Remember this classic election poster?  Labour’s tax bombshell.  The Sunday Telegraph reveals that according to Treasury Documents Labour, if they win the next election, are planning to increase income tax by 3p in the pound. The natural inclination of the Socialists returns.  Raising taxes on hard working families.  The truth is out.  Labour return to type!

The Treasury documents show a  big rise in projected income tax receipts between now and 2011-12, as well as in following years.  This points to Labour raising taxes immediately if they won the next election!  What a scary, nightmare scenario!

The Sunday Telegraph states that: “….Treasury tables showing the anticipated income tax receipts in the years up to 2013-14. The total falls to £140.5 billion this year, which most experts expect will include the worst of the recession, before rising slightly to £144.7 billion in 2010-11, which covers the period when the next election is expected to be held. In 2011-12, however, the projected income tax “take” leaps to £161.6 billion. The Tories said that rise could not be accounted for by the planned 50p tax rate for those on incomes of more than £150,000, which would raise just under £2 billion in 2011-12, or by people returning to work as the economy started to recover. They said the £14.8 billion “unexplained” increase in receipts would be the equivalent of putting 3p on the standard rate of income tax. The tables showed that receipts would rise still further in subsequent years, ending up at £191.8 billion in 2013-14 — a rise of 32.55 per cent from 2010-11. Further rises could lead to the amount taken through the tax increasing by almost a third by 2013-14, the Tories said. They claimed the rise in receipts could not be accounted for by people returning to work and the introduction of the new 50p top-rate tax on earnings of more than £150,000 a year”.

This boils down to the crux of the debate at the next election.  Labour will raise taxes.  Conservatives will cut spending, where prudent to do so.

The more we learn of Labour’s economic strategy, the better educated the electorate will become.  This election manifesto may well become the ‘longest suicide note in history’ for Labour. 

The more that is revealed the more interesting Labour’s Conference will be.  If poll ratings continue to decline, Gordon Brown may not survive his own Conference.  That’s unless he is, as rumours persist, is planning to announce that he is standing down as Prime Minister in his Conference speech…..?

John Prescott has just posted this image for his Facebook fans.  It is a response to Eric Pickles Tory T-Shirt Competition.    As you can see it features Iain Dale, (looking trim and tanned there Iain!), with the t-shirt slogan, ‘I’m with Stupid’, with a road sign arrow pointing up at Iain’s face.

This really demonstrates to me that we are in for one hell of a negative campaign from Labour.  This is a former Deputy Prime Minister delving into the gutter to gain cheap laughs by rude,  juventile attacks on a much loved blogger.  This was a personal attack and offensive to modern politics. 

Prescott should be shamed at such smear tactics.

Even one of his supporters, wrote on Prescott’s Facebook page:  James Delargy:  ‘JP – it’s funny – but childish and negative! Go forth should be a positive debate … look up my surname you’ll see my family of MPs and councillors are as red as red can be! Mud slinging isn’t the answer to getting votes, mate! Remember the Tory’s devil eyes campaign? That disgusted me beyond words – please stick to what you’re going to do and leave the infantile stuff to the others’!

Iain, if you are reading this, at least that Prescott sees you as a threat.

McBride and Draper may be gone but the principles of smear and gutter politics remain in the veins of the Labour Leadership and grandees.  Disgusting!

Is Gordon Brown ill?  Reports are flying round the blogs and much chattering is taking place amongst MP’s / Westminster village that he is suffering from depression and is taking powerful anti depressants.

Brown certainly has a low profile at the moment but it could explain why he took a month off work and Mandelson is fronting the majority of tv interviews for the Government.  However, this story may be all rubbish and Brown is keeping a low profile because he is deeply unpopular?  The truth will out.

Iain Dale is carrying a well crafted piece today in which he raises this question and states that if Brown is suffering some form of illness he deserves our compassion, not our insults.  Really suggest that you read Iain’s pece as he deals with this issue compassionately and thoughtfully. 

This story all surfaced last week on John Ward’s blog.  Iain Dale details how the story is escalating:  ‘Matthew Norman wrote about it in yesterday’s Independent and Guido Fawkes has given the full details on his blog. Even lefty John Harrisis speculating about the Prime Minister’s state of mind on Comment is Free. And he’s not the first. Behind the scenes in Westminster it is a regular topic of conversation. Labour MPs discuss it, along with the rest of us’.

Guido breaks into more detail: ‘In the broadsheets Simon Heffer, Matthew Parris have touched on the issue and this morning Matthew Norman in the Independent has explicitly referred to the allegation that Gordon Brown is taking “heavy duty antidepressants known as MAOIs (Monoamine Oxidase Inhibitors)”. The evidence is first and foremost his behaviour – what some have previously put down to a lack of EQ or emotional intelligence, is now being attributed to drugs to control his dark depressions.  We all know the stories of rages, flying Nokias, smashed laser printers, tables kicked over and crying Downing Street secretaries subjected to foul-mouthed tirades.  We have seen the deranged YouTube performances, the bizarre facial contortions, the incongruent emotional responses – smiling when offering condolences, frowning when giving best wishes’.

Depression is nothing new in politics.  In faction it is very common.  Winston Churchill, the greatest war time Prime Minister, sufferered from serious mental health problems.  Churchill, at times, suffered crippling depression.  He called this ‘black dog’.  His medecine was…..alcohol.

What is depression?   It is very common in the UK.  Especially in times like these with a recession.

The signs

People with depression can feel hopelessly sad. Sometimes it is even possible to be depressed without having the usual ‘miserable’ feelings. There are lots of different signs which may point to depressive illness – the main ones are listed below. Keep in mind that most depressed people only suffer from a few of these feelings.

Changed feelings

You may have noticed  a change in the way you are responding or feeling about things. The following points can be indications that it could be depression:

• Persistent sadness, lasting two weeks or more;
• Loss of interest in your favourite things;
• Finding no fun or enjoyment in life;
• Loss of self-confidence;
• Feeling guilty, bad, unlikeable, or not good enough;
• Feeling empty inside;
• Feeling useless or unable to cope with life;
• Feeling bored all the time;
• Increased feelings of anxiety;
• Can’t see a future for yourself;
• Thinking everything is pointless;
• Thinking life is not worth living;
• Thoughts of death or suicide;
• Wanting to go to sleep and never wake up again;
• Especially low mood in the mornings;
• Feeling more irritable, frustrated, or aggressive than usual;
• Trouble concentrating on things, poor memory.

Given the HUGE pressure that Gordon is under, it would not be surprising if this had taken its toll.  Devastating local and European elections, a fleet of ministerial resignations, JUST holding onto his job, a collapsing economy, a faltering war in Afghanistan with soldiers returning ever more frequently in body bags…this would test the best of us.

Now any one suffering from depression/any form of illness deserves compassion.  But we also have to consider the Office of State he presides over, (if this story is true).  This is the Head of the Armed Forces, finger on the Nuclear button.  This is the man who has to lead this country out of recession and take delicately based economic decisions.  Whilst someone suffering from depression can do the job, (as Churchill did), today is a different scenario with 24/7 media coverage, global challenges being thrown by the hour, an economy trying to climb the cliff back to growth, unemployment still growing, a war that sees no ends.  This requires a leader at the top of their game.

Interestingly, I was re-reading previous blogs I have posted:  This was posted on 20th May

‘Hence, this is what TBB forecasts will happen.   Brown, because of all the above, will announce that he is to step down as Leader.  He will say his job is done.  He has worked day and night to turn the economy round, brought together G20 and everything is now in place for a recovery.  Due to the tolling hours on his health and family life he will say that it is time for a new Leader to take the Party forward in more positive times.  He will admit that he will be tainted with the recession and he would not like to go into an election with this stigma for the Party.  He will play the card that it is now time for him to spend more time with his family.   This is the only chance that Labour have left.  No policy initiative or ‘weapon’ at their disposal can turn around this poll in time for a May 2010 election.  Hence the goal will be a new leader, hence a honeymoon period for that leader in the polls and bang….an election.  This new leader will then say, because of all the sleaze in parliament and events of the past few months, we need a new election, fresh faces, fresh ideas…..and call one.  Labour hope this will minimise losses and perhaps the British people will be gullible and scrape them in’.

As a private individual we should feel compassion for anyone suffering depression, if Brown is.  I am sure many in the nation will feel real sympathy for Brown.  But we also deserve the truth.  Which lobby journalist will ask this question and we have a right to know the state of health of our Prime Minister….?

Is Gordon Brown running scared?  Is he frit?  What’s he got to lose by agreeing in principle to Sky News Leaders Election Debate?  Clearly he is troubled by facing the nation and the cameras against Cameron.

His only reply to Sky is that he will consider it when we head into the election campaign.  News to you Gordon….the campaign has started.  The election gun has been fired.  These Party Conferences signal the last chance to rally the troops before the fight starts in earnest.

Gordon’s lack of ability to state his mind is very concerning.  First up did he support Megrahi’s release?  Answer:  He found the scenes of the Libyans celebrating his release disturbing.  No comment on the release.  Next up the Sky Leaders debate.  No answer…yes/no!  What is the point of having a Leader of the Country if he sits on the fence and will not commit an opinion or view?  That’s the definition of a lack of leadership.

Credit to David Cameron for accepting, (indeed championing this cause).  He has the most to lose from such a debate.  Gordon has the most to gain as he is so far behind in the polls, with a demoralised Party, this could be his best option.  But he knows that his drab, monotone dulcet tones will not come across well against a slick, exciting, passionate, inspiring David Cameron.  I bet Mandolsen would relish the chance!

Credit as well to Nick Clegg for accepting…..that just leaves one empty seat.

Just as Have I Got News For You, empty chaired Neil Hattersley and placed a tub of lard in his place, Sky News can empthy chair Brown and replace with a plate of yellow jelly…..probably made of tougher stuff than Gordon!

Great work by Sky.  They trumped the BBC and started this initiative.  I hope it comes off for them.

If you have not done so yet, click on the link below and sign up to Sky’s Online Petition to stage a televised Leaders Election Debate/s.

It seems increasingly likely that Gordon Brown will have to be deposed by Labour in the coming weeks/months, to have any chance in the next election.  David Miliband, Harriet Harman, James Purnell and Alan Johnson are the names floating round as the most obvious successors.  But who would Conservatives most fear?  And why should we target that potential leader to dim their brand.

Let’s look at each potential leader.  First to be discounted is Harriet Harman.  Labour, in even their wildest moments would not elect such an erratic performer as Harriet.  Becoming increasingly derided over her poor performance and her bizarre interpretations of equality, Harman is more akin to a national laughing stock and would be made mincemeat at the hustings.  Even in recent stories where she promotes equality and female shortlists, then is seeking to prioritise her husband Jack as a candidate, just show her hypocritical nature.  Hence, even if Labour made her Leader, we have nothing to fear from Harman. 

David Miliband, once with his own powerbase, now is seen as a politician who lacked that final killer instinct to be a leader.  Well known in the press for organising a leadership challenge to Brown last year, Miliband has sniped behind the scenes but never had the courage to show his true courage.  Even when his best friend James Purnell had the courage to resign, when Miliband had his best chance, he bottled it, and this is not forgotten amongst labour supporters.  His time came and past.  He is no political heavyweight and even holding a major Office of State, has made little impact.  Where is he on the news discussing Afghanistan?  Brown would even prefer the hapless Bob Ainsworth represent the Government…that says a lot for Miliband’s position.  It is also well known that Hilary Clinton thinks he is a little boy in a man’s job.

For James Purnell, a formidable potential leader, it is too early for him to strike.  He needs to build credibility and at the moment, amongst Labour supporters there is a whiff of traitor about him.  This whiff will go, after a Labour election defeat and he can then play the ‘I told you card’ and again build his brand.  He is the best Labour leader by a mile…but it is too early for him now.  Hence must be discounted as a threat pre the election.

So opinion polls show it.  Labour Unions Confirm it.  Private Conservative Opinion polls detail it.  Alan Johnson is the most likely next Leader, if Gordon goes pre the election.  Alan comes across superbly well in the media.  ‘That nice bloke next door’, ‘Mr trustworthy’, that ‘happy chappie’, Alan has a lot going for him.  His smile and natural demeanour would go a long way for Labour….and hence is a genuine opponent to be feared. 

Hence this begs a question.  Why have Conservatives not sought to give Alan Johnson special attention now?  Diminish his brand.  Dent his nice guy image.  The more groundwork we do on Johnson now, the better when it comes to any leadership battle.  If we leave it too late to highlight Johnson’s weaknesses and show him for what he is worth, we Conservatives will be seen as the ‘nasty party’ attacking him only when he stands for Leadership.  ‘Oh that poor Mr Johnson being attacked by the Tories…poor Alan’!!!!  Johnson is a potential sharp thorn in our electoral hopes, should Brown go.  Why not blunt his effect in advance?  We don’t need to do that for any other leader.  Johnson….yes….he is the most popular Labour figure.

What frustrates is that Johnson is a ‘Teflon’ Politician.  Very few things stick to him.  But there is much in his past we can target and stick to him.  He has held the following Offices of State for Labour….Secretary of State for Work & Pensions, Secretary of State for Trade & Industry, Secretary of State for Education & Skills, Secretary of State for Health, right up to today as Home Secretary.  We have plenty of ammunition to stick at him.

So Chris Grayling, you have a vital job to perform as shadow to the Home Secretary…..To put the pressure on Johnson.  Help lose his ‘teflon’ image.  Make him seem completely incompetent in his role as Home Secretary.  The Home Office is the political graveyard of many careers.  There are many issues to get Johnson hooked up into.  Knife crime, rising violent crime figures, overcrowding in prisons, rising immigration figures, ID Card Scheme, terrorists getting access to the UK via Student Visas, the intrusion of the Government into our everyday lives & the ‘Big Brother’ state.  Let’s keep him on the back foot put him under the spotlight.  His opinion poll rating will soon decline.

Over to you Chris….help the Party and diminish the potential effect of a Johnson on our electoral hopes.  With Johnson damaged, the more likely Labour will stick with Brown…and that would be a dream scenario for us……

It is no secret that every Conservative loves Gordon Brown.  We all want him to lead the Labour Party into the next election.  He is the Conservatives biggest electoral asset.   Hence, our nightmare scenario would be for Brown to be removed…either voluntarily or deposed!  Are we seeing the start of our worst nightmare?

Why a nightmare?  Well, any new Labour Leader will enjoy a honeymoon period.  That time when the media will focus on their every move.  They will ‘whore’ media attention.  Enjoy copious media coverage when they can distance themselves from the past and paint a vision of the future.  That time…when they can start to make an inroad into the Conservatives poll leads.  Honeymoon periods are as natural as when night follows day…what is unpredictable is their scale.  Whether Labour’s new leader is Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman, David Miliband or James Purnell, matters not….anybody but Gordon will lead to Labour gains in the polls…for a short time.  Enough for an election win?…unlikely, enough for a Hung Parliament?…maybe….limiting damage & preventing Labour meltdown?…most definitely.  Hence, why Conservatives hope their Nightmare on Downing Street never happens.

If Labour enjoy a honeymoon period when their poll ratings turn, this will put the spotlight firmly on the Tories.  This spotlight will be an intolerable strain and will lead some Tories to crack.  Dissenting voices will be heard.  Cries of…the Tories should have revealed more policies…been more aggressive….been tougher on Europe, Immigration, Law & Order, public spending…will start to be heard.  Labour will exploit these cracks for all they are worth.

Yes, we are in the silly season, when the media print and make up stories.  BUT The Mail on Sunday is running a fascinating story today that states that Alastair Darling is getting mightily pissed off with Gordon Brown’s inability to make ground on the Conservatives over the public spending.  Take a read here.  http://tiny.cc/ZMGp8  Following Brown’s botched attempt to sack Darling in the last reshuffle, it appears that Darling has grown some balls…and not Ed Balls! 

The Mail reports that according to sources present, the Chancellor has stated: ‘I am trying to talk sense into that man. He just doesn’t get it –going on about “Tory cuts” is not going to make an impact on the electorate.  ‘We have to frame the debate in terms of our cuts being better than their cuts. The voters aren’t stupid – they know how bad the economic situation is.’  The scathing comments were made in a private conversation with a veteran Labour MP and critic of Mr Brown just before the Commons rose for the summer recess.

The Mail also states that there were claims that backers of Home Secretary Alan Johnson were secretly canvassing ‘non-aligned’ Labour MPs not closely linked to any potential successor.   Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe, who ran Mr Johnson’s unsuccessful Labour deputy leadership bid in 2007, was accused of quietly taking names.” 

Whether true or part of silly season…matters not.  It is a well known truth that Labour MP’s are again openly discussing whether Gordon should lead the Party.  Labour MP’s look at their Majorities and work out if they are safe.  They are listening to their constituents as they spend time meeting the people over this long recess.  Their chances for turning their Party’s fortunes are slimming.

Let’s add our own analysis to this.  The big question is how can Gordon Brown and the Labour Party turn round the current colossal opinion poll gap?  What can be done?  Well, the war in Afghanistan will continue to see losses of soldiers and will rise in unpopularity as the year moves on.  Unemployment and the economy is not out of the woods by a long way.  While some commentators say we are through the worst of the recession, what is also true is unemployment will continue to rise and the UK has a cancerous, spiralling burden of debt, which will require either huge tax rises on middle England and / or swathing cuts in public spending.  Both tough messages to sell.  Swine flu looks like coming back with a vengeance over the winter period, so any election strategist will tell you that Labour need a miracle to come their way.  So Brown has absolutely NO TRUMP cards to pay….none at all.

Labour’s biggest chance lies without Brown at the helm.

So let’s look at the coming months.  If TBB was Lord Mandolsen…the Kingmaker…, we would not want to leave the election until the last possible moment in June next year.  I would also advise against April & May next year.  In April next year, payslips being opened will see workers getting furious about their lower take home pay due to tax rises.  Hence, not the best time to hold an election campaign.   Let’s look at this year.  Bad news stories will continue to build over the coming months.  The Labour Party Conference will not be a happy affair.  It will be rife with leadership plots and bitterness at the prospect of a hammering at the next election.  After that we have the Pre-Budget Report which will no doubt reduce into stories about the tension between Numbers 10 and 11. 

So from a timetable point of view, the Labour Leadership election will need 2 months to run.  Then the new leader will need 3 months approx to enjoy the Honeymoon period.

So, if I was Peter Mandolsen I would recognise that I would want an election in March next year.  The economy should have more positive news stories in place by then.  (don’t forget we have to avoid April & May, due to the new taxes hitting payslips).  So, I would want a new Leader in place to enjoy January, February and March. 

I would want the Leadership process done by Christmas.  So I could wheel out the new Prime Minister over all the happy Xmas telly.  The new Leader can appear ‘nice and jolly’ on Xmas GMTV, Noel’s Christmas Presents, Christmas Top of the Pops, X Factor final etc.  So if we say the leadership election needs 2 months, it really has to start in October……hence expect the chattering to increase. 

Gordon will know this…..his Party know this……anyone attending this years Labour Conference…you will be witnessing Gordon Brown’s farewell Conference Speech…enjoy it…..but will it be the speech where he announces he is resigning, hence triggering a Leadership race.  If he were loyal to the Labour Party, he would do this…but we all know that Gordon has only 1 loyalty and that is to himself.  Or will he hold on and be advised in October that he has to go?  Let’s watch with interest but hope that Gordon can survive… for the sake of the Conservative Party!

The more we move further into this conflict, the more disgust I feel at Government inactivity and cover-ups.  They are beyond contempt and an embarrassment upon the great reputation of this country abroad.

The Telegraph reports today that the Head of the Army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, has called for more resources in Afghanistan.  This is finally after the Government have admitted key staff shortages are undermining operations to protect troops from roadside deaths.  Whilst Gordon remains on holiday, troops fighting on his direct command, take unnecessary risks and lose their lives.  Never has a leader had so much blood stains on his hands.

As deaths continue to mount up, we all have a duty to pressure this Government.  It is clear, we dont have enough protective equipment in the region, especially against roadside bombs, which have claimed the last 20 deaths.  We don’t have enough helicopters to ensure are troops are transported safely—or have the element of surprise on the enemy, by popping up in different positions.  The more that soldiers take risks because of shortages and the absence of a clear strategy, (as TBB blogged about 2 days back : http://bit.ly/QamCh), the casualty level will rise and success will be even further away.

What does Labour do?  It’s first, natural instinct is to attack and belittle the reputation of Sir Richard Dannatt.  Paul Waugh is reporting on his superb blog that an unnamed Labour Minister is making Freedom of Information requests requests targeting the “entertainment” costs of Gen Dannatt, who is now being seen by Labour as the Govt’s chief critic on poor resourcing of the troops.  The FoIs seek to find out just how much taxpayer cash has been spent wining and dining guests.  Obviously Labour wants to leak an expose on how much public money Sir Richard spent wining and dining guests at his official residence in Kensington Palace.  Take a look at Paul’s overview here.  http://tiny.cc/1kkJB

Thankfully Liam Fox has come to the defence of this dreadful attempt of smear.  Fox, an increasingly impressive front bench spokesperson, has stated: “Labour has now become the government of fear and smear. Whilst suppressing reports of their own incompetence, they attempt to undermine the reputation of one of our most distinguished generals.  At a time when our soldiers are dying in Afghanistan, ministers spend their time in puerile personality politics. General Dannatt is a man of honour and integrity who leads from the front. His Labour detractors are squalid and cowardly, undermining from the shadows.”

So Draper & McBride may have gone, their ethos and natural tendencies to smear and spread lies remains very much at the heart of Labour.  What a disgrace and shamble this Government are in their final dying days.

The ghosts of Christmas Past….their tactics live on at the heart of Labour