Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

Flight Lieutenant Victoria Anderton ruffled some feathers yesterday, adding to Gordon Brown’s woes.  She raised her hand to ask a question then stated:  “I’m actually going out to Kandahar to serve with the Tornado GR4s next year and can I say how much more confidence I have now in my chain of command than I had after Prime Minister Gordon Brown was here a couple of weeks ago.”   Listen to the reaction from the audience, top military and watch the face of the USA’s top military commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, during his visit to London.   Brown must feel depressed!

Let’s stop beating about the bush.  The situation in Afghanistan is getting very unstable.  It is deteriorating.  As we hear of another British soldier being killed on patrol, we learn that the Taliban, (and by Association Al Qaeda), are back into mass recruiting phase, especially from the bloated prisons in Afghanistan.  Terrorist networks and training are in growth mode….not declining.  Who tells us this…not our own Generals, silenced by our Prime Minister but by Gen Stanley McChrystal, who took over as US Military Commander in May.  he has stated in an in depth report that the US mission in Afghanistan will “likely result in failure” unless troops are increased within a year.

If the USA are worried about failing.  So must we.  Will we be required to send more troops.  How many?  What if we don’t?  Will the Taliban be able to take control again in Afghanistan?  All questions that our politicians must be asking today. 

More than 30,000 extra US troops have been sent to Afghanistan since May – almost doubling the US contingent.  The number of US troops in Afghanistan is already set to rise to 68,000 by the end of the year.  American citizens question this war and strategy as much as UK public.

In his latest assessment, Gen McChrystal is quoted by the Washington Post newspaper as saying: “Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term [next 12 months]… risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.” He warned that “inadequate resources will likely result in failure”. “Additional resources are required,” the general states in the summary of the report. He said that failure to provide adequate resources “risks a longer conflict, greater casualties, higher overall costs, and ultimately, a critical loss of political support”. “Any of these risks, in turn, are likely to result in mission failure.”

What is more fascinating is observations that McChrystal made about how the enemy, far from being on the run, are getting more sophisticated and back into growth mode.

The assessment offers an in depth critique of the failings of the Afghan government, stating that official corruption is as much of a threat as the insurgency to the mission. “The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and ISAF’s own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their government,” McChrystal states.  The result has been a “crisis of confidence among Afghans” . “Further, a perception that our resolve is uncertain makes Afghans reluctant to align with us against the insurgents.”

As a summary, in the report Gen McChrystal:

- Provides new details about the sophisticated nature of the Taliban insurgency

- Criticises Nato forces for focusing more on tackling insurgents than protecting Afghan civilians

- Censures the Afghan government for lack of action on widespread corruption

- Warns that Afghanistan’s prisons have become a sanctuary for active insurgents

This must be a worry to all of us.  Not least to the families and friends of soldiers serving in Afghanistan.  We need to review strategy, equipment, squad numbers.  The enemy are on the move, starting to re-build, recruit new members.  If the purpose of the war is to promote democracy and ensure that we protect our citizens back home, then the strategy is not working.  Turnout at the recent election was low.  Electoral rigging widespread.  Corrupt politicians.  Terrorists back training, growing their numbers, new camps springing up…..time for action Mr Brown.

The Czech Republic may well provide the British public what they crave…a referendum on the EU’s ‘hated’ Lisbon Treaty.  I can hear the celebrations taking place now…..yes, a UK referendum is looking ever more likely.  Ideally, the Irish will vote ‘NO’ and kill the Treaty off in a little under 2 weeks but if they don’t….wouldn’t it be satisfying for the British people to finally have the chance to kill this Treaty!

Latest news through has potentially profound implications not only on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty but the agenda & debate of the next general election. 

Yesterday, the Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer warned that a constitutional challenge to the Lisbon Treaty in the Senate could delay final ratification by up to six months.  This led to heated exchanges.  President Sarkozy of France had a hissyfit, he “exploded” when he heard the news, according to an EU diplomat, and is threatening the Czechs with unspecified “consequences” if they do not speed things up.  EU diplomacy…not like what you hear…bully and threaten the small states.  Unbelievable version of democracy.

Why is the French President so furious?  Most likely he views the Czech senators’ proposed complaint as a ploy by Václav Klaus – a long-time and vocal opponent of the treaty – to ensure that, even with an Irish ‘yes’, the treaty’s final ratification is delayed long enough to allow general elections to take place in the UK in 2010.

We cannot of course take for granted that the Irish will be bullied into a ‘Yes’ vote.  But the campaign in Ireland has been very one sided.  Brussels have provided officials to speak on all the national news outlets, tv advertising has been in your face and threats have been resonating with the Irish people, eg Vote ‘No’ and Ireland will be isolated, therefore lose investment and companies would relocate elsewhere…scary messages in a recession.  The degree of campaigning and ‘persuasive bullying’ for a ‘Yes’ vote has been stunning.  Such interference in the democratic process by the Brussels machine has been deplorable.  So, whilst we have to hope the Irish vote with their hearts and souls and stick to their original decision ie a ‘NO’ vote, we cant be surprised if the Brussels bullying pays off and a ‘YES’ vote comes through…as polls are indicating.  Hence this news from the Czech Republic is stunning and leaves many of us with a sense of hope. 

So if  Czech ratification is delayed until May, then our political parties could well go into the next general election with the whole treaty unratified.  David Cameron has a stated policy that we will hold a referendum if the Treaty is not ratified.  A ballot which would almost certainly lead to a strong ‘no’ in our traditionally Eurosceptic island nation.

This is a perfect scenario for Cameron and removes a major issue of contention.  Cameron’s biggest ‘ticking timebomb’ of an issue would have been if Ireland voted yes, the Czech ratified and hence the whole Lisbon Treaty was ratified and into law by the time Cameron could be in power.  It would have been a nightmare for Cameron to hold a referendum on a Treaty already signed into law.  It would have made him massively unpopular amongst his peers in Europe, (not that many would care about that but trade needs to run freely and not be interrupted by the machinations of disgruntled politicians).  Hence, Cameron coming to power with an unratified Treaty would be perfect as he can leave the choice to the British people…which we know would be massively in favour of rejecting the Treaty.

We know that Euro officials will do ALL they can to ensure that Czech fall into line.  They will never want the UK to vote on an unratified Treaty as it would destroy it.  Let’s hope that the Irish vote ‘NO’ and kill this Treaty but if they don’t….the Czech could lay us British the chance to drive the last nail home into this dreadful Treaty.

Now, thanks to the Czech Republic we may get our chance to vote in a UK European referendum.  The question is simple to pose:  ‘Should the UK ratify the Lisbon Treaty?  Yes or no?   ………. I look forward to campaigning actively, with many of you, for that ‘NO’ vote….unless the Irish save us the privilege!

This has been playing on my mind late at night.  Its implications are far reaching, yet our politicians are not grasping its seriousness.  Even our media are not delving deep into this issue.  The axing of ‘Star Wars’ is a monumental decision by Obama.   Obama has played sop to the Russians and ditched America’s nuclear missile shield in Europe, as part of a wild card gamble.  The UK feels a little less safe tonight with this decision, do you agree?

‘Star Wars’ / SDI was the £20 billion deployment of a system of radar and missiles to protect the West from nukes, particularly from the rogue states like North Korea and Iran.  Any missiles launched in anger against the West would have been intercepted from Poland and the Czech republic and smashed into millions of pieces in mid flight.

So why has Obama done this?  Some have stated that Obama and the US people were so pissed off by the betrayal by the UK by releasing Megradhi, they destroyed this plan.  Unlikely, but who can say that this was not a contributory factor.  More likely, is that as some state that this is Obama playing a clever game of cards with Russia, to gain their support, in ensuring Russia go back on their friendship with  Iran and agree sanctions, hence slowing their nuclear ambitions.  Back home, Obama’s right wing critics are stating this shows a sign of weakness in Obama and if Russia don’t support the USA in pressuring Iran, and getting the result of Iran denouncing its nuclear weapon ambitions, (like Libya), then Obama would have failed and made the world a lot less safer.  Obama’s brand is diminishing in the US, what with the health service reforms, this gamble could have implications on his Presidency back home.  Brave man…..or foolish….you decide.

Many dangers abound.  What if Russia sells Iran missile to protect its nuclear weapons labs from Western or Israeli jets.  Not beyond the realms of possibility.  This may prompt of course Egypt or Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons.  So Obama’s decision could have wide seeking implications.

Obama’s policy is unquestionably a gamble.  Remember his campaign slogan, ‘no drama Obama’.  Well this is ‘lets take a gamble Obama, with cards open on the table, ready to see Russia’s hand and desperately hope they fall into line with us’!

The problem with Obama’s policy is that he is also taking the gamble that it will take states like Iran a long time to build and be operationally able to deploy long range nuclear missiles.  Yes they can deploy short and medium-ish range weapons now.  But long range, Obama calculates that is years away.  This is based on intelligence assessments.  Ah yes, intelligence assessments.  The same type that stated that Saddam Hussein had ‘weapons of Mass destruction’?  Trustworthy then I guess! 

So what if intelligence assessments are wrong and in the short term, states like North Korea and Iran generate long range weapons? America will have short range systems ready for deployment but not long range.  It takes time to get long range missile defence systems in place.  It’s not like going to McDonald’s and ordering a quarter pounder & fries!

If I were advising Obama, I would be stating the optimum defence policy is one that covers all bases.  All eventualities.  Our duty as public servants is to ensure the protection of our citizens.

Of course, if Obama gets a big win and Russia pressure Iran to drop their nuclear weapons ambitions, that would be seen as a win.  We are nearing endgame with Iran.    On October 1st, Iran meets with the US at a world summit of top leaders.  If Obama’s team fail in those talks to get Iran to drop its nuclear weapon ambitions, then Obama has stated he will table a new sanctions resolution before the UN Security Council.  America, most likely, will target Iran’s oil and gas industries, (Iran’s lifeblood vein), most likely with a UN ban on investment in this industry. 

Hence spotlight on Russia.  Will they allow such a resolution to pass.  Obama is gambling since ‘Star Wars’ is dropped, Russia will feel obliged to pay back, and support a resolution.  But if Russia vetoes or dilutes a sanctions resolution, this will backfire on Obama and leave the West with Iran continuing to develop and enrich Uranium for nuclear weapon production, and leave the West more vulnerable to attack.

Tonight, on a key foreign and defence issue, Obama has gamble on the winning hand of cards running his way……!!!!

But what the media and politicians are forgetting is that Iran is not the only state with nuclear ambitions. Obama is too preoccupied with Iran.  North Korea are as unreliable and unpredictable a nation as you can get.  Who knows what Kim Jong will do next?  Hardly the most stable of Leaders.  Old, poor health, fighting for power and wanting to secure his place in infamy & history.  What has he got to lose by firing a missile?  What about Pakistan? A very volatile regime.  With a growing Al Qaeda influence in Pakistan, who can dismiss a coup d’etat one day?  Afghanistan.  Again, all sorts of possibilities.  What if the Taliban can buy or steal a nuclear weapon?  Afghanistan is a home to drugs….a great revenue generator for whoever has control!  What if the Afghanistan War becomes so unpopular, the USA & NATO pull out and the Taliban take control again?  So many possibilities.  Now, no defence shield to protect Europe, (and the West).

Europe feels a little less safe tonight…..!  The decision to axe ‘Star Wars’ is a gamble…will it pay off?

Gordon Brown…a man known for twisting the truth!

But do you believe that his Government played NO PARTin the release of Megrahi for oil & trade deals?

As each day passes we learn something new.

Jack Straw, Justice Secretary confirms today that the Government caved in to Libyan demands to include the Lockerbie bomber in a prisoner transfer deal.  The Libyans deserved ’something’ in return for giving up their nuclear weapons programme. Shortly after the reversal of Britain’s stance a multi billion pound oil exploration agreement between Libya and BP was rubber stamped!

But Jack Straw still claims the final decision was down to the Scottish Justice Minister, Kenny MacAskill. 

Hhhhmmm this story still has legs and it feels like we have not heard the full truth.  Thank god for a free press, who are pouring their time into getting to the bottom of this. 

The next election is still a long way from being won.  We cannot be complacent.  But it is interesting to start reflecting, should the Conservatives win, what Gordon Brown’s legacy will be.  What has he achieved?  How will history judge him?

All big questions.  Historians would say it is too early to judge as Prime Minister’s have to be viewed after a passage of time.  But there is no harm looking at what Gordon will potentially bequeath an incoming Conservative Administration.

So let’s do this succinctly and look at the major policy areas.

Economy

- Britain is in a deep recession.  It has been savage.  Brown claims this is due to Global economic shocks but the IMF has stated in their most recent report:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

- Changes made by Gordon Brown, as Chancellor, to the way banks regulated, widely credited for the severest banking crisis in the history of the UK.

- Unemployment of nearly 3 million, (official figures), (in reality closer to 6 million).

- Unprecedented National Debt of £2.2 trillion – just under 150pc of gross domestic product. This would be the worst debt total since the 1950s, when Britain was in the process of paying back its war debts.

- Bailing out a banking system.  Cost of the bailouts - broken down. Total: £904bn or 63% of GDP. A few highlights:

Northern Rock — £14.6bn.
Bradford & Bingley — £24bn
Kaupthing Singer & Friedlaender — £3.3bn
Landsbanki — £4.5bn
Heritable — £500m
Dunfermline — £1.6bn
All bank recapitalisation — £78.1bn
Credit Guarantee Scheme — £250bn
Working Capital Scheme — £11.5bn
Asset-Backed Securities Guarantee Scheme — £50bn
Asset Protection Scheme — £466bn

TOTAL TAXPAYER EXPOSURE: £904bn or 63% of GDP.

- UK Households severely in debt.  In the run-up to the crisis household debt increased to 175 percent of disposable income—one of the highest levels among advanced countries

- House prices have dropped by more than 20 percent from their peak and commercial real estate prices are down by 40 percent.

- Endemic Fraud.  HM Customs and Excise looks odds on to miss its stated target of reducing fraud and error to 5% by 2011.  It has been revealed that mistakes had risen to 8.6%, (from 7.8), in 2007 – 08, which are the latest figures available. This means that fraud and errors in the tax credit system cost £2 billion last year, which amounts to £1 in every £10 paid out.

- Falling tax receipts… Tax receipts have fallen by £32 billion according to the National Audit Office.  This includes a £6.4 billion drop in VAT income following Alastair Darling’s decision to cut the rate to 15% last November. 

- The policies that Brown has employed no-one knows if they are working.  The IMF cannot make any judgement on the effects of Quantative easing.  Is it working?  Has it had any effect?  Who knows?  The IMF don’t

- Lack of support for Small Business.  Claim:  This Government has offered more support to small businesses in the recession. Reality:  Official statistics show that it has guaranteed fewer loans in the year to march 31st. Businesses received 2,360 loan guarantees worth £177.8m under the Small Firms Loan Guarantee (SFLG) scheme and its successor the Enterprise Finance Guarantee (EFG) scheme, launched by Peter Mandolsen. Please remember…….This was a central plank in the Governments economic strategy for the recession. But this total, which includes loans approved before April 3rd is significantly less than the £205 guaranteed in the previous year, (taken from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills report). This is also far below the scheme’s £360m budget set by the Government in March 2008, which was raised to £1.3bn in January.  This lack of lending under the schemes runs contrary to the banks’ pledges to make more use of the SFLG and EFG schemes.

Defence & Afghanistan

- An ongoing war, with no end date in sight.  No clear, measurable, objectives.

- A British Army with insufficient resources, including manpower and equipment eg helicopters.

- 207 dead soldiers and rising

- With a stated aim of helping democracy Helmand’s province, a region with a potential electorate of 80,000 voters….only 150 voted.  That’s a turnout of 0.18% .

 A dis-United Kingdom

- Between 1998 and 2003, for example, economic growth across different local areas of the UK ranged between the drastic extremes of minus 1.2 per cent and 9.6 per cent, expanding the gulf between the poorest and the most prosperous. These marked trends have persisted through the rest of the decade, further aggravating the national divide. The latest data for the 12 principal regions of the country show that total GDP growth from 2004 to 2007 ranged between 13 per cent in the West Midlands and in Wales to more than 20 per cent in London. The divergences of performance become ever greater, too, as one considers smaller localities. The consequence is that the gap between the standard of living in the most affluent parts of the nation and its poorest areas is now wider in Britain than in any other developed economy.

Politics

- Politicians with no respect and distrusted by the electorate following the expenses scandal.

- Brown’s team closely associated with the politics of smear and lying, the Damien McBride affair typifying the lows of Brown’s closest aides.

- Lack of Leadership.  Ducks the big issues eg whether he agreed with Megrahi release

Education

- 50,000 A-level students will miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.

- The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18. 

Welfare dependency

- NEARLY two-thirds of council housing tenants get all their rent paid by the taxpayer.  dip their hands in their pocket to pay a total of £10billion a year.  That is the equivalent of £476 every year for every privately-owned home in Britain.  How do you feel paying £476 of your money to this cause?

 Health

- A society ill prepared for Swine Flu.  Call centres manned by non medical professionals prescribing Tamiflu to everyone that calls.  Children advised not to take Tamiflu.  Vaccine in full production but untried and untested.

- Almost 1 in 4 adults in England are currently obese, and if we carry on as we are by 2050, 9 in 10 adults will be overweight or obese.  Did you know about 46% of men in England and 32% of women are overweight (a body mass index of 25-30 kg/m2), and an additional 17% of men and 21% of women are obese (a body mass index of more than 30 kg/m2 ).  The cost of overweight and obese individuals to the NHS is estimated to be £4.2 billion and is forecasted to more than double by 2050. The cost to the wider economy is £16 billion, and this is predicted to rise to £50 billion per year by 2050 if left unchecked

- Britain has the worst cancer survival rate in Western Europe.

Immigration

- MigrationWatch UK has provided an estimate that the population of the UK, (which is already the most overcrowded country in Europe), will hit………a massive 70 million in the next 20 years, (whoever is in power). Yes that is 9 million more than today.

- Keith Vaz, Chairman of the Home Affairs Committee has announced that tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have entered Britain posing as students at bogus colleges and coupled with this the Government is doing nothing to track them down.

Going Green

- Going Green ….at a cost and massive debt.  It is reported that Britain faces a bill of up to £1.2 trillion to meet the agreed target set by G8 nations to cut carbon dioxide emissions in each country by 80% by 2050. This is made up of £600bn from the estimated cost of making all transport low-carbon by switching to electric or furl efficient vehicles.  £350bn which is the estimated cost of moving the majority of industrial and domestic energy needs to low carbon electricity. £250bn estimated cost of moving all heating from gas boilers to low carbon equivalent.

I could go on…and on…..please let me know what you would add to this.

Not a great legacy Gordon.  How can you sleep at night?

First up our Troops are magnificent.  The honour they bring to this nation is immense.  Brave, loyal…we owe them so much.  That is why we need to help the troops and question the Government.  Whatever one thinks of the merits of this campaign we should do all we can to help support our troops.  Hence this blog has been very critical on the strategy employed during the campaign and also the lack of equipment & support we provide our troops to get the job done.

Bob Ainsworth made it VERY clear that THEaim of Panther’s Claw, the military campaign which saw British forces lose 10 men, was to bring peace to Helmand’sprovince, so democracy could take place, as voters felt safe and secure when casting their ballot papers.  On the news today he is backpeddling from that stated aim but that is to be expected from a Government caught up in its own web of deceit.

So did we achieve the objective of bringing democracy to Helmand’s and people feeling safe to cast their vote?  Yes, if you say that 107 / 107 polling stations were open…the only problem with that was that, in a region with a potential electorate of 80,000 voters….only 150 voted.  That’s a turnout of 0.18% .  This figure has yet to be fully confirmed but it wont suddenly jump above say 5%.  That was a sign that the local population still felt threatened by the Taliban.  Hence in Helmand’s the Taliban secured their goal….make feel too scared to vote.

This again throws into question the strategy employed by the Government. 

We owe our forces so much more than this.  Bob Ainsworth consistently shows himself to be out of his depth in this role and is possibly one of the most uncaring Ministers I have seen explain away soldier’s deaths on television. 

God bless our troops for operating under such poor leadership.

Leaders have opinions…or so they should do.  Gordon Brown is showing a shocking disrespect to the victim’s families of Lockerbie and to the British people as a whole by remaining silent on HIS GOVERNMENT’S views on the release of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi, the only person convicted for the horrifying atrocity of bringing down a Pan Am jet over Lockerbie.

Gordon Brown stated he was ‘angry and repulsed’ at the hero’s welcome Megrahi got on his return home to Libya, including a joyous hug & greeting from Colonel Gaddafi.  Brown againre-iterated that  his government had ‘no role’ and it was a matter for the Scottish Government.  That is the only elemtn of the situation that Brown is happy to comment on—the release scenes.  That is not the crux of the reason we want to hear from Brown. 

Brown can hide behind excuses that this is a matter for the Scottish Government.  But given that Colonel Gaddafi’s son stated that Brown’s Government was implicated because of trade deals, (namely oil), and Gaddafi himself thanked Brown and his Government over the release, that surely merits comment from our PM as he is linked in.

Brown needs to answer the following questions to bring this matter to a close….

-  Does Brown agree and support the release of Megrahi on compassionate grounds?

-  Did Brown or any UK Official have any conversations with Gaddafi or his regime over the release in the past 6 months?

-  Are any trade deals pending between the UK Government and Libya?

-  What role did Peter Mandolsen play in proceedings?

If Gordon continues to duck these questions that really does imply he has something to hide!

Interestingly, it appears today, that to qualify for release on compassionate grounds in Scotland, an individual is required to have a life expectancy of less than 3 months.  Dr Richard Simpson, a Labour MSP, said medical reports indicated that there was ’significant doubt’ over whether Megrahi would die within 3 months!  let’s wait and see!  Something does not feel right with this!

The more we move further into this conflict, the more disgust I feel at Government inactivity and cover-ups.  They are beyond contempt and an embarrassment upon the great reputation of this country abroad.

The Telegraph reports today that the Head of the Army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, has called for more resources in Afghanistan.  This is finally after the Government have admitted key staff shortages are undermining operations to protect troops from roadside deaths.  Whilst Gordon remains on holiday, troops fighting on his direct command, take unnecessary risks and lose their lives.  Never has a leader had so much blood stains on his hands.

As deaths continue to mount up, we all have a duty to pressure this Government.  It is clear, we dont have enough protective equipment in the region, especially against roadside bombs, which have claimed the last 20 deaths.  We don’t have enough helicopters to ensure are troops are transported safely—or have the element of surprise on the enemy, by popping up in different positions.  The more that soldiers take risks because of shortages and the absence of a clear strategy, (as TBB blogged about 2 days back : http://bit.ly/QamCh), the casualty level will rise and success will be even further away.

What does Labour do?  It’s first, natural instinct is to attack and belittle the reputation of Sir Richard Dannatt.  Paul Waugh is reporting on his superb blog that an unnamed Labour Minister is making Freedom of Information requests requests targeting the “entertainment” costs of Gen Dannatt, who is now being seen by Labour as the Govt’s chief critic on poor resourcing of the troops.  The FoIs seek to find out just how much taxpayer cash has been spent wining and dining guests.  Obviously Labour wants to leak an expose on how much public money Sir Richard spent wining and dining guests at his official residence in Kensington Palace.  Take a look at Paul’s overview here.  http://tiny.cc/1kkJB

Thankfully Liam Fox has come to the defence of this dreadful attempt of smear.  Fox, an increasingly impressive front bench spokesperson, has stated: “Labour has now become the government of fear and smear. Whilst suppressing reports of their own incompetence, they attempt to undermine the reputation of one of our most distinguished generals.  At a time when our soldiers are dying in Afghanistan, ministers spend their time in puerile personality politics. General Dannatt is a man of honour and integrity who leads from the front. His Labour detractors are squalid and cowardly, undermining from the shadows.”

So Draper & McBride may have gone, their ethos and natural tendencies to smear and spread lies remains very much at the heart of Labour.  What a disgrace and shamble this Government are in their final dying days.

The ghosts of Christmas Past….their tactics live on at the heart of Labour

The House remains empty, but no time away for the British Forces

Whilst MP’s are away from Parliament, our brave soldiers toil away in the heat, fighting to provide us with the security we know and love back here in the UK.  These soldiers risk life and limb daily, hence we have to do all we can to show our support back home.  BUT by questioning the aims, objectives, troop levels, equipment employed in theatre, we are NOT undermining our troops, we are strengthening their resolve by knowing we are doing all we can for them.  Hence, with so much media questioning, politicians being critical and army chiefs both publicly and privately questioning the war, the time has come for an emergency recall of Parliament.  Questions need to be answered and David Cameron & Liam Fox need to get answers to the questions listed below.

A price worth paying?

Number of British troops lost in Afghanistan to date:  204 and counting…… (Number of British troops lost in Iraq war:  179)

Deaths by Age in Afghanistan: 26 (16-20), 73 (21-25), 54 (26-30), 22 (31-35), 12 (36-40), 3 (41-45), 4 (46-50).

Deaths per year: 2006 39 dead, 2007 42 Dead, 2008 51 Dead, 2009 67 Dead…so far

Wounded: 94 British soldiers wounded in July 2009 (double the figure of June).

Wounded year to date: 236 so far (last year’s total was 235)

So David Cameron, please demand a recall of Parliament.  Let the Conservatives take the lead.  David if you are worried of being accused of undermining the troops….you are not.  What is undermining the troops is the lack of truth being told and the fact that the soldiers families are telling troops on the frontline of the debates in our media on a daily basis.  David, you can stop this and clear the fog up by seeking the re-call of Parliament.  The electorate would thank you for it and respect your judgement of helping the forces. 

So the questions David Cameron and Liam Fox should be seeking answers to from Brown & Ainsworth:

-    What are our current mission objectives in Afghanistan?   (These have to be specific & measurable, not vague rhetoric of stopping terrorists reaching UK or provide democracy to the region….it could be argued that bringing democracy to the region will be achieved through the elections this month…but we know that troops won’t be pulled out post these elections as the region is still unstable, hence why we need more specific objectives).)

-    When do we know when the mission goals have been achieved?  Again, have to be specific so people can judge if we are achieving them.

-    What is our exit strategy?   When is this estimated to be?  Do the Government agree that, as reported by a Leading Army General, Britain will need to be there for 30/40 years, in what capacity and what numbers?

-    Do the Government agree with President Karzai that the Taliban and terrorist groups should be brought to the negotiating table today?  Would the UK Government negotiate with the Taliban?

-    What successes have been achieved thus far in this campaign?  Is Operation Panther’s Claw a success as Sky News on the ground reports demonstrate an enemy that is still very well organised and able to attack at will.  Why was Panther’s Claw judged a success?

-    On election day, the terrorists will be planning a series of atrocities.  What contingency plans have been made to protect citizens and British Troops?

-    How can Britain and the USA ensure a fair burden of military operations with NATO in this campaign?  We know that NATO partners have token forces in presence and those that are there are placed in more remote areas of Afghanistan with less chances of direct conflict.  Why is the Government silent on this issue and allowing Brits & Americans to shoulder the main bulk of the military offensive? 

-    How has the Government reviewed whether military equipment used by soldiers is fit for purpose?  Why do military top brass criticise their equipment if it is fit for purpose??

-    Are their enough Army helicopters to get troops in and out of the theatre of battle quickly enough?  Can the Government see any evidence of troops entering the battle theatre in slow moving vehicles leaving them exposed to enemy attack?  Why did a now dead army soldier report back on video that US Soldiers were taking the piss out of British Military equipment for being so bad?  Is cost the key influencing criteria for issuing military equipment into the Theatre of battle?  If so, has cost led to any cutbacks of equipment thus far and in what?

-     Has opium production increased or decreased in Afghanistan in the past 12 months?  What evidence does the Government have when reports indicate Opium production has radically increased?

-     Has Taliban geographical control increased or decreased in past 12 months and will the Government map out their perspective of the locations of Taliban spheres of influence, (including that of Pakistan).

-     If there was a terrorist attack in the UK by Al Qaeda would that then signify a failure of mission objectives in Afghanistan?

-     How many terrorist attacks have been foiled by Scotland Yard in the past 2 years by groups linked to the Taliban/Afghanistan/Al Qaeda? 

-     How many terrorist sympathisers are being monitored/tracked in the UK at this current time?

-     How many people from Afghanistan & Pakistan entered the UK under a student visa and cannot currently be tracked?

It is clear, from an exclusive interview on Sky News with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a Mujahideen leader who was once the Afghan prime minister, now leads the Hezb-e-Islami political party and paramilitary group, that nothing short of US & British troop withdawel from Afghanistan is what they seek and this war will be long and bloody. Take a look here.  Hence, the need to answer questions if we are in this for the long term……

It is only fair that every citizen, particularly soldiers and their families, know and understand our objectives.  They risk their lives…it is the least we owe them.

It is not unpatriotic to ask these questions.  It does not undermine our armed forces.  It does not show a divided nation.

Lets recall Parliament and reinforce our objectives and support our troops and their families by answering these questions.  They deserve nothing less.

For those interested take a look at previous blogs and insights into this subject close to all our hearts:

Afghanistan: Why we ALL have a right to question our strategy   http://tiny.cc/R0p1d

UK Possesses 67 Apache Attack Helicopters: Guess how many are in Afghanistan?: http://tiny.cc/z6iFp

Lest we forget….A Tribute: http://tiny.cc/rrzfq

Bob Ainsworth…the man…a message: http://tiny.cc/2GA0K

The Blood on Gordon Brown’s Hands: http://tiny.cc/ltofZ

Obama shifts Tact….as TBB looks into Afghanistan home of drugs & legalised rape: http://tiny.cc/qnEPi

Afghanistan…Questions Gordon Brown must answer now: http://tiny.cc/ObHC6

What the hell are we doing in Afghanistan? Why the Silence?  It’s time for answers!: http://tiny.cc/yIpKM

The Government is fast losing control over Afghanistan.  Putting aside partisan politics, our unified duty is to ensure that our troops operate to clear objectives, have the best resources behind them, to limit potential dangers to them and reduce the increasing death toll.  But it does not help that the Prime Minister has again been caught lying.  Thank god that Pinocchio tendencies are not real as Brown would have a nose longer than the river Nile!  This contempt for the British people and telling lies is fast becoming a norm and will be interwoven into his legacy. 

Brown has been calling all week for political parties and politicians not to break cross party support for the war as this undermines our troops and sends the wrong message to the enemy.  He tries to make us feel disloyal and that we are playing into the hands of the enemy by speaking out.  Of course, normally he is right.  But when the strategy is unclear and troops are sent into battle with less than adequate equipment, then people have a right to ask questions…it is OUR COLLECTIVE DUTY.  This weekend, not only do we have the Lib Dems & Conservatives raising questions, former Defence Chief John Hutton is entering into the debate, but we also have more insight into Defence Chiefs unease and even President Karzai of Afghanistan is questioning strategy of troop deployment and whether to negotiate with the Taliban.  All these strands show that Afghanistan is crying out for clear leadership and Brown has failed our soldiers on giving it and letting this situation get out of control.

Let’s look at the evidence from Sunday Newspaper revelations….

Remember this quote from the Prime Minister to the House of Commons, 2 days back?  Field commanders had “assured me that… troops have the equipment that they need”…..well that now appears not to be the case!!!!  ‘Surprise, surprise’ as Cilla would say.

Ever addicted to spin and managing the media, Brown organised a photo opportunity to highlight his support for British war heroes.  A young soldier and a charity fundraiser seriously injured in the war for Iraq joined Gordon on the steps of No.10 for a nice photo for all the national papers to print….making the electorate think of Gordon as a lovely bloke committed to our soldiers.  However, all did not go to plan!  What will be remembered is a quote from Sir Jock Stirrup, chief of the defence staff, and his admission he was “busting a gut”to get more helicopters for Afghanistan.  The quote nails the lie of Brown’s insistence these past few weeks that the mission in Helmand was fully equipped.  What makes Brown think he can get away with telling such porkers that defence Chiefs were happy…the truth always outs! 

This follows hot on the heels of a bad week for the Government that saw a minister anonymously attacking the head of the army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, as a “total c***”.   This enraged the army so much that they spoke out and hence defied every unwritten convention dictating that generals do not meddle in politics, and that politicians remain impartial.  As we know Bob Ainsworth had to write to all his Ministers to rein them in —the sure sign of a man not fit for the job.  Today…humiliatingly, we learn that the ‘real Prime Minister’ Peter Mandolsen has had to intervene to calm the situation and stop negative briefings toward Dannatt.  Bob is fast coming an embarrassment that this Government is carrying…what can Brown do….sack him?….that implies strong leadership!

Helicopters still dominates the news.  Interestingly, the Sunday Telegraph revealed that the Government rejected the opportunity to buy 12 “cut-price” helicopters, which were  nearly ready for operational use in Afghanistan.  Given spending restraints the Government opted to save money and focus on upgrading its own machines. Ministers rejected an offer of a dozen SA 330 Puma transport helicopters from the United Arab Emirates at a cost of about £6 million each.   How much would you price the value of 1 saved soldier?

SA 330 Puma transport helicopters.   

Today, John Hutton, Former Defence Secretary, has powerfully added his voice to the calls for extra troops and helicopters to be provided for British forces in Helmand in an interview in the Sunday Telegraph.  Did you know that there are about 25 British military helicopters in Afghanistan, out of more than 600 operated by the Armed Forces worldwide?   Hutton stated that the mood among troops on the ground was “unequivocal”on the need for more troops, helicopters and protection from roadside bombs.  Hutton predicted that there would be “urgent discussions” taking place on adding to the 9,000-strong British deployment. And he called for a promised review of troop numbers to be brought forward from October. In today’s article, Mr Hutton backed the Government’s strategy of stabilising Afghanistan and defeating those who would offer a safe haven to al Qaida. But he added: “It is going to take more resources to properly execute… “It is clear we need more logistical support to reduce the risk of as much of the troop movements and supply effort as possible.”

Some interesting points from John Hutton….but of course upping the troop numbers without a proportionate increase in helicopters and protective equipment would be foolhardy.  This discussion is not about adding more troops….it is bigger than that.

Last up we learn in the Sunday Times, the President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, is questioning strategy.  Karzai has asked the West to reflect on creating a new strategy for Afghanistan, warning that more troops does not go hand in hand with improving security.  “Military operations are no longer enough, We have to rethink the way we do things — without that there won’t be any improvement.”  That is quite a damning insight.  As the number of British troops dieing in Afghanistan reaches its highest numbers, the President of Afghanistan doubts the strategy is working!

But Karzai went one step further.  He called for negotiations with the Taliban!  Karzai would even be prepared for Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader, to attend talks!  Wow this has echoes of Chamberlain and Hitler!  This is smacking of appeasement and if the President of Afghanistan is happy to negotiate with the enemy, it makes you really question what would happy if troops were withdrawn today!  

Let us not forget, as demonstrated by a recent blog article insight into Karzai’s Afghanisatn, that the regime is corrupt.  Take a look here.  http://bit.ly/dLHNL   

Our soldiers and their families deserve better than this current policy, strategic, operational mess we are witnessing.  What is crytsal clear is the bravery of our soldiers who unquestionably put their lives on the line for this country.  Our support is unwavering for them.  But our support for what is right and the truth is also as unwavering and we have a duty to question and speak out! 

The most depressing of sights…fallen British heroes brought home in coffins.  No more….

President Obama has conceded in an interview with Adam Boulton on Sky News that a fresh review of Afghanistan strategy will be needed….after planned Afghanistan elections.  Obama was full of praise for the British troops and Britain’s ‘extraordinary contribution’ and felt the pain of loss at their death.  But he stated that the UK were more at threat than the USA from the Taliban and terrorists.  He raised the prospect that terrorists would be at pains to cause atrocities in London and that this was not just a USA war but a world war that the British needed to play a critical role.

So let’s take a look at the regime we are defending with British lives….the presidential election is due to be held on August 20th. This will be the country’s 2nd democratic election. The previous 2004 Afghan election was held on October 9, 2004, whereby President Hamid Karzai won thus granting him a five-year term ending this October.

The elections are all set.  On March 11, 2009, NATO officials announced that 15.6 million voters had registered to vote, roughly 50% of the country’s population. 35 to 38 percent of the registered voters are women.

These are the women that many are currently being ‘raped’.  President Karzai only recently signed a law the UN states legalizes rape in marriage and prevents women from leaving the house without permission.  The law, which has not been publicly released, is understood to state women can only seek work, education or doctor’s appointments with their husband’s permission.  Opponents of this law governing the personal lives of Afghanistan’s Shia minority have said it is “worse than during the Taliban”. 

How can women be demoted to such second class citizens?  Political analysts state that President Karzai is electioneering at the expense of women’s rights by signing the law to win crucial votes from Shia swing voters in this year’s presidential poll.  While the Afghan constitution guarantees equal rights for women, it also allows the Shia community, (10 per cent of the population), the right to settle family law cases according to Shia law. 

So, nice start….women are demoted to ‘slave’ status….what about the rest of the Government and state of the country?  Sorry to say, Karzai’s government is corrupt, muddled, and feeble. It is rapidly losing authority both in the Pashtun regions of the country, where most of the armed opposition to the Kabul authorities and the coalition forces is found, and in the still relatively peaceful non-Pashtun areas.

As stated on this blog many times, drugs drive the economy.  After the Taliban were overthrown in 2001 there was a lot of confidence about planned agricultural and industrial projects. Some of the promised aid & help aid has never been delivered, and much has been just frittered away and wasted.

Now as Obama states this is not a US led war….for him it is important to be seen as the USA being a part of a global alliance.  The unity of the Nato forces tasked to defeat the Taliban is quite frankly a joke.  Most of the countries supporting the US and Britain have sent their forces to lurk and hide in uncontested parts of the country.  This allows their Government’s to show they are playing their part but remaining popular at home as they keep costs low….both in terms of money and casualties!

And there goes the problem…….war is expensive both in terms of cash and deaths of soldiers.  Britain has suffered 15 deaths in 10 days and that is a terrific price to pay.  The cost is also crippling, especially in a recession.  £2.5 billion.  Many soldiers are also questioning the military tactics employed…… especially by the American forces, (which Britain depends on).  Some of these tactics are highly dubious eg the use of an air arm that sometimes finds it hard to differentiate between the enemy gathering for an attack and ordinary people gathering for a wedding!

Most challenging of all is the question of geography and territory creep.  This war is spreading across different borders. At the start of this war al-Qaida and the Taliban fled Afghanistan to find sanctuary in Pakistani villages.   But fast forward to today and that very Taliban and terrorist groupings have been eroding Islamabad’s control of the tribal areas and today the possibility of the possible defeat, or at least the retreat, of Pakistani armed forces in their own country is a reality.  That is a scary reality….and far worse than the situation we initially faced at the start of this war.

So who is likely to win the Presidential election?  While Afghans on the street openly complain about Karzai’s rule, surveys show he is likely to win a second term….why?….because his opponents have almost no support. A May poll found that 31 percent of 3,200 Afghans surveyed said they would vote for Karzai if the Aug. 20 presidential election were held today — NB he won 55 % support in the 2004 poll….that’s a big drop in support.  But Karzai would be happier to know that the poll showed that: 69 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of him, and 43 % of likely voters said he deserves a second term. Now here is the fascinating stat:  only 7 % said they would vote for Karzai’s closest competitor, Abdullah Abdullah. The next strongest opponent, Ashraf Ghani, had just 4 % support.

So, this interesting insight clearly shows that we face big issues and that the Afghanistani people also need to start putting their own house in order….they are a long way from doing that…..and we are a long way from removing our troops from Afghanistan…….what a mess!

Our economy is in a sick state.  Public debt is our cancerous growth which threatens to make us the sick man of Europe again.

As we review costs, maybe now is the time to review Trident and for OUR Party to place this on the Political Agenda.  But not for cost reasons…for political reasons…..(although saving £76 billion is a nice slice off the national debt, to go with the £45 billion for the ID Card Scheme).

Barack Obama has called for a nuclear proliferation summit for Spring 2010.  The language is softer…the goals clear.

Yes our goal must be to reduce nuclear weapons to the barest minimum but we reduce by ‘collective action’ and not unilaterally.  No unilateral cuts in our submarines or 160 warheads but that does not mean we cant discuss upgrade & cost reduction.

Obama is offering the world real cuts in nuclear stockpiles.  Russia and the USA have already agreed fresh reductions.  Obama says any future deals would involve nuclear powers reducing their stockpiles and offering civilian nuclear know-how to non-nuclear states in return for them promising not to develop nuclear weapons. 

Russia’s biggest concern is the missile defence system that Reagan started, in Europe, aka ‘Star Wars’.  Providing Europe and the USA the umbrella of defence against attack.  Initially attack was deemed to come from the Soviet Union / Russia but now that threat is defined as from rogue nuclear nations, typically Iran.  Now this is a fascinating game of brinkmanship.  Obama says to Russia, help us stop Iran getting nuclear weapons and there is no need for our missile defence system.  Clever.  (But of course Iran is not the only rogue state. Don’t forget North Korea who are desperate to build a bomb….and no doubt would not hesitate to fire against their Southern neighbours……and the Pakistan regime is so brittle that who is to say that the Taliban don’t topple it in x period of time).

Will we ever see a world free from nuclear weapons?  No.  Because you cannot uninvent the technology for these weapons.  The moment a conflict arises then the arms race starts again.  This is not the case if minimal numbers of nuclear weapons are kept.  Minimal is the key word and definition of.

So returning to the issue of Trident upgrade.  In this current environment of a willingness to reduce weapons….what message does it send out for Great Britain to be investing in upgrading its nuclear weapons when stockpiles are being reduced.  It’s like calling for a smoking ban while lighting up a huge havana…..not the best message.

Maybe it is time that the Conservatives predicted this issue and seized the agenda on the grounds of joining the Obama agenda of reducing nuclear stockpiles across the world and upgrading does not send the best message out to our friends and neighbours…and to those states wanting a bomb.  Imagine the UK saying….’Sorry…..we dont want you to have a bomb but we will upgrade our stockpile’…….a hypocrites charter. 

Go to it Liam Fox this is your weekend to seize the political agenda on Afghanistan and also Trident upgrade.

Number of British troops lost in Iraq war:  179

Number of British troops lost in Afghanistan to date:  179 and counting……

The time has come for the British people to have more insight into our war in Afghanistan.

Questions that Gordon Brown must answer:

-    What are our current mission objectives in Afghanistan?

-    When do we know when the mission goals have been achieved?

-    What is our exit strategy?

-    What successes have been achieved thus far in this campaign?

-    How can Britain and the USA ensure a fair burden with NATO in this campaign?

-    How has the Government reviewed whether military equipment used by soldiers is fit for purpose?  Why do military top brass criticise their equipment?

-   Are their enough Army helicopters to get troops in and out of the theatre of battle quickly enough?  Can the Government see any evidence of troops entering the battle theatre in slow moving vehicles leaving them exposed to enemy attack?

-    Has opium production increased or decreased in Afghanistan in the past 12 months?  What evidence does the Government have when reports indicate Opium production has radically increased?

-    Has Taliban geographical control increased or decreased in past 12 months and will the Government map out their perspective of the locations of Taliban spheres of influence, (including that of Pakistan).

It is only fair that every citizen, particularly soldiers and their families, know and understand our objectives.  They risk their lives…it is the least we owe them.

It is not unpatriotic to ask these questions.  It does not undermine our armed forces.  It does not show a divided nation.

I hope that Liam Fox probes these direct but fair questions.