Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

David Cameron sprinted faster than Usian Bolt to the TV cameras to defend the NHS yesterday, following Dan Hannan’s tv interview daring to criticise the NHS.  Hannan claimed he was ‘amazed’ that Americans were thinking of introducing a system like the NHS, called it a ‘relic’, concluding that he ‘wouldn’t wish it on anybody’. 

Also interesting to note that perhaps I was wrong on the decline of the Right Wing as with both Davis and now Hannan, wagging their tail and shaping the news agenda, things are afoot on the Right?  (Whither the Right…..Right Wing in Retreat? http://bit.ly/F7miZ)

Hannan was interviewed as Obama seeks to provide Universal healthcare coverage in the USA.  This is proving to be an issue to take him to his limits as the US people fear his plans and the harshest American critics have gone as far as to say the NHS is ‘Orwellian’ and even ‘evil’.

For those that missed Hanan’s comments.  Take a look at this clip from the brilliant Sky News:

This produced a veritable shitstorm in the media.  With News Channels struggling to fill their schedules in the silly season, this was like a gift from heaven.  Labour lept out the starting blocks and lied their way to headline grabbing attention.  Andy Burnham even had the audacity to call Dan Hannan ‘unpatriotic’. 

Cameron’s was the most interesting reaction.  He put down Hannan quite mightily, some would say patronisingly, by saying Hannan has ‘eccentric views’.  Wow.  I am sure that rattled Dan’s cage.

Now this whole shitstorm has many viewpoints.  First off, we are obviously living in delicate times heading towards the next election whereby the media and Labour will seize on any comments and twist them.  Hence any politician daring to criticise or make suggestions for improvements must know of the repercussions.  Hannan would have known that speaking on the issue of the sacred cow of the NHS, would lead to media headlines.  If he did not realise that to be so then I underestimate him as a man. 

Cameron is so close, so so close, to leading the Conservatives back to power.  He is trying to tread the tightrope to power and hence wants no damaging headlines and the full spotlight to be on Labour and their obvious failings.  Hence Hannan’s intervention would have pissed Cameron off royally yesterday.  Cameron has, give him his due, turned the health issue into a Conservative vote winner and no longer is it an election Achilles heel.  (Hence why Labour lept on these comments yesterday to reopen old wounds and hence why ‘Usian Bolt Cameron’ sprinted to belittle Hannan and show the NHS was safe in his hands.

For Cameron the NHS is a personal issue.  he more than many, has first hand experience of how the NHS cared for Ivan.  The NHS did all they could for Ivan and DC spent many nights sleeping in hospitals to be with his son and care for him.  Hence, Cameron has a life long support for the NHS and no person can credibly question his commitment to the NHS.  The British people know how much the NHS means to DC and hence Labour fear this.

But the other point to this story is that, so sanitised is British politics coming, is free speech dead?……or at least until after the next election?  Do Conservative politicians have to take a vow of silence and tow the Party line?  When is suggestions for new policies and ideas becoming a criticism and challenge to the leadership?

That feels anathema to modern politics.  We revel in being the finest Parliamentary Democracy in the world.  We revel in debate.  New ideas.  Challenging the status quo.  If an idea is strong, questioning it will either increase its value proposition or lead to a new idea and change.  But debate is being curtailed.  The House of Commons is run by guillotine.  sad times for free thinking and debate.

The NHS is treated by media and Labour alike as the sacred cow…..it must always be in place, never touched, never questioned.  Gordon Brown loves the NHS, then sneaks off for private healthcare.  Hypocritical to the extreme.

Is the NHS perfect?  No where near.  Does it need reform?  Hell, yes.  Can we talk about it?  Not yet….it seems.

So asking these questions, Andy Burnham would call me ‘unpatriotic’!  (what an idiotic statement from the Health Secretary, linking in patriotism and health care is moronic).

Does the NHS deliver value for the billions it spends?        (NO)

Is it right that it operates a postcode lottery for life-saving drugs?   (NO)

Why are hospitals still riddled with filthy wards and the MRSA superbug?   (YES WHY?)

Why does the UK still lag behind on cancer survival rates and waiting lists?   (NO CREDIBLE ANSWERS TO THIS)

Why do we need such a large, bureaucratic management structure to support it?  (WHY?)

The NHS Spends a billion pounds every 3 days and employs over a million and a half staff.  There must surely be room for cost savings and efficiency costs.   (YES)

There are huge inefficiencies. Spending on bureaucracy has nearly doubled in four years, with almost £1.2billion now lavished on administrators and clerical staff in Primary Care Trusts.  The total is almost twice as much as the £700million the Health Service spent on anti-cancer drugs last year.

So to David Cameron.  Yes, we have to win the next election.  Yes, the founding principles of the NHS must be respected and its egalitarian ethos preserved.   But isn’t now a great time for us Conservatives to start a deep, sensible debate about the future of our NHS. Now is a great opportunity, let’s use it.  We must stop just pumping more and more and more and more and more and more money in the NHS as unquestioningly as we have for many years.  The NHS could be more efficient with less money….now there’s a shocking point….spend less on the NHS and get better healthcare!

We must never shackle free speech.  We should not criticise others for opening debate.  Yes, we should be sensitive to the next election and opinion polls but we are a broad church and a party of reform.  Let’s discuss the big issues.

As a parent of three wonderful young daughters, I am asking myself many questions at the moment.  Not least that of what would I do if one of them contracted swine flu.  Would I trust Tamiflu or would they be better off without it?  That question comes all the harder, in light of today’s events.

After living through the debate over the safety of the MMR ‘triple injection’ in one jab and whether that was safe, with contrary evidence arriving almost monthly contradicting the previous finding, swine flu is now the question on parents lips.

What we know is that swine flu places the youngest in society at greatest risk, (under 12), far more so than it does adults and pensioners, hence leading parents wanting to act to protect their children.  Whilst Tamiflu does not prevent or cure Swine Flu it is supposed to lessen the duration by 24 hours and prevent the highest temperature excesses, which anything which helps our children, we would all want to do.

However research for the British Medical Journal, (BMJ), today states that Children should not be treated with Tamiflu as it can do more harm than good.  Researchers analysed studies involving children aged between one and 12 taking either Tamiflu or Relenza. The study found that the anti-viral drug can cause vomiting, which may lead to dehydration and other complications. Tamiflu was also found to have little or no effect when treating asthma flare-ups or ear infections.

This follows on after a recent study which found children given Tamiflu were reported to be suffering side-effects such as nausea and nightmares.

So as a parent I am very very unsure about giving my children medicine which is currently being touted by some specialists as ineffective and also some saying it will make my children worse!

This begs several questions. 

If it has no positive effects for children, can the same be said for adults?

Why have the government ordered so much stock of Tamiflu when it is proven to be ineffective?

Are tax payers again footing the bill for yet more wasteful, ill thought out, Government expenditure?

So, turning our attention away from TamiFlu….what hope for the Swine Flu H1N1 vaccine.  Rush produced!  Rush tested!  Little time to see effects on humans!  Will this have side effects?  Can the Government guarantee it doesn’t?  Do we trust them?  When initial vaccine stocks are available in batch one, (half the population), late this year, would I want to vaccinate my children in that first unproven batch…..or better to wait for the next batch…or would that be too late if the winter epidemic takes hold?

Tough times to be a parent and take the best decisions for your children.  I wish I could trust in what this Government says but it makes it impossible when it is addicted to spin and lying……

The REAL National Lottery maybe coming!……

So what is occupying the powers that be this summer?  Well apart from the recession, the busiest Government Department is Health.   Civil Servants are busy working on decisions that could affect our lives!  YOUR life, YOUR families lives!

Swine Flu is still the big unknown….how will it take effect.  Will it mutate?  Will it turn more deadly?  Questions none of us can answer as yet.

The Government has purchased enough vaccine against this strain of swine flu ie H1N1,  to vaccinate the entire population of 61 million people. All fine and good there……..but there is a but. A big but!  Come the end of this year, with the UK in Winter, with the swine flu projected to be at its height, we would have only received half of the order.  There comes the issue……..who is the priority and who gets the treatment?

As you would expect, health service workers on the front line will be in the first wave. We all support and understand that.   Pregnant women, the very young and those with existing poor medical conditions will also be high up the list.  Again, who can disagree with that?

Who next?  Should it be pensioners?  Normally high on any list.   Here’s the interesting dilemma, the elderly don’t seem to be as much as risk of swine flu. It is reported rates of infection and hospitalisation are relatively low.

So this leads to the crux. Who should be in wave 1?  Some have suggested a lottery. This gets round issues of discrimination by age, sex, or utility / criticalness to society.  If the young and old are equally open to infection then does this route make matters fair?  Some state that we need to make a valued judgement on who is most critical to society ie do we prioritise certain people based on their value to society eg is a businessman of higher value than a refuse collector?  A fireman over a librarian?  A teacher over a dinner lady?

Tough questions……and ones that officials are sweating over at the Department of Health as you read this.  All routes have their disadvantages.  How would society feel about asylum seekers getting injections over long term subjects of the crown? 

Maybe a lottery is the best way forward in a free society?

Our health service is creaking.  Under pressure from swine flu yes.  But also under pressure as Great Britain becomes more obese and unhealthy.  This is a massive problem which this Government are sweeping under the table.  We have the worst obesity level in Europe…twice that of France, we are truly not only the sick man of Europe…but the fat man of Europe.

Before we go on.  Some who are obese have medical reasons for being so and have to be differentiated to those who over indulge in their lifestyles, (which the vast majority of obese people do).

Obesity is one of the biggest health challenges we face.   Almost 1 in 4 adults in England are currently obese, and if we carry on as we are by 2050, 9 in 10 adults will be overweight or obese.  Did you know about 46% of men in England and 32% of women are overweight (a body mass index of 25-30 kg/m2), and an additional 17% of men and 21% of women are obese (a body mass index of more than 30 kg/m2 ).  Overweight and obesity increase with age. About 28% of men and 27% of women aged 16-24 are overweight or obese but 76% of men and 68% of women aged 55-64 are overweight or obese. Overweight and obesity are increasing. The percentage of adults who are obese has roughly doubled since the mid-1980’s.

This is providing an intolerable economic strain on the NHS.  The cost of overweight and obese individuals to the NHS is estimated to be £4.2 billion and is forecasted to more than double by 2050. The cost to the wider economy is £16 billion, and this is predicted to rise to £50 billion per year by 2050 if left unchecked.   That’s scary.

In society girls report an intolerable pressure to achieve stick thin figures like their heroes like Jennifer Lopez.  But in reality many are falling into obesity.

This is a huge problem, not just for the UK but more so for the USA.  Americans who are 30 pounds or more over a healthy weight cost the country an estimated $147 billion in weight related medical bills in 2008, (double the amount of a decade ago).  Obesity now accounts for 9.1% of all medical spending, up from 6.5% in 1998.  Overall, an obese patient has $4,871 in medical bills a year compared with $3,442 for a patient of a healthy weight.

Tackling obesity must be a priority of an incoming Conservative Government.  If the UK wants to reduce spending on the health service, we will have to get people dieting, exercising and living a healthier lifestyle.  We have to instil a personal responsibility into society to look after itself.  How can it be morally right for someone to abuse their body on alcohol, food, drink, and then expect to benefit from free health care?

This may involve punitive action on obese individuals through the taxation system.  We all have a moral duty to look after ourselves and lead healthy lifestyles.  If we abuse this, it cannot be right to expect fellow tax payers to bail us out.  Hence the stick maybe needed as the carrot is failing to work.  People like Jamie Oliver have tried to educate the young and parents but many schools still serve poor food.

The key is instilling a cultural change to weight.  This involves changes to what goes on at home, in the neighbourhood, in the schools and in the community.  We are trying to turn round the titanic before it hits the iceberg.

Why is obesity increasing?  Household Income – the risk of obesity in the UK increases the lower your household income, especially in women. Obesity is more common in adults employed in manual occupations as opposed to professional roles.  Ethnicity – For men, obesity in the UK is highest among the Black Caribbean and Irish groups, and women are more likely to be obese if they are from the Black African, Black Caribbean and Pakistani sectors. Age – obesity increases with age, peaking at about 65-74 years old. In this age range 30% of men and 34% of women are obese.

 Other risk factors for obesity include:

• Being an ex-regular smoker
• Genetics
• Lack of exercise
• Poor diet

Obesity tends to run in families, either because it is inherited and/or because families often have the same diet/exercise patterns. Children with two obese parents have approximately 70% chance of becoming obese compared to children with parents in the normal range, who have only a 20% chance.

Levels of childhood obesity increase the levels of adult obesity, since once you’re very overweight as a child it’s extremely difficult to break that trend. Research shows obese children are twice as likely to become overweight adults as slim children.

What is most worrying is our children.  In 2007 almost 23% of all children in the UK age 4-5 were overweight or obese, and nearly 32% of 10-11 year olds, although the true picture could be even higher.

Various factors contribute to children being overweight, including:

1. Not walking to and from school
2. Decreased participation in school sports activities
3. Watching television every day
4. Decreased activity levels in teenagers and children
5. Poor diet
6. Inherited factors

So why is obesity so important an issue.  What are its effects?  Well the more obese a person is, the more likely he or she is to develop health problems. Mild obesity involving a body mass index (BMI) of 30+, is less dangerous to health than morbid obesity (BMI 40+) or malignant obesity (BMI 50+). For example, someone who is 40 percent overweight is twice as likely to die prematurely as an average-weight person. This effect is seen after 10 to 30 years of being obese.  Obesity increases the chances of developing:

It’s time for action.

So we learn that the Swine Flu hotline will go live by the end of the week.

Good news….as there is a lot of panic about swine flu and people need to discuss and check their symptoms and get some peace of mind.

But………BUT

The swine flu hotline will be staffed by 1,500 non medically trained staff.  ‘Lay’ people.  People like you and I sitting on the end of a phone with a script to read and advise people……with the goal to stop people panicking!

So, given that the 1,500 staff have no medical clue, why not ask them about their views on the latest developments in Coronation Street.  Or whether England are on course to win the Ashes.  Or even their views on Speaker Bercow.  They may have more clue on these subjects as they certainly have no clue or remit as medical experts.

A disgrace to our intelligence.  Why open a critical healthline with no medical staff at the end of the line?

Andy Burnham, Health Secretary, states that political points should not be made on swine flu.  It is too serious a subject.  That’s the second subject that the Government have said is beyond criticism and should be worthy of cross party support, (ie War in Afghanistan being the second).

So when this Government feels exposed, is making a hash, it seeks to ensure that people should not discuss issues.  Sorry Andy, in a democracy, it’s our right to question.

What is the world coming to?!!!!!!!! 

As the UK dangles over the economic precipice, we cannot afford for ‘events, dear boy’, to knock the economy back further into the canvass.

But events is what is now threatening our economy and jobs.

If the Swine flu pandemic continues as it is forecast to do by the Government, then Britain could slide backwards towards a deflationary recession.

Ernst & Young have issued a report stating if a pandemic reaches 100,000 cases a day by August, lasting for 6 months, it would lead to a devastating fall of 7.5 % in GDP.  This is based on Government figures of an ultimate reach of 50% with a death rate of 0.4%.

Of course the fall in GDP is based on sick employees not going to work.  Also predicted is a fall in retail economic activity as shoppers keep away from crowds.  This also feeds into out tourism, sports, food/restaurants and entertainment culture.

Swine flu cannot be underestimated.  It is moving, according to the World Health Organisation, as an ‘unprecedented speed’, thanks to modern globalisation and travel.

Adding to this is the worry that swine flu may mutate and could turn deadly if it combines with avian flu in South East Asian hotspots or Egypt.

Let’s keep fingers crossed swine flu does not turn into the curse of this generation!