates.

This makes it hard for us Conservatives.  I am sure the Conservative Leadership would value the chance for fresh Speakership elections in the new Parliament, hence having more say in the role, than the mockery of a Bercow, elected by pure Labour vindictiveness to elect a Speaker they knew us Conservatives would not want. 

So, Bercow is now in effect an Independent candidate.  Whilst he came from the Conservative Party, he no longer speaks with a Conservative tongue.  He cannot as he has to remain neutral.  Therefore, as Farage is standing, the people of Buckingham now have the beginning of choice.  Other parties may follow.  If Labour and the Lib Dems follow suit and decide to field candidates, then the only Party with no voice is the Conservatives.  How bizarre is that?   Bercow is technically Conservative but will not be representing the Party as he has to now remain neutral.  So perhaps we have to consider fielding a true Conservative candidate.  This will undermine Bercow and may be in danger of splitting the Conservative vote.  But that is a decision for Cameron to take.

Oh how I wish Dan Hannan could throw his hat into the ring.

If you were a voter in Buckingham, and the choice boiled purely down to Bercow and Farage, which way would you go?  Whilst I am Conservative to the core, (voted Conservative all my life)…I can see why people will be mightily tempted to vote Farage.  If they do, should we see that as disloyalty?