Peter Mandelson is a clever politician.  Loathed by Conservative benches, Mandelson is a shrewd opportunist who can manipulate popular opinion and massage  media messaging.  Brown relies on him implicitly now.  In the recent leadership debacle we learn daily new details of the lengths that Mandelson went to support Brown and prop him up, including speaking with each of the potential major leadership challenges to persuade them they were better off under Brown.  Without Mandelson it seems that Brown was a gonner!

There is nothing Mandelson likes more than power.  He is as addicted to power as much as any drug addict is to cocaine.  He simply will not stand by while Labour continues to drown.  Norwich North would have been a hammer blow to him.  Reportedly he loves Labour, perhaps unfairly I would say he loves power more.  Hence he MUST be now debating how the Labour Party can win / limit damage at the next election?  Norwich North would have confirmed to him that Brown is the Conservatives biggest advantage. 

So let’s put ourselves into Mandelson’s shoes.  He knows that Gordon Brown is now a liability and that there is little chance of Brown being in any way in a position to turn this ship around.  When and how to remove Brown is the best questionfor Mandelson to answer….and to plan for.

Labour strategicians are banking on good economic news coming the end of this year and the beginning of next year.  Labour will not want to wait till the end of June and most likely aim for an April election.  With the new tax year starting in April, people will see higher tax bills reducing their net pay.  This is not the message that a winning Government would want the electorate to experience pre going to the Polls, hence early April would be the optimal last date for an election.  S0 then Mandy must work back if April is the election date…when would a new leader be best placed to take the helm of the ship?  (calling an election before December would be suicidal as green shoots of recovery would not be felt by the electorate and that is what the Government are banking on to help their electoral chances).

So when would it be best to get rid of Brown?  Conference season in October?  This would not make much sense.  When replacing the leader, parties benefit for a short honeymoon period, whatever the circumstances.  The new Labour Leader could seek to distance themselves from the policies and unpopularity of Brown, to paint a new and rosy picture of what life would be like under their leadership but this strategy only works if an election comes within 2/3 months of replacing the leader.  If Brown was ousted in October, and Labour hope to benefit from better economic news and people to see recession is ending, hence aim for an April election, the new leader in place in October would be out of the honeymoon period and mired in events and any bad news.

So, if I was Mandy, (what a scary thought), I would aim for Brown to step aside in late November, with the Labour Party going through a ‘disciplined’ leadership battle, with a new Leader in place by the New Year.  New Year, New Leader.  Promote the hell out of him/her, (heaven forbid if Harman), in the New Year and then call an election for the last week of March/first week of April.

Agree?  Let’s see what happens……

Mandelson smells defeat under Brown….

James Purnell is one of the most gifted politicians in this current Parliament.  Yes, I spend most of my time on this blog attacking Labour and its policies but I have a respect for Purnell.  He is an intelligent guy, with a vision and principles.  He will debate on issues and is rarely drawn into the slogan politics that Brown is so fond of.  Purnell’s resignation, after polls closed after the Local & European elections, was done with honesty and yet dignity.  Not a career politician and certainly not bearing the naked ambition of a Caroline Flint that saw her bend beliefs to put career greed ahead of conviction & principles.

Purnell, has kept his counsel, until now, with an interesting interview in Sunday’s Guardian.  Purnell tells the Guardian that: “Over the last six months I had been thinking, ‘has the elastic stretched beyond the point where I feel I am being true to myself?’”    http://tiny.cc/wGhbE  This is a great indication that Purnell was not at ease with the direction of Labour’s strategy and the way policies were being presented/communicated to the electorate.  Certainly Purnell found the ’10% Tory cuts’ messaging was ‘crude’.

The Guardian interview highlights several interesting insights.  Purnell feels that the government has failed to properly make the positive case for immigration.  This is a growing issue amongst the electorate that the BNP and also UKIP will seek to play on in the next election.  As discussed on this blog, immigration is an issue that as Purnell notes, Labour is not addressing and on the Conservative side, arguably, not being played as a strength.  “The answer is to not end up looking tongue-tied doing some things you don’t actually believe, but working out what the argument is which might be able to win people round to your point of view which is, ‘will we be a more successful country if we open up in terms of free trade, in terms of Labour markets. We’re going to be a more interesting country’.” Purnell also feels that the Labour Government is “allergic” to a debate on the wisdom of faith schools. 

Following the furore of MP’s expenses and the perception of current Politics plunging in the eyes of the electorate, Purnell suggests that Labour should hold a referendum on electoral reform at the next election.  This is an interesting proposition and will be fascinating to see if Cameron picks up this mantle.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Purnell dictates that he did not expect fellow cabinet members to follow his lead and resign.  Purnell always asserted he was not part of a coup attempt….and would certainly not admit that to us now post event.  We know that David Miliband certainly thought about resigning but bottled it.  Purnell and Milliband are great mates.  He calls Miliband “one of the most serious politicians of his generation”.  He has obviously seen something that has passed the rest of us by. 

Purnell is known by many as a staunch Blairite….which was a thorn that Brown hated in his Cabinet.  Fascinatingly, he thinks times have changed and now is not the time for nostalgia back to the Blair days.  He said: “All those Blairite, New Labour labels … for me, it’s a bit like Britpop – I feel nostalgic for it, it was absolutely right for its time but that time was 1994. It’s a very different feeling being 12 years into government from the idealism of the start, but we need to recapture that idealism, not by living in the past or by aping New Labour or just sticking to the old tunes. We need to open up New Labour, reinvent it and then eventually move beyond it.”  Sounds like Purnell will be doing all he can to help this policy debate…certainly not something that Brown will applaud. 

In the meantime Purnell is assuming a role at the thinktank Demos in September.  At Demos Purnell joins figures critical of the prime minister’s style and agenda. Blair’s former speech writer Phil Collins is a Demos trustee. Alan Milburn, the former health secretary and critic, is also a board member.  The thinktank was formed in the mid-90s by former Blair adviser Geoff Mulgan and though it has frequently published pamphlets by non-Labour figures, government sources were taken bu surprise when Demos appointed to its board, on it’s 16th birthday anniversary, politicians from the Conservative and Lib Dem parties including the shadow chancellor, George Osborne, and Treasury spokesman for the Lib Dems, Vince Cable.

Purnell does not see a return to front line politics.  He is revelling being away from those red boxes….as is Jacqui Smith.  Purnell is bound to say that as Brown is hardly likely to offer him a new role pre the election….after that election Brown will be deposed and the influence of Purnell will again rise.  Maybe right to the top as he wont be tainted by the Cabinet Collective Policies that Miliband and Johnson will be tainted with.   Maybe the Leadership Campaign is over before it even starts…if ‘Teflon’ Purnell continues as he is now.

We have not heard the last of this man….expect great things from this thinking politician…he may have turned his back on Brown but not on politics!

The private sector isn’t working….the public sector is….!

As the private sector faces thousands of job losses each week, the public sector continues merrily recruiting away….especially roles with high salaries.  This is fast becoming a national scandal….that needs the oxygen of publicity….to show how we are wasting tax payers money recruiting so many BUREAUCRATIC red tape, pen pushing roles in areas like education and the NHS….if this doesn’t make your blood boil….!!!

Take a look at the Sunday Times Appointment section today and also delve online to www.timesonline.co.uk/jobs, here’s a selection of the roles being recruited….yes, only a selection—that’s the scary thing, the public sector and all those Government Quangos are busily burning OUR money:

East of England Ambulance service NHS Trust 

All these roles are stated to have:  Attractive Salaries + Pension + Relocation

Chief Operating Officer

Director of Strategy & Business Development

Director of Finance & Deputy Chief Executive

Director of Business Transformation

Director of Clinical Quality (part Time)

Clinical Director (Part time)

NHS Devon

Chief Executive c £140,000 plus more for an exceptional candidate

Kent County Council

Service Director Learning / Service Director Vulnerable Children – £104,000 plus excellent bens

Association of Police Authorities

Chief Executive Association of Police Authorities £115k – £130k

Department for Transport

Non-Executive Director Civil Aviation authority c £44,000 for 2 days a week)

NHS Borders

Executive Director of Finance - up to £87,366, plus on-call payment, benefits and relocation

Executive Director of Nursing & midwifery – up to £87,366, plus on-call payment, benefits & relocation

South London Healthcare NHS Trust

Director of Financial Operations (band 9 £80-£100,000)

Associate Director of Financial services * 4  (YES * 4)  (band 8d £68-£83,000)

The Christie NHS Foundation Trust

CIO – £90,000 plus benefits

Department for Children, Schools & Families

Head, National Safeguarding Delivery Unit – c £100,000

DfT Shared Services – Head of Business Change £57,300 – £75,000

Department for Children, Schools and Families  &  Department of Health

Communications Champion   Attractive Salary  (Will no doubt be £90k & above)

Hillingdon (London’s second largest Borough)

Deputy Director: Children and Family services £92,000 – £125,000

Deputy Director: Learning Effectiveness & major Transformation – £92,000 – £125,000

Environment Agency

Head of Planning & Performance – £75,000 plus bonus + bens

Isle of Wight Council

Project Director for Schools Capital Programme – up to £100,000

Yes, the gravy train is merrily continuing on.  MP’s Expenses have been exposed….now it’s time to turn the spotlight on our Public services and how they are ripping us off.  This is a recession, we have a cancerous spiralling national debt and yet, we can carry on recruiting in the Public sector, for what seen as non essential roles…or in some cases roles that can be merged into each other to save costs.

If this was the private sector………well it would never happen and at least if it did it is not with OUR money.

I hope you agree this is a national scandal?

Andy Burnham & Ed Balls oversee two of the biggest spending Departments in Whitehall…with lot’s of exciting new jobs being advertsed….no wonder they have the time to have fun playing on a swing!!!

Reading today’s interview with Alastair Darling in the Daily Telegraph, (http://tiny.cc/7CBpf), things become even clearer about recent events and it is now clear that Purnell, unintentionally saved the careers of Alastair Darling, David Miliband and ……. even helped Gordon Brown survive and continue as PM!

As we know Brown offered Darling the role of Foreign Secretary or Home Secretary the week before the reshuffle.  He was desperate for Ed Balls to be his Chancellor in the final hours in the bunker pre his expulsion at the next election.  Brown had been touting via the no.10 spin machine that this was going to be a radical reshuffle, a fresh start.  But all best plans…..go to waste!  Brown was at the mercy of events out of his control…..first off, Brown was hammered in the local and European elections, then pummelled to the ground by a series of Ministerial resignations, including that of James Purnell, just as polls had closed, (the day before the reshuffle).  Purnell’s was devastating but as events proved….his timing was off!  Brown was now on the back foot…all talk of a radical reshuffle was off the agenda…this was preservation and damage limitation time for Brown.  Hence the tepid and timid reshuffle….none of us are under any illusion that Brown wanted shot of darling and was prepared to see Miliband moved from the Foreign Office as we learn today.

What the shame of this whole episode is we will never know what Brown would have done in his recent reshuffle had James Purnell not resigned pre the reshuffle.  Purnell saved the jobs of both Darling and Miliband.  Purnell made it impossible to move any heavyweights as had Brown faced any more Cabinet resignations he was a goner!.  Miliband & Darling owe Purnell a lot.  I am sure that privately Purnell regrets his resignation timing.  If he had waited just a day or two, Brown would have displaced Darling and / or Miliband and they would have been prime for resignation.  Then Purnell could have acted to devastating effect and brought Darling and / or Miliband with him, to which Brown would never have survived.  That is clear.

So ultimately Purnell can even be credited for saving the Premiership of Gordon Brown!  How bizarre is that? 

No wonder Gordon Brown is laughing……..

Interesting interview in today’s Daily Telegraph with Mr ‘unsackable’, Alastair Darling.  Take a look here: http://tiny.cc/7CBpf

Darling lifts the lid and provides more information around the recent reshuffle and period of Ministerial resignations.  Gordon Brown did indeed, a week before the reshuffle, offer Darling a choice of Foreign Secretary or Home Secretary…but Darling states that Brown did not ask him to move on from the Chancellorship at any stage.  Bizarre justification that from Darling.  If someone offers you new positions it normally means they want you to move on or preparing you mentally for a change in job.  Shows Gordon Brown is a very weak leader if he offers new roles, especially the Home Office, which is a demotion from the great office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, without stating he intended to move Darling to his face but was leaking it to the national media on a daily basis.  As we would expect, Peter Mandolsen called Darling but credit to Darling he dug in.

I am also sure that David Miliband will this morning be fascinated to read that his job was offered to Alastair Darling.  David must rue the day that his political courage was sucked from his body and must pray that like the Cowardly Lion in the Wizard of Oz he can find courage in his soul one day to stand!  So now we know that we have two Cabinet ministers in place that ideally Gordon Brown wanted to move.  How humiliating for both Darling and Miliband to know they are Brown’s second or third choices!  This also shows that by offering Darling the role of Foreign Secretary, he was desperate for Ed Balls to be Chancellor.  (More on this subject in my next blog).

Darling, giving his ‘unsackable’ position is finally growing some balls, (and not Ed Balls!).  Darling has looked uneasy on the front benches as Brown has trotted out some dreadful lies about public spending figures.  Interestingly the Telegraph asserts in its article that:  ‘Mr Darling is clearly not signed up to the “Labour investment v Tory cuts” mantra being spouted by his boss. At all times, he says, the Government must be honest with people about what lies ahead. There is still pain to come — unemployment will rise into next year — and the Government will have to take some difficult decisions about spending’.   The Telegraph assert that : ’Mr Darling is willing to say what Mr Brown will not: that there will be less cash to go around after the next election. He wants, he says, to be honest with the voters. “Both political parties will have to set out their stalls.” The next government will have to take difficult decisions and “you have to have a mandate for that”.  The friction over policy and strategy is obviously rife at the heart of Government.  Credit to Darling for being more attuned to the public and realistic than Gordon Brown.

Darling goes on to admit, which is a departure from Brown again, that he wants to reverse recent tax increases….and this includes the planned rise in the top rate of tax to 50p in the £ above £150,000.  He told the Telegraph:  “Looking into the future I would like to be able to reduce tax. Raising the top rate is something I didn’t want to do.”  Does that imply that the policy was a Brown dictat?  Or just a temporary decision he needed to do for economic reasons….but as TBB has demonstrated, cutting taxes increases tax receipts, raising income tax, decreases tax receipts…as Darling is now seeing for himself!

Darling is starting to move closer to the Tories views on spending.  He agrees that public spending has radically increased in the past 10 years, in fact it hasdoubled in 10 years, hence there is  – there is scope for reductions.  Darling notes that the country is wealthier and the public sector is well padded and therefore some cuts can be made.  Have you heard Brown say this?  This is Darling acting more in line with analyst opinion like the World bank, IMF, IFS, IOD, CBI etc…and his friend Mervyn King at the BOE.

With calls for a complete Spending review pre the election, Darling states that he and the Treasury are carrying out a review of departmental spending covering 50% of Government spending.  Darling states that colleagues cant assume ‘they are getting another penny from me’.  Finally, tougher language from the Chancellor and HM Treasury.  But this is at odds with what his boss has been saying.  It will be fascinating to see if Brown alters his tact next week at PMQ’s!

Well Darling seems liberated.  Knowing he cant be sacked as the spotlight will be back on his boss, he seems more free to act, speak his mind.  I am sure these are character traits that Brown does not like….but then what can he do….he cant sack Darling.  Alastair finally comes of age….and grows balls!

The days of patronising and back patting are coming to an end for Darling from bully Brown!