Much debate in the media about whether the Conservative campaign is faltering.  Why have opinion poll leads halved over recent weeks newspaper headlines scream, especially given the unpopularity of Brown, (even his own aides can’t stand him) and the disastrous effects of this Government’s policies.  Whilst opinion polls go up and down, and there is no need to panic, there is no harm in some friendly advice on how the campaign can sharpen up.  Interesting that extremely few Conservative bloggers are offering advice, in fear no doubt of being seen as disloyal or rocking the boat.  Loyalty is helping the Party not remaining mute!  We all want Cameron in Number 10 in a matter of weeks!  He has to be for the sake of the British people and the future health of our nation: economically, socially, politically.  Another 5 years of Labour would tear us apart.  The consequences are unimaginable.

What is clear is that a resonating theme is that voters don’t quite understand what Conservatives stand for.  They like ‘that nice man David Cameron’.  They maybe don’t get what we stand for in a succinct and simple way.  And yes, we need to articulate our purpose and message.  Labour have defined their campaign under ‘a future fair for all’.  Conservatives have yet to encapsulate those inspirational catch all messages.  Yes, we are not Labour, but can the electorate understand the key differences about what Conservatives bring to the table?  Of course, much will come out in the wash of an election campaign and no doubt there is an element of holding back and building momentum up to the point of a crescendo but what is clear is that the campaign needs .  The question is, will a campaign based on ‘we are NOT Labour’ enough?  There comes the killer question.  Governments lose elections, not Oppositions win them.  Hence how much does an Opposition have to say……?

Question is……..is the best strategy to play safe, appeal to the centre & centre left or is it worth taking some risks, being bold on policy, ensuring there is clear blue water for Conservatives to be fully understood?  Based on a sample of doorstop canvassing, it is clear that turnout could be incredibly low.  People feel disenfranchised with politics and the expenses scandal has shattered trust in our political system.  Whichever Party can mobilise their support in a low turnout election will win.  Sounds simple, but things go deeper than that.

Much is made of the strategy to portray Cameron as an ‘Heir to Blair’.  In many ways this is the battle to seize the centre ground, where the largest pool of voters allegedly resides.  Or does it?  The theory goes that the ‘Blair voters’ that helped Blair win consecutive elections are alive and well and up for attracting to modern Conservatism.  But in many ways, lets also remember that those electors who helped win Margaret Thatcher her election victories are alive and well and it was many of them that transitioned to helping Blair win his elections as they grew disenfranchised with Major’s Conservatives.

In 2010, what must be recognised the ‘Blair’ brand is damaged goods.  Blair may be a great orator and can still charm with his undeniable charisma but the ‘Blair brand’ is now tarnished goods.  A hollow man than smiles nicely is still a hollow man.

Just as Labour had to redefine itself after crushing Tory victories and gloss its socialism as the super sexy ’New Labour’, the Tories have moved to the Left to seize back the Blair Labour vote.

But is this the right strategy?

What is clear on the doorstep is there are a number of key areas that are causing people concern.  Those of the economy, (obviously), but also issues like immigration, defence, law & order and Europe.  Issues that have always been traditionally strong Conservative issues.  But in seeking to seize the centre ground and to pacify all, have we now diminished the key issues and closed the clear blue water in the eyes of the electorate?

Let’s look at each of these issues.  But let’s deal with them simply, exactly as the person on the street sees them.

Immigration

The person on the street feels that immigration is out of control.  That immigrants are coming from all areas of the world, especially Europe, (eg Poland).  There is a fear that population growth will harm the economy.  Too many people in the population overcrowds the health service, larger class sizes, means more competition for jobs in a recession and hence greater unemployment, more benefits being paid, more crowding on public transport, more building of houses on the green belt, greater pollution etc.  All economic issues, some with social ramifications.  Not racial issues as the BNP would state, but economic issues. 

Other issues amplify immigration worries.  Reports that terrorists from Afghanistan and Pakistan are gaining access to the UK under bogus education visas, only adds to the fear and loathing felt by some of the electorate on this issue.  Hence the BNP play and amplify this issue and wrongly present themselves as the saviour.  Interestingly, it is in the Labour heartlands and some of the poorest constituencies that BNP do best.

Conservatives have traditionally been the Party to take a strong line on immigration.  Little is mentioned today, maybe in fear of alienating voters.  But this policy area is key to the electorate and it’s how it is positioned.  In a tough recession, with people losing jobs, the British people understand if there has to be a tighter immigration policy, a strengthening of points entry.  A tightening of education visas.  Immigration is not an extremist issue, just a logical extension of what the country can afford to sustain and help empower.  Let’s hope that this tougher message is part of Cameron’s election battle strategy. 

Law & Order

The voter on the doorstop is frustrated about the inability of police to stem violence in society.  Not the fault of the police, the fault of the tide of bureaucracy the police are drowning under as they spend more time filing reports and seeking to increase budgets via speeding fines.  People sit scared in their houses as young hoodies roam the streets.  Knife crime escalates.  Judges seem perceptibly weaker in their sentencing and incarceration of violent thugs, that the rule of law starts to mean less to all.  Life sentences no longer meaning life sentences.  Prison life seemingly easy as inmates play on videogames and text their mates on the outside with smuggled in mobiles.  Headlines scream out that those defending their property from a violent intruder, get tougher consequences for standing up to a thug…..than the thug!

These are all things that led people to traditionally trust Conservatives on Law & Order.  Conservatives were traditionally seen as tougher on crime…and to coin a phrase, tougher on the causes of crime.  Do people feel Conservatives own this policy area as  naturally today?  Is law & order high enough on the current political agenda?  Do people instantly recognise Chris Grayling?  Not as much as they should do.  Hence, again, a suggestion to talk tougher on law & order as people resonate with this issue.

Europe

Ah Europe.  The policy area touted as always splitting the Party down the middle  The issue to avoid talking about at all costs.  UKIP has been quietly making inroads into some constituencies exploiting Euro fears.  Traditionally the Conservatives have been seen as a Party that relishes the free trade aspects of Europe but none of the political & monetary Union shenanigans that is on the agenda today.  The voter on the doorstep understands that Europe can bring benefits. Cooperation over foreign & defence policy for example.  Free trade.  But they see more and more the bureaucracy and meaningless interventions in everyday life by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels or a clueless European Parliament made up of zealous federalists, at home feasting on the gravy train. 

There’s the point.  Europe has become associated in the hearts and minds of the British people as a major threat to freedom and enterprise.  Intervening in everyday life which has nothing to do with them.  We can see that the federalist dream of a single currency is killing some nations, eg Greece…. and now, to prevent the single currency crashing, Greece is having to be bailed out…followed by Ireland, followed by….etc.  If this recession has taught us one thing is that had we been in the single currency, many more jobs would have been lost, interest rates would have been higher and the economy now would be even more of a train wreck than it was.  Europe is a mess.  The people see that.  Conservatives need to associate ourselves with that public mood.

So, the people want their say on Europe.  They want to be self governed. A tougher line from Conservatives would actually be beneficial as it opens up clear blue water with Labour and Lib Dems. Let’s be bold not fearful of the big European debate.

The Economy

Pure and simple, people understand that you can’t spend what you don’t have.  Spending cuts have to be deep and swift to stabilise the economy and protect our ‘AAA’ credit rating.  So let’s name cuts.  Those many hundreds of Quangos have to go.  The Public Sector has to be cut.  Yes, cuts in health service BUT people understand cutting managers and not nurses or doctors.  Let’s be bold.  A clear and credible plan to reduce national debt over 5 years.

And yes…..as argued before on this blog, get back to cutting income tax & corporation tax at the next budget.  Revenues do rise when tax is cut.  Empirically proven in the mid 80’s recession in the Government’s own red books.  The incentive and entrepreneurship that we need will start to flourish and trickle down.  Inward investment will be attracted.  Those millionaires hiding in tax havens will start to return.  The UK will be seen as a country to invest in again.

Again, tax cuts benefit all.  Yes of course those on higher incomes benefit most.  But who are the ones that have the money to invest, create new companies, create jobs and hence pump more money into the economy.  In the UK we have become too preoccupied for how we protect the poor and generate benefits and support networks for them, then we have in stimulating enterprise…the very things that benefit more people in society.  A boisterous private sector brings benefits that far outweighs a bloated public sector.  And besides where is the public sector funded from…..private sector cash, including those bankers that we so readily bash, but happily visit hospitals their wealth has paid for. 

And yes, let’s reinforce our privatisation beliefs.  There are still parts of the state that can be best served in the private sector, (and shock horror, this includes parts of the NHS & education).  With the money earned from the sale of state assets, public sector debt can be repaid quickly and of course, cutting tax can go hand in hand.

Yes, this requires a mindset change.  The British public started down that route in the Thatcher years but the journey was curtailed as Labour stole the emperors clothes and socialism, more state control, higher taxes, penalising success, union militancy, all crept back in, helped by European legislation and diktats!

Clear Blue Water

So, that brings us back to Conservatives positioning in the middle ground and utilising ‘Heir to Blair’ metaphors.  Is it enough?  Will people vote with their hearts and minds for Conservatives?  Will they stick with the devil they know in Gordon Brown?

One thing is that values, principles and ideologies help the British people understand where a Party is coming from.  Do people understand what the current Conservatives stand for?  Let’s help steer them more clearly & articulately.

Maybe, just maybe, to strengthen the poll gap, to widen clear blue water, the trump cards should be seen as positives, vote winners and a tougher line on immigration, law & order, Europe and the economy will bring home those Blairite voters, (former Thatcher voters many millions of them).

So back to those core simple understandable issues, what do Conservatives represent…..we are

 -              The Party of Enterprise & tax cuts to stimulate wealth for all

-              Committed to reducing the size of the state and leaving individuals to make their own decisions

-              Passionate believers in Privatisation and transferring more state assets to the private sector

-              The Party that is tough on crime and the causes of crime.  Tough sentences.  Tough prisons.  Making the criminal think twice & fearful at the punish they would incur.

-              The Party that is tough on immigration and tightening border control

-              The Party that is for European free trade & enterprise BUT the Party that believes decisions should be taken by Westminster not Brussels.  Powers to be reclaimed back from Europe.

Sounds like a recipe for electoral success!!!!         

Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

In a recent comment to Scott Newton’s guest blog, “Why Cutting Income Tax, Cutting Red Tape and Deregulating Business is essential for the UK’s Future.” I promised to write more on UK Tax Policy.

I must add that these are my personal observations and are not intended to upset anyone…

…Including Scott who’s piece is right on the mark. (Well done Scott!)

For the past 4 years my company (www.ditg.org.uk) has been funded by the worlds largest ICT brands to establish a replacement for the Government’s Home Computing Initiative (HCI).

HCI was budget measure implemented by Gordon Brown as a Tax Incentive for employees. Under Section 320 of the Finance Act, employees could acquire up to £2500 worth computer equipment from their employer Income Tax exempt. In turn, employers enjoyed an exemption on Class 1A National Insurance on the amounts salary sacrificed by the employee.

This created an industry worth £450 Million to the UK and about 2500 related employment opportunities.

Unfortunately, the exemption was removed in Budget 2006. (It was proving too successful?)

This resulted in one of the longest cross-examinations during the reading for a finance bill in recent times. (Well worth a read on Hanson – see the below link).

The Government cited “abuse” as the reason for removing the benefit and pledged to “refocus efforts on those most in need”. Check out the written evidence taken at the time:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we14.htm

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we08.htm

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we06.htm

YOU MUST READ THIS NEXT ONE, IT IS NOT SPECIFICALLY HCI, BUT IS A GREAT READ.

IT ALSO SHOW THAT INSPITE OF WHAT YOU MAY THINK, WE DO RETAIN A AN OPEN AN UNBVIASED RECORD OF PUBLIC COMMENT AS PART OF UK POLITICS.

IT IS ALSO HILARIOUS:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we07.htm

Just in case you don’t want to click off the blog – here is a taster:

“The rhetoric of “transformation”, “reform”, “investment”, “transparency”, “devolution”, “prudent”, “cautious”, “audited” and “world class” is so indulgent and self-congratulatory that one wonders if some drafters inside the Treasury are parodying ministers.”

Professor David Heald, Comments on Budget 2006

Ouch!

At the time the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats both lobbied against the decision and the recorded debate on Hansard is a fantastic read. It is also a good introduction to political punditry and how Politician’s really debate:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmhansrd/vo060502/debtext/60502-22.htm

(The unanswered question for me was always how you can abuse a taxation system that assesses individual taxation in arrears…but then I am bias and this blog isn’t about HCI!)

So with this background you would think that it would be easy to gain Parliamentary support for a refocused replacement scheme developed over 4 years at a cost to the IT Industry (not the tax payer!) of over £2.6 Million.

Not so…

In practice the differentiation between the Parties on the issue of supporting a tax incentives is in practice not all that large. (Sorry Scott)

ALL Ministers (despite what the expenses scandal suggests) are concerned as to how to pay for any incentive, will it fit with policy…

So why post this blog at all?

Well my personal concern is not about the detail of Tax Policies, nor believe it or not HCI.

My concern is the Conservative approach. Will it win us the election?

Have a look at the following comparison of Labor and Tax summary statements.

John questions whether there is enough clear blue water between Labour & Conservatives on Tax policy……you decide!

Treat yourself and see if you can spot the difference!

Conservatives:

“We will freeze council tax for two years by reducing wasteful spending on advertising and consultancy in central government.”

Labour:

“We are reducing the amount of central prescription so that local authorities and their partners are better able to respond to local needs and demands.”

Conservatives:

“We will introduce a £50bn National Loan Guarantee Scheme to underwrite
bank lending to businesses and get credit flowing again.”

Labour (DirectGov):

“The government is announcing that it will offer capital and asset protection on those assets most affected by the current economic conditions. This will reduce banks’ uncertainty about the value of past investments, so providing them with greater confidence to lend in the future to creditworthy businesses, homeowners and consumers.”

Labour (Policy):

“Working with banks, Labour is providing loan guarantees to businesses to help them get the credit they need.”

Conservatives:

“We will provide tax cuts for new jobs with a £2.6bn package of tax breaks to get people into work, funded by money that would otherwise go on unemployment benefit.”

Labour:

“Extra cash to encourage employers to recruit people without jobs.”

“Stepping up the training and support people need to get back to work.”

Conservatives:

“We will cut the main rate of corporation tax to 25p and the small companies’ rate to 20p, paid for by scrapping complex reliefs and allowances”

Labour:

“Allowing businesses facing difficulties to spread their tax payments on a timetable they can afford.”

Conservatives:

“We will give small and medium-sized businesses a six-month VAT holiday, funded by a 7.5% interest rate on delayed payments.”

Labour:

“We have reduce VAT to 15%”

Conservatives:

“We will cut National Insurance by 1% for six months for firms with fewer than five employees, paid for from the above changes to the company tax regime.”  

Labour:

“When it is affordable, we will re-link the basic state pension to earnings.  We aim to do this by 2012 or by the end of the next parliament at the latest.”

Conservatives:

“We will abolish Stamp Duty for nine out of ten first-time buyers and raise the Inheritance Tax threshold to £1 million. Both of these changes will be funded by a flat-rate charge on non-domiciles.”

Labour:

“Extending the Stamp Duty holiday for properties under £175,000”

“Extra mortgage protection to help families stay in their homes”

“Helping savers by increasing the threshold of Individual Savings Accounts to over £10,000”

Now hopefully some clever contributors will now explain to me the differences in the comments…WAIT, some I can see! (And before you comment, I know that the Conservatives have shown how they will pay for it !!)

But you know it all does kind of sound the same to me…and taxation detail is part of my day job…

…So what hope does the deciding electorate have?

I do sincerely hope the Tory manifesto has some really clear taxation differentiators in it.

Otherwise I might get confused and vote for the wrong Party.

Here is a thought…committing to bring back s320 income tax benefits for computers would be a start.

Hey look, it is my daily bread…      

John Laity…..

As we learn ‘The Sun’ and its 10 million readers come home to the Conservatives, John Laity continues his look at the Labour Party Conference and Gordon Brown’s ’speech of his life’…or was it?

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“Never stop believing in the good sense of the British people.” by John Laity

Wow what a bashing! Gordo you punchy PM you:

“Only one party with pretensions to government made the wrong choice; the Conservative Party of Britain.
They made the wrong choice on Northern Rock.
The wrong choice on jobs and spending.
The wrong choice on mortgage support.
The wrong choice on working with Europe.
The only thing about their policy that is consistent is that they are consistently wrong.”

Gordo was on form and although you wouldn’t have got even odds at the bookies on what his speech would contain, I was surprised that he was so direct. Here was a Gordo that didn’t pull his punches.

Good show Gordo, I never like to see a one sided beating!

I did have some real puke moments though.

Thanking John Smith, Neil Kinnock and John Smith for the way forward…Very twee, but a good PR ploy…”Gordo the left the middle and the right of the Labour Party!”

And then there was my Little-Britain-convulsive-hose-pipe-puke-but-no-joke-making moment:

“The first is the one I spoke about in detail on Sunday when I talked about the mission of our brave men and women in Afghanistan.
The heroism of our fighting men and women is unsurpassed and we owe them a debt we can never fully repay. And let us on behalf of the British people pay tribute to them and their courage today.
The British armed forces truly are the finest in the world. And let us say to them – all British forces will always have all the equipment they need and the best support we can give.
And conference let me say, Britain will work with President Obama and 40 other countries for peace and stability for the people of Afghanistan, and to make sure that terrorism doesn’t come to the streets of Britain.”

If that is what you truly believe Gordo, then pay the USA for the computer software upgrades keeping apache helicopters on the ground…Let LDV staff build you some bomb proof vehicles…Oh, lets face it, it is hardly worth the comment!

BUT !!!  Gordo did actually nail something for me!

“Never stop believing in the good sense of the British people.”

You see I have stopped believing…

I believe the UK People are apathetic and turned off by politics.
I believe that the Voter doesn’t know who to vote for or why to bother…After all, all Ministers pretty much ignored expenses abuse…Except maybe Vince Cable.
I also believe that the Voter is tired and feels that they can’t do anything.

And THIS last belief is what really bothers me…

We the Voters are the problem for the state of the UK…Not Brown, not Clegg, not expenses and not even the banks.

Election on election we fail to cast our vote. So we also fail to hold anyone to account.

Here are some of the examples of failure that I will take on myself…and you should too, as you live in the same society as me.

1. Fiona Pilkington, killed herself and her 18-year-old disabled daughter Francecca after being hounded by local youths. This was not a failure of the Police, nor the failure of the Local Authority, nor was it Gordo’s fault. Yes we could point the finger at any or all of them, but this was OUR failure. When questioned the neighbors of Fiona admitted this, “I should have spoken out, but feared I would be pulled into the problem.” – An honest answer and one that shows how WE are failing our communities.

Another example of our complacency:

2. Wootton Basset, close to my heart as it is my local town. But here is a thing…I DON’T want Royal Ascent for Bassett! What I really want for Wootton Bassett is for it to revert back to its unknown status. Just another small town in Wiltshire…What I want is that we don’t see any more young men or women shipped through the High street in a coffin…NO MORE PLEASE

So, in June next year VOTE !

Not for Gordo, not for Clegg, not even for the Conservatives nor any other individual party…

Vote to take on the responsibility for those things that are wrong.
Vote to start to hold to account those in power for the lack of support they show for our armed forces.
Vote for better health care, for sensible economics, for jobs, for work, for help for your neighbours.

But it is not just a vote, you should also commit to taking a stand. Stand against terrorism and not just terrorism abroad, but also where I see it in your local community. Stand up and speak out with hope, even if it puts you at risk…In doing so you might just change the opinions of those in the wrong, for the better of everyone.

Lastly, and most importantly, take a stand for fairness and honesty from our leaders and from our policy makers.

In June 2010 YOU can make a small individual statement and pick the party and leadership that will best reflect what YOU think our country needs.

And remember, June is a really good time to take a stand on your own!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-nXT8lSnPQ

So Thank you James Gordon Brown !

We will vote and we will:

“Never stop believing in the good sense of the British people.
Never stop believing we can move forward to a fairer, more responsible, more prosperous Britain.
Never stop believing we can make a Britain equal to its best ideals.
Never, never stop believing. And because the task is difficult the triumph will be even greater.”

You are right, now is not the time to give in but to reach inside ourselves for the strength of our convictions…Change, Hope and David Cameron.

Now that is beyond conference spin!

~;v Gimme some hungry chicken ~;v

Another guest blog from John Laity.  Keep em coming John….

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So following a “packed” pre-launch speech yesterday, we get some interesting openers.

“The pull of coming back to serve this Prime Minister, our leader, Gordon Brown – who was gripping this financial crisis, leading the fightback against it when so many others seemed caught in the headlights.”

He’s back !!!  Mandy’s Here !!!

Yes, Peter brings some enthusiasm to a lack luster and tired looking conference so far. A welcome and entertaining relief from those sentenced to a week in Brighton.

Amongst some classic Mandelson Vandalism’s were the following gems:

“I did not choose this party.  I was born into it. It is in my blood and in my bones.”

And like Jesus the party faithful ate his body and drank his blood…but then came my predictions from yesterday:

“A Labour Government has never been more needed.
- Needed to fight back against the recession.
- Needed to build and secure our future economic strength.
- And needed to ensure we pay down debt in a way that is fair and protects jobs, homes and our frontline public services.
And yet, we must face facts. Electorally, we are in the fight of our lives. And, yes, we start that fight as underdogs.”

Now this is worrying, the spin master has laid down the rules. We will now face an unrelenting unmoving non-wavering line upon these issues. Labour are fighting back you know!

But there is hope…In some gutter slinging we now have “Boy George” and “Shallow David Cameron”…Good news, as such slinging is bad news for Votes…

But note that it will come from Lord Mandelson, not from Gordo…No the spin machine is too good for that.

But what of the other speakers?

Hilary Ben, a past Labour big hitter stepped up, quoting Roosevelt and the great Depression and then drawing down from Obama: “It is with hope that we can – and we will – change the world for the better.”
Eddy Miliband, a past contender to the crown, “David Cameron is good at green stunts. The huskies. The bike – with the car and driver following behind. The wind turbine on the roof.”
Lord Adonis, “Join Labour on this great journey. Let’s not go down the Tory dead-end street. do so.”

My interest was most peaked by Tessa Jowell, who quoted Obama and then compared the general public (that she meets traveling around the country) to Olympians, “They may not mount the podium to receive a medal, the adulation of a nation ring in their ears.”…Bronze medals for everyone then!

But certainly we started to get a feel for what the big hope really was for Labour…Don’t let the Conservative wield Obama style “Change”!

Lord Mandelson laid some traps:

“Well, the Tories may have skimmed the headline summary of the New Labour manual.  But they never bothered to read the book. If they had they would know what real change involves.  They would know what a painful process it is. We in this hall know what it took to make the change. Show me what has really changed in the Conservative Party.”

But the real speech today to listen to was from Gordo’s Number 2. The reluctant resident from number 11 gave a good account of what Labour have done to stem the global thermonuclear meltdown of the world finance system. He told us how Gordo had single handedly stopped us from dying in the nuclear winter caused by the collapse of (Northern Rock?) our entire monetary system…Impressive stuff…

But in the impressive list of godly monies spent to help us recover were some interesting omissions:

No monetary account of the billions handed out to the banks…as to do so would have eclipsed the monies quoted as being spent on Jobs and Industry

No mention of what was being spent to win the war in Afghanistan…to bring home troops safely. I suspect we will get that from Gordo tomorrow.

So all eyes will now turn to Gordo, who now not only wants a televised debate now (apparently)…he wants a whole load of them…See he was never scared of Cameron, he just didn’t want Nick Clegg involved.

Prime Minister cutting Trident budget.  Prime Minister cutting £2bn off education spending.  More cuts yet to be announced as Whitehall Mandarins currently do the maths.  Where does this leave the Tories?  Is the Emperor trying to steal our clothes?

One of the key differentiators over the summer, ‘clear blue water’, between Labour and Tories has been the early identification by the Conservatives that there needed to be spending cuts to reduce the spiralling deficit.  Pre the recess Gordon Brown was scornful of Cameron’s policies.  At times deeply patronising.  For Brown the choice was between ‘Tory cuts, Labour Investment’.  Cameron was Mr 10%.  The man would axe teachers, health workers, public sector jobs etc.  Oh how times have changed over the Summer.  Brown has been dragged kicking and screaming down the road to Damascus.

Labour have now u-turned.  They have done a complete 180 degree turn and now are prioritising expenditure reviews….only because necessity dictates.  Brown wants to avoid that visit to the IMF, cap in hand, for a bailout of bankrupt Britain….pre the election at least.  So how has this situation developed over the past 2 weeks?  First up, leaked Treasury documents showed that Labour have been in the planning stages of 10% cuts over this summer, (making the abuse that Brown gave Cameron as Mr 10% farcical and deeply offensive).  Ed Balls comes out at the weekend to announce £2bn cuts in education spending.  Yes, this involves axing teaching staff, (something Cameron had been accused of).  Now today, Brown announces he is planning to cut circa 1/4 off Trident spending.  More spending cuts will be announced over the coming weeks.

Trident is an easy card for Brown to play.  He needs his friends on the Left of the Party.  The card carrying dregs left of CND will rejoice that this decision is a move in their direction, albeit only 1 submarine!   It will be interesting to see how Cameron plays the Trident decision.  The Conservatives have always been the Party of Defence.  Known for strong investment into the defence of the realm.  Does he play this card?  Does Cameron say that Labour is leaving the country weaker, as evidenced by the Afghanistan war with soldiers left with insufficient manpower, equipment, armoury, transportation and air power, backing this up with cuts in Trident? 

Or does Cameron focus on economic reality.  He needs to make big cuts.  Not every area can be ring fenced.  The health service is sacrosanct. But cuts need to be made, is Trident one area?  Tough decisions, which will be political by nature.  Cameron also has to be aware of the prevailing times.  Obama’s New World Order, reduce nuclear proliferation.  But times that also pose new dangers.  Unpredictable rogue states like Iran, North Korea, an unstable Pakistan and a real threat of a non conclusion to the Afghanistan War, hence leaving the Taliban regaining control.  Real danger exists and must never be discounted.

The public spending debate is starting to change.  It is no longer a choice of cuts vs. investment.  It is a choice of what gets cut and how much?  As we move forward, ardent critics of the Government’s policy in the past who urged drastic cuts in spending like World Bank, IMF, IOD, CBI, will neutralize their stance / start to make positive noises towards Labour, as they at last announce cuts.  The public sometimes have short memories and hence while the Tories led the way on proposing cuts, the Government will demonstrate they have been cutting, hence moving some way to shortening / blurring the clear blue water we built on this issue.

Now what is the best policy for the Conservatives moving forward?  We could be out manoeuvred by Labour!  This is a key strategic decision by Cameron & team.

Option 1 is silence.  Do the Conservatives need to detail all the policy areas they would cut?  This in effect is the age old argument over whether an Opposition should reveal a shadow budget.  Given spending decisions are being made, unpopularity will follow for this Government.  Already in education, teaching unions are discussing the need for strike action.  Do the Conservatives need to enter into a spending squabble between the Government and Teaching Unions, when we can leave them to it and grab the pop corn and enjoy the fireworks and watch our poll ratings rise.   As other cuts are announced.  More attacks will be made on the Government by those affected.  Strikes will follow.  Public protests.  Marches.  Demonstrations.  All from which we could sit back and watch poll support, in theory rise!

Danger of this strategy is Labour’s response and whether it would resonate with the public.  It is clear that Mandolsen’s strategy in the next election will be, there will be gentle cuts under Labour, precision cuts by a skilled surgeon, and the slogan will be life would be worse under the Tories.  They will state that Tories would propose ‘savage’ cuts.  They will try to paint us as ideologically committed and turned on by spending cuts.  They will paint us as the Party of Unemployment.  This will be the line that every Cabinet Minister will subconsciously try to drum into the electorate’s head.  But will the electorate believe that?  Will they trust a proven lying Government?  That’s the gamble.

Option 2.  That is for the Conservatives to take charge of the spending question.  George Osborne could call a press conference this week and show economic leadership by providing more detail in what Conservatives propose to cut.  We know that Whitehall is preparing the figures and Ministers chewing over what has to be cut.  Before they announce their results, Osborne could have trumped them and then accused Labour of copying Conservative proposals.  We know that Labour are happy to steal our clothing.  Look at Tony Blair.  New Labour was socialism in a pink dress and nice stiletto’s, hiding the evils which lay beneath. 

These are interesting strategic times.  Critical as we approach the next election.  As Conservatives move further towards the Left to attract Liberal Democrat voters, we have to ensure that a clear choice still remains for the electorate.  Choosing between different shades of the same colour can make it easier for bigger poll swings, one way or another.  Electoral volatility is well known in our electoral history.  1992 is a great example, with Major beating the odds, despite poll ratings being wildly wrong.

Of course, Labour are mightily unpopular today.  But what if Brown does decide to retire early because of failing health.  What if the Labour Conference next week is so rebellious, that more follow Charles Clarke and openly criticise Brown, that Brown either quits for the Party of the men in grey coats knock at the doors of Number 10.  The smiling Alan Johnson, the most likely benefactor of Brown going, would enjoy a media bounce and chance to change the Party’s policies, say he is listening to the Public, then the subsequent 3 month honeymoon period, could make it tougher for the Conservatives to achieve the thumping majority we all crave for, (if a snap election had been called to correspond with the honeymoon period).

So what is the clear blue water?  What differentiates us from the other parties?  Well several cards are ours to play.  Core issues like Europe, immigration and taxation are natural Conservative areas.  These are currently on the back burner.  Unplayed winning hands.  Why are they not being played some will ask?

The answer is that polls show that the biggest pool of undecided voters lay in the centre ground.  Lib Dem supporters are volatile.  They are feeling ‘warm and fuzzy’ towards Conservatives.  Given our core supporters want / demand change away from this dreadful Socialist Government, we can bank on their support.  Their votes are in the bank, (however much they want a real swing to the right).  So naturally, as we saw Eric Pickles do last week, the Party seeks to attract Lib Dem voters by playing smooth, sensual, alluring tunes to their supporters to dance to.  Pickles won’t play the Europe card now, as Clegg himself identifies, Lib Dems and Conservatives have different visions of Europe.  Lib Dems love the European Superstate.  Hence, keep Europe off the table.  Discussing Europe will make us less appealing to Lib Dem floaters.  Whilst the Party can, it advisably follows the strategy of winning and building upon core support and keeping away from controversial issues that could be divisive.  No need to rock the boat in the delicate run up to the election.

But….here comes the but….if this Government start to reduce the clear blue water, starts rising in the polls, voters getting more confused at who offers what…..no doubt the European question, Immigration and Tax will raise their head again.  But only if and when the Party need to differentiate itself.  Until that point, the controversial issues will lie sleeping…….

Remember this classic election poster?  Labour’s tax bombshell.  The Sunday Telegraph reveals that according to Treasury Documents Labour, if they win the next election, are planning to increase income tax by 3p in the pound. The natural inclination of the Socialists returns.  Raising taxes on hard working families.  The truth is out.  Labour return to type!

The Treasury documents show a  big rise in projected income tax receipts between now and 2011-12, as well as in following years.  This points to Labour raising taxes immediately if they won the next election!  What a scary, nightmare scenario!

The Sunday Telegraph states that: “….Treasury tables showing the anticipated income tax receipts in the years up to 2013-14. The total falls to £140.5 billion this year, which most experts expect will include the worst of the recession, before rising slightly to £144.7 billion in 2010-11, which covers the period when the next election is expected to be held. In 2011-12, however, the projected income tax “take” leaps to £161.6 billion. The Tories said that rise could not be accounted for by the planned 50p tax rate for those on incomes of more than £150,000, which would raise just under £2 billion in 2011-12, or by people returning to work as the economy started to recover. They said the £14.8 billion “unexplained” increase in receipts would be the equivalent of putting 3p on the standard rate of income tax. The tables showed that receipts would rise still further in subsequent years, ending up at £191.8 billion in 2013-14 — a rise of 32.55 per cent from 2010-11. Further rises could lead to the amount taken through the tax increasing by almost a third by 2013-14, the Tories said. They claimed the rise in receipts could not be accounted for by people returning to work and the introduction of the new 50p top-rate tax on earnings of more than £150,000 a year”.

This boils down to the crux of the debate at the next election.  Labour will raise taxes.  Conservatives will cut spending, where prudent to do so.

The more we learn of Labour’s economic strategy, the better educated the electorate will become.  This election manifesto may well become the ‘longest suicide note in history’ for Labour. 

The more that is revealed the more interesting Labour’s Conference will be.  If poll ratings continue to decline, Gordon Brown may not survive his own Conference.  That’s unless he is, as rumours persist, is planning to announce that he is standing down as Prime Minister in his Conference speech…..?

John Prescott has just posted this image for his Facebook fans.  It is a response to Eric Pickles Tory T-Shirt Competition.    As you can see it features Iain Dale, (looking trim and tanned there Iain!), with the t-shirt slogan, ‘I’m with Stupid’, with a road sign arrow pointing up at Iain’s face.

This really demonstrates to me that we are in for one hell of a negative campaign from Labour.  This is a former Deputy Prime Minister delving into the gutter to gain cheap laughs by rude,  juventile attacks on a much loved blogger.  This was a personal attack and offensive to modern politics. 

Prescott should be shamed at such smear tactics.

Even one of his supporters, wrote on Prescott’s Facebook page:  James Delargy:  ‘JP – it’s funny – but childish and negative! Go forth should be a positive debate … look up my surname you’ll see my family of MPs and councillors are as red as red can be! Mud slinging isn’t the answer to getting votes, mate! Remember the Tory’s devil eyes campaign? That disgusted me beyond words – please stick to what you’re going to do and leave the infantile stuff to the others’!

Iain, if you are reading this, at least that Prescott sees you as a threat.

McBride and Draper may be gone but the principles of smear and gutter politics remain in the veins of the Labour Leadership and grandees.  Disgusting!

Is Gordon Brown ill?  Reports are flying round the blogs and much chattering is taking place amongst MP’s / Westminster village that he is suffering from depression and is taking powerful anti depressants.

Brown certainly has a low profile at the moment but it could explain why he took a month off work and Mandelson is fronting the majority of tv interviews for the Government.  However, this story may be all rubbish and Brown is keeping a low profile because he is deeply unpopular?  The truth will out.

Iain Dale is carrying a well crafted piece today in which he raises this question and states that if Brown is suffering some form of illness he deserves our compassion, not our insults.  Really suggest that you read Iain’s pece as he deals with this issue compassionately and thoughtfully. 

This story all surfaced last week on John Ward’s blog.  Iain Dale details how the story is escalating:  ‘Matthew Norman wrote about it in yesterday’s Independent and Guido Fawkes has given the full details on his blog. Even lefty John Harrisis speculating about the Prime Minister’s state of mind on Comment is Free. And he’s not the first. Behind the scenes in Westminster it is a regular topic of conversation. Labour MPs discuss it, along with the rest of us’.

Guido breaks into more detail: ‘In the broadsheets Simon Heffer, Matthew Parris have touched on the issue and this morning Matthew Norman in the Independent has explicitly referred to the allegation that Gordon Brown is taking “heavy duty antidepressants known as MAOIs (Monoamine Oxidase Inhibitors)”. The evidence is first and foremost his behaviour – what some have previously put down to a lack of EQ or emotional intelligence, is now being attributed to drugs to control his dark depressions.  We all know the stories of rages, flying Nokias, smashed laser printers, tables kicked over and crying Downing Street secretaries subjected to foul-mouthed tirades.  We have seen the deranged YouTube performances, the bizarre facial contortions, the incongruent emotional responses – smiling when offering condolences, frowning when giving best wishes’.

Depression is nothing new in politics.  In faction it is very common.  Winston Churchill, the greatest war time Prime Minister, sufferered from serious mental health problems.  Churchill, at times, suffered crippling depression.  He called this ‘black dog’.  His medecine was…..alcohol.

What is depression?   It is very common in the UK.  Especially in times like these with a recession.

The signs

People with depression can feel hopelessly sad. Sometimes it is even possible to be depressed without having the usual ‘miserable’ feelings. There are lots of different signs which may point to depressive illness – the main ones are listed below. Keep in mind that most depressed people only suffer from a few of these feelings.

Changed feelings

You may have noticed  a change in the way you are responding or feeling about things. The following points can be indications that it could be depression:

• Persistent sadness, lasting two weeks or more;
• Loss of interest in your favourite things;
• Finding no fun or enjoyment in life;
• Loss of self-confidence;
• Feeling guilty, bad, unlikeable, or not good enough;
• Feeling empty inside;
• Feeling useless or unable to cope with life;
• Feeling bored all the time;
• Increased feelings of anxiety;
• Can’t see a future for yourself;
• Thinking everything is pointless;
• Thinking life is not worth living;
• Thoughts of death or suicide;
• Wanting to go to sleep and never wake up again;
• Especially low mood in the mornings;
• Feeling more irritable, frustrated, or aggressive than usual;
• Trouble concentrating on things, poor memory.

Given the HUGE pressure that Gordon is under, it would not be surprising if this had taken its toll.  Devastating local and European elections, a fleet of ministerial resignations, JUST holding onto his job, a collapsing economy, a faltering war in Afghanistan with soldiers returning ever more frequently in body bags…this would test the best of us.

Now any one suffering from depression/any form of illness deserves compassion.  But we also have to consider the Office of State he presides over, (if this story is true).  This is the Head of the Armed Forces, finger on the Nuclear button.  This is the man who has to lead this country out of recession and take delicately based economic decisions.  Whilst someone suffering from depression can do the job, (as Churchill did), today is a different scenario with 24/7 media coverage, global challenges being thrown by the hour, an economy trying to climb the cliff back to growth, unemployment still growing, a war that sees no ends.  This requires a leader at the top of their game.

Interestingly, I was re-reading previous blogs I have posted:  This was posted on 20th May

‘Hence, this is what TBB forecasts will happen.   Brown, because of all the above, will announce that he is to step down as Leader.  He will say his job is done.  He has worked day and night to turn the economy round, brought together G20 and everything is now in place for a recovery.  Due to the tolling hours on his health and family life he will say that it is time for a new Leader to take the Party forward in more positive times.  He will admit that he will be tainted with the recession and he would not like to go into an election with this stigma for the Party.  He will play the card that it is now time for him to spend more time with his family.   This is the only chance that Labour have left.  No policy initiative or ‘weapon’ at their disposal can turn around this poll in time for a May 2010 election.  Hence the goal will be a new leader, hence a honeymoon period for that leader in the polls and bang….an election.  This new leader will then say, because of all the sleaze in parliament and events of the past few months, we need a new election, fresh faces, fresh ideas…..and call one.  Labour hope this will minimise losses and perhaps the British people will be gullible and scrape them in’.

As a private individual we should feel compassion for anyone suffering depression, if Brown is.  I am sure many in the nation will feel real sympathy for Brown.  But we also deserve the truth.  Which lobby journalist will ask this question and we have a right to know the state of health of our Prime Minister….?

Is Gordon Brown running scared?  Is he frit?  What’s he got to lose by agreeing in principle to Sky News Leaders Election Debate?  Clearly he is troubled by facing the nation and the cameras against Cameron.

His only reply to Sky is that he will consider it when we head into the election campaign.  News to you Gordon….the campaign has started.  The election gun has been fired.  These Party Conferences signal the last chance to rally the troops before the fight starts in earnest.

Gordon’s lack of ability to state his mind is very concerning.  First up did he support Megrahi’s release?  Answer:  He found the scenes of the Libyans celebrating his release disturbing.  No comment on the release.  Next up the Sky Leaders debate.  No answer…yes/no!  What is the point of having a Leader of the Country if he sits on the fence and will not commit an opinion or view?  That’s the definition of a lack of leadership.

Credit to David Cameron for accepting, (indeed championing this cause).  He has the most to lose from such a debate.  Gordon has the most to gain as he is so far behind in the polls, with a demoralised Party, this could be his best option.  But he knows that his drab, monotone dulcet tones will not come across well against a slick, exciting, passionate, inspiring David Cameron.  I bet Mandolsen would relish the chance!

Credit as well to Nick Clegg for accepting…..that just leaves one empty seat.

Just as Have I Got News For You, empty chaired Neil Hattersley and placed a tub of lard in his place, Sky News can empthy chair Brown and replace with a plate of yellow jelly…..probably made of tougher stuff than Gordon!

Great work by Sky.  They trumped the BBC and started this initiative.  I hope it comes off for them.

If you have not done so yet, click on the link below and sign up to Sky’s Online Petition to stage a televised Leaders Election Debate/s.

It seems increasingly likely that Gordon Brown will have to be deposed by Labour in the coming weeks/months, to have any chance in the next election.  David Miliband, Harriet Harman, James Purnell and Alan Johnson are the names floating round as the most obvious successors.  But who would Conservatives most fear?  And why should we target that potential leader to dim their brand.

Let’s look at each potential leader.  First to be discounted is Harriet Harman.  Labour, in even their wildest moments would not elect such an erratic performer as Harriet.  Becoming increasingly derided over her poor performance and her bizarre interpretations of equality, Harman is more akin to a national laughing stock and would be made mincemeat at the hustings.  Even in recent stories where she promotes equality and female shortlists, then is seeking to prioritise her husband Jack as a candidate, just show her hypocritical nature.  Hence, even if Labour made her Leader, we have nothing to fear from Harman. 

David Miliband, once with his own powerbase, now is seen as a politician who lacked that final killer instinct to be a leader.  Well known in the press for organising a leadership challenge to Brown last year, Miliband has sniped behind the scenes but never had the courage to show his true courage.  Even when his best friend James Purnell had the courage to resign, when Miliband had his best chance, he bottled it, and this is not forgotten amongst labour supporters.  His time came and past.  He is no political heavyweight and even holding a major Office of State, has made little impact.  Where is he on the news discussing Afghanistan?  Brown would even prefer the hapless Bob Ainsworth represent the Government…that says a lot for Miliband’s position.  It is also well known that Hilary Clinton thinks he is a little boy in a man’s job.

For James Purnell, a formidable potential leader, it is too early for him to strike.  He needs to build credibility and at the moment, amongst Labour supporters there is a whiff of traitor about him.  This whiff will go, after a Labour election defeat and he can then play the ‘I told you card’ and again build his brand.  He is the best Labour leader by a mile…but it is too early for him now.  Hence must be discounted as a threat pre the election.

So opinion polls show it.  Labour Unions Confirm it.  Private Conservative Opinion polls detail it.  Alan Johnson is the most likely next Leader, if Gordon goes pre the election.  Alan comes across superbly well in the media.  ‘That nice bloke next door’, ‘Mr trustworthy’, that ‘happy chappie’, Alan has a lot going for him.  His smile and natural demeanour would go a long way for Labour….and hence is a genuine opponent to be feared. 

Hence this begs a question.  Why have Conservatives not sought to give Alan Johnson special attention now?  Diminish his brand.  Dent his nice guy image.  The more groundwork we do on Johnson now, the better when it comes to any leadership battle.  If we leave it too late to highlight Johnson’s weaknesses and show him for what he is worth, we Conservatives will be seen as the ‘nasty party’ attacking him only when he stands for Leadership.  ‘Oh that poor Mr Johnson being attacked by the Tories…poor Alan’!!!!  Johnson is a potential sharp thorn in our electoral hopes, should Brown go.  Why not blunt his effect in advance?  We don’t need to do that for any other leader.  Johnson….yes….he is the most popular Labour figure.

What frustrates is that Johnson is a ‘Teflon’ Politician.  Very few things stick to him.  But there is much in his past we can target and stick to him.  He has held the following Offices of State for Labour….Secretary of State for Work & Pensions, Secretary of State for Trade & Industry, Secretary of State for Education & Skills, Secretary of State for Health, right up to today as Home Secretary.  We have plenty of ammunition to stick at him.

So Chris Grayling, you have a vital job to perform as shadow to the Home Secretary…..To put the pressure on Johnson.  Help lose his ‘teflon’ image.  Make him seem completely incompetent in his role as Home Secretary.  The Home Office is the political graveyard of many careers.  There are many issues to get Johnson hooked up into.  Knife crime, rising violent crime figures, overcrowding in prisons, rising immigration figures, ID Card Scheme, terrorists getting access to the UK via Student Visas, the intrusion of the Government into our everyday lives & the ‘Big Brother’ state.  Let’s keep him on the back foot put him under the spotlight.  His opinion poll rating will soon decline.

Over to you Chris….help the Party and diminish the potential effect of a Johnson on our electoral hopes.  With Johnson damaged, the more likely Labour will stick with Brown…and that would be a dream scenario for us……

It is no secret that every Conservative loves Gordon Brown.  We all want him to lead the Labour Party into the next election.  He is the Conservatives biggest electoral asset.   Hence, our nightmare scenario would be for Brown to be removed…either voluntarily or deposed!  Are we seeing the start of our worst nightmare?

Why a nightmare?  Well, any new Labour Leader will enjoy a honeymoon period.  That time when the media will focus on their every move.  They will ‘whore’ media attention.  Enjoy copious media coverage when they can distance themselves from the past and paint a vision of the future.  That time…when they can start to make an inroad into the Conservatives poll leads.  Honeymoon periods are as natural as when night follows day…what is unpredictable is their scale.  Whether Labour’s new leader is Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman, David Miliband or James Purnell, matters not….anybody but Gordon will lead to Labour gains in the polls…for a short time.  Enough for an election win?…unlikely, enough for a Hung Parliament?…maybe….limiting damage & preventing Labour meltdown?…most definitely.  Hence, why Conservatives hope their Nightmare on Downing Street never happens.

If Labour enjoy a honeymoon period when their poll ratings turn, this will put the spotlight firmly on the Tories.  This spotlight will be an intolerable strain and will lead some Tories to crack.  Dissenting voices will be heard.  Cries of…the Tories should have revealed more policies…been more aggressive….been tougher on Europe, Immigration, Law & Order, public spending…will start to be heard.  Labour will exploit these cracks for all they are worth.

Yes, we are in the silly season, when the media print and make up stories.  BUT The Mail on Sunday is running a fascinating story today that states that Alastair Darling is getting mightily pissed off with Gordon Brown’s inability to make ground on the Conservatives over the public spending.  Take a read here.  http://tiny.cc/ZMGp8  Following Brown’s botched attempt to sack Darling in the last reshuffle, it appears that Darling has grown some balls…and not Ed Balls! 

The Mail reports that according to sources present, the Chancellor has stated: ‘I am trying to talk sense into that man. He just doesn’t get it –going on about “Tory cuts” is not going to make an impact on the electorate.  ‘We have to frame the debate in terms of our cuts being better than their cuts. The voters aren’t stupid – they know how bad the economic situation is.’  The scathing comments were made in a private conversation with a veteran Labour MP and critic of Mr Brown just before the Commons rose for the summer recess.

The Mail also states that there were claims that backers of Home Secretary Alan Johnson were secretly canvassing ‘non-aligned’ Labour MPs not closely linked to any potential successor.   Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe, who ran Mr Johnson’s unsuccessful Labour deputy leadership bid in 2007, was accused of quietly taking names.” 

Whether true or part of silly season…matters not.  It is a well known truth that Labour MP’s are again openly discussing whether Gordon should lead the Party.  Labour MP’s look at their Majorities and work out if they are safe.  They are listening to their constituents as they spend time meeting the people over this long recess.  Their chances for turning their Party’s fortunes are slimming.

Let’s add our own analysis to this.  The big question is how can Gordon Brown and the Labour Party turn round the current colossal opinion poll gap?  What can be done?  Well, the war in Afghanistan will continue to see losses of soldiers and will rise in unpopularity as the year moves on.  Unemployment and the economy is not out of the woods by a long way.  While some commentators say we are through the worst of the recession, what is also true is unemployment will continue to rise and the UK has a cancerous, spiralling burden of debt, which will require either huge tax rises on middle England and / or swathing cuts in public spending.  Both tough messages to sell.  Swine flu looks like coming back with a vengeance over the winter period, so any election strategist will tell you that Labour need a miracle to come their way.  So Brown has absolutely NO TRUMP cards to pay….none at all.

Labour’s biggest chance lies without Brown at the helm.

So let’s look at the coming months.  If TBB was Lord Mandolsen…the Kingmaker…, we would not want to leave the election until the last possible moment in June next year.  I would also advise against April & May next year.  In April next year, payslips being opened will see workers getting furious about their lower take home pay due to tax rises.  Hence, not the best time to hold an election campaign.   Let’s look at this year.  Bad news stories will continue to build over the coming months.  The Labour Party Conference will not be a happy affair.  It will be rife with leadership plots and bitterness at the prospect of a hammering at the next election.  After that we have the Pre-Budget Report which will no doubt reduce into stories about the tension between Numbers 10 and 11. 

So from a timetable point of view, the Labour Leadership election will need 2 months to run.  Then the new leader will need 3 months approx to enjoy the Honeymoon period.

So, if I was Peter Mandolsen I would recognise that I would want an election in March next year.  The economy should have more positive news stories in place by then.  (don’t forget we have to avoid April & May, due to the new taxes hitting payslips).  So, I would want a new Leader in place to enjoy January, February and March. 

I would want the Leadership process done by Christmas.  So I could wheel out the new Prime Minister over all the happy Xmas telly.  The new Leader can appear ‘nice and jolly’ on Xmas GMTV, Noel’s Christmas Presents, Christmas Top of the Pops, X Factor final etc.  So if we say the leadership election needs 2 months, it really has to start in October……hence expect the chattering to increase. 

Gordon will know this…..his Party know this……anyone attending this years Labour Conference…you will be witnessing Gordon Brown’s farewell Conference Speech…enjoy it…..but will it be the speech where he announces he is resigning, hence triggering a Leadership race.  If he were loyal to the Labour Party, he would do this…but we all know that Gordon has only 1 loyalty and that is to himself.  Or will he hold on and be advised in October that he has to go?  Let’s watch with interest but hope that Gordon can survive… for the sake of the Conservative Party!

The more we move further into this conflict, the more disgust I feel at Government inactivity and cover-ups.  They are beyond contempt and an embarrassment upon the great reputation of this country abroad.

The Telegraph reports today that the Head of the Army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, has called for more resources in Afghanistan.  This is finally after the Government have admitted key staff shortages are undermining operations to protect troops from roadside deaths.  Whilst Gordon remains on holiday, troops fighting on his direct command, take unnecessary risks and lose their lives.  Never has a leader had so much blood stains on his hands.

As deaths continue to mount up, we all have a duty to pressure this Government.  It is clear, we dont have enough protective equipment in the region, especially against roadside bombs, which have claimed the last 20 deaths.  We don’t have enough helicopters to ensure are troops are transported safely—or have the element of surprise on the enemy, by popping up in different positions.  The more that soldiers take risks because of shortages and the absence of a clear strategy, (as TBB blogged about 2 days back : http://bit.ly/QamCh), the casualty level will rise and success will be even further away.

What does Labour do?  It’s first, natural instinct is to attack and belittle the reputation of Sir Richard Dannatt.  Paul Waugh is reporting on his superb blog that an unnamed Labour Minister is making Freedom of Information requests requests targeting the “entertainment” costs of Gen Dannatt, who is now being seen by Labour as the Govt’s chief critic on poor resourcing of the troops.  The FoIs seek to find out just how much taxpayer cash has been spent wining and dining guests.  Obviously Labour wants to leak an expose on how much public money Sir Richard spent wining and dining guests at his official residence in Kensington Palace.  Take a look at Paul’s overview here.  http://tiny.cc/1kkJB

Thankfully Liam Fox has come to the defence of this dreadful attempt of smear.  Fox, an increasingly impressive front bench spokesperson, has stated: “Labour has now become the government of fear and smear. Whilst suppressing reports of their own incompetence, they attempt to undermine the reputation of one of our most distinguished generals.  At a time when our soldiers are dying in Afghanistan, ministers spend their time in puerile personality politics. General Dannatt is a man of honour and integrity who leads from the front. His Labour detractors are squalid and cowardly, undermining from the shadows.”

So Draper & McBride may have gone, their ethos and natural tendencies to smear and spread lies remains very much at the heart of Labour.  What a disgrace and shamble this Government are in their final dying days.

The ghosts of Christmas Past….their tactics live on at the heart of Labour

Peter Mandelson is a clever politician.  Loathed by Conservative benches, Mandelson is a shrewd opportunist who can manipulate popular opinion and massage  media messaging.  Brown relies on him implicitly now.  In the recent leadership debacle we learn daily new details of the lengths that Mandelson went to support Brown and prop him up, including speaking with each of the potential major leadership challenges to persuade them they were better off under Brown.  Without Mandelson it seems that Brown was a gonner!

There is nothing Mandelson likes more than power.  He is as addicted to power as much as any drug addict is to cocaine.  He simply will not stand by while Labour continues to drown.  Norwich North would have been a hammer blow to him.  Reportedly he loves Labour, perhaps unfairly I would say he loves power more.  Hence he MUST be now debating how the Labour Party can win / limit damage at the next election?  Norwich North would have confirmed to him that Brown is the Conservatives biggest advantage. 

So let’s put ourselves into Mandelson’s shoes.  He knows that Gordon Brown is now a liability and that there is little chance of Brown being in any way in a position to turn this ship around.  When and how to remove Brown is the best questionfor Mandelson to answer….and to plan for.

Labour strategicians are banking on good economic news coming the end of this year and the beginning of next year.  Labour will not want to wait till the end of June and most likely aim for an April election.  With the new tax year starting in April, people will see higher tax bills reducing their net pay.  This is not the message that a winning Government would want the electorate to experience pre going to the Polls, hence early April would be the optimal last date for an election.  S0 then Mandy must work back if April is the election date…when would a new leader be best placed to take the helm of the ship?  (calling an election before December would be suicidal as green shoots of recovery would not be felt by the electorate and that is what the Government are banking on to help their electoral chances).

So when would it be best to get rid of Brown?  Conference season in October?  This would not make much sense.  When replacing the leader, parties benefit for a short honeymoon period, whatever the circumstances.  The new Labour Leader could seek to distance themselves from the policies and unpopularity of Brown, to paint a new and rosy picture of what life would be like under their leadership but this strategy only works if an election comes within 2/3 months of replacing the leader.  If Brown was ousted in October, and Labour hope to benefit from better economic news and people to see recession is ending, hence aim for an April election, the new leader in place in October would be out of the honeymoon period and mired in events and any bad news.

So, if I was Mandy, (what a scary thought), I would aim for Brown to step aside in late November, with the Labour Party going through a ‘disciplined’ leadership battle, with a new Leader in place by the New Year.  New Year, New Leader.  Promote the hell out of him/her, (heaven forbid if Harman), in the New Year and then call an election for the last week of March/first week of April.

Agree?  Let’s see what happens……

Mandelson smells defeat under Brown….