Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

Did you see this?

Flight Lieutenant Victoria Anderton ruffled some feathers yesterday, adding to Gordon Brown’s woes.  She raised her hand to ask a question then stated:  “I’m actually going out to Kandahar to serve with the Tornado GR4s next year and can I say how much more confidence I have now in my chain of command than I had after Prime Minister Gordon Brown was here a couple of weeks ago.”   Listen to the reaction from the audience, top military and watch the face of the USA’s top military commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, during his visit to London.   Brown must feel depressed!

Let’s stop beating about the bush.  The situation in Afghanistan is getting very unstable.  It is deteriorating.  As we hear of another British soldier being killed on patrol, we learn that the Taliban, (and by Association Al Qaeda), are back into mass recruiting phase, especially from the bloated prisons in Afghanistan.  Terrorist networks and training are in growth mode….not declining.  Who tells us this…not our own Generals, silenced by our Prime Minister but by Gen Stanley McChrystal, who took over as US Military Commander in May.  he has stated in an in depth report that the US mission in Afghanistan will “likely result in failure” unless troops are increased within a year.

If the USA are worried about failing.  So must we.  Will we be required to send more troops.  How many?  What if we don’t?  Will the Taliban be able to take control again in Afghanistan?  All questions that our politicians must be asking today. 

More than 30,000 extra US troops have been sent to Afghanistan since May – almost doubling the US contingent.  The number of US troops in Afghanistan is already set to rise to 68,000 by the end of the year.  American citizens question this war and strategy as much as UK public.

In his latest assessment, Gen McChrystal is quoted by the Washington Post newspaper as saying: “Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term [next 12 months]… risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.” He warned that “inadequate resources will likely result in failure”. “Additional resources are required,” the general states in the summary of the report. He said that failure to provide adequate resources “risks a longer conflict, greater casualties, higher overall costs, and ultimately, a critical loss of political support”. “Any of these risks, in turn, are likely to result in mission failure.”

What is more fascinating is observations that McChrystal made about how the enemy, far from being on the run, are getting more sophisticated and back into growth mode.

The assessment offers an in depth critique of the failings of the Afghan government, stating that official corruption is as much of a threat as the insurgency to the mission. “The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and ISAF’s own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their government,” McChrystal states.  The result has been a “crisis of confidence among Afghans” . “Further, a perception that our resolve is uncertain makes Afghans reluctant to align with us against the insurgents.”

As a summary, in the report Gen McChrystal:

- Provides new details about the sophisticated nature of the Taliban insurgency

- Criticises Nato forces for focusing more on tackling insurgents than protecting Afghan civilians

- Censures the Afghan government for lack of action on widespread corruption

- Warns that Afghanistan’s prisons have become a sanctuary for active insurgents

This must be a worry to all of us.  Not least to the families and friends of soldiers serving in Afghanistan.  We need to review strategy, equipment, squad numbers.  The enemy are on the move, starting to re-build, recruit new members.  If the purpose of the war is to promote democracy and ensure that we protect our citizens back home, then the strategy is not working.  Turnout at the recent election was low.  Electoral rigging widespread.  Corrupt politicians.  Terrorists back training, growing their numbers, new camps springing up…..time for action Mr Brown.

The Czech Republic may well provide the British public what they crave…a referendum on the EU’s ‘hated’ Lisbon Treaty.  I can hear the celebrations taking place now…..yes, a UK referendum is looking ever more likely.  Ideally, the Irish will vote ‘NO’ and kill the Treaty off in a little under 2 weeks but if they don’t….wouldn’t it be satisfying for the British people to finally have the chance to kill this Treaty!

Latest news through has potentially profound implications not only on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty but the agenda & debate of the next general election. 

Yesterday, the Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer warned that a constitutional challenge to the Lisbon Treaty in the Senate could delay final ratification by up to six months.  This led to heated exchanges.  President Sarkozy of France had a hissyfit, he “exploded” when he heard the news, according to an EU diplomat, and is threatening the Czechs with unspecified “consequences” if they do not speed things up.  EU diplomacy…not like what you hear…bully and threaten the small states.  Unbelievable version of democracy.

Why is the French President so furious?  Most likely he views the Czech senators’ proposed complaint as a ploy by Václav Klaus – a long-time and vocal opponent of the treaty – to ensure that, even with an Irish ‘yes’, the treaty’s final ratification is delayed long enough to allow general elections to take place in the UK in 2010.

We cannot of course take for granted that the Irish will be bullied into a ‘Yes’ vote.  But the campaign in Ireland has been very one sided.  Brussels have provided officials to speak on all the national news outlets, tv advertising has been in your face and threats have been resonating with the Irish people, eg Vote ‘No’ and Ireland will be isolated, therefore lose investment and companies would relocate elsewhere…scary messages in a recession.  The degree of campaigning and ‘persuasive bullying’ for a ‘Yes’ vote has been stunning.  Such interference in the democratic process by the Brussels machine has been deplorable.  So, whilst we have to hope the Irish vote with their hearts and souls and stick to their original decision ie a ‘NO’ vote, we cant be surprised if the Brussels bullying pays off and a ‘YES’ vote comes through…as polls are indicating.  Hence this news from the Czech Republic is stunning and leaves many of us with a sense of hope. 

So if  Czech ratification is delayed until May, then our political parties could well go into the next general election with the whole treaty unratified.  David Cameron has a stated policy that we will hold a referendum if the Treaty is not ratified.  A ballot which would almost certainly lead to a strong ‘no’ in our traditionally Eurosceptic island nation.

This is a perfect scenario for Cameron and removes a major issue of contention.  Cameron’s biggest ‘ticking timebomb’ of an issue would have been if Ireland voted yes, the Czech ratified and hence the whole Lisbon Treaty was ratified and into law by the time Cameron could be in power.  It would have been a nightmare for Cameron to hold a referendum on a Treaty already signed into law.  It would have made him massively unpopular amongst his peers in Europe, (not that many would care about that but trade needs to run freely and not be interrupted by the machinations of disgruntled politicians).  Hence, Cameron coming to power with an unratified Treaty would be perfect as he can leave the choice to the British people…which we know would be massively in favour of rejecting the Treaty.

We know that Euro officials will do ALL they can to ensure that Czech fall into line.  They will never want the UK to vote on an unratified Treaty as it would destroy it.  Let’s hope that the Irish vote ‘NO’ and kill this Treaty but if they don’t….the Czech could lay us British the chance to drive the last nail home into this dreadful Treaty.

Now, thanks to the Czech Republic we may get our chance to vote in a UK European referendum.  The question is simple to pose:  ‘Should the UK ratify the Lisbon Treaty?  Yes or no?   ………. I look forward to campaigning actively, with many of you, for that ‘NO’ vote….unless the Irish save us the privilege!

This has been playing on my mind late at night.  Its implications are far reaching, yet our politicians are not grasping its seriousness.  Even our media are not delving deep into this issue.  The axing of ‘Star Wars’ is a monumental decision by Obama.   Obama has played sop to the Russians and ditched America’s nuclear missile shield in Europe, as part of a wild card gamble.  The UK feels a little less safe tonight with this decision, do you agree?

‘Star Wars’ / SDI was the £20 billion deployment of a system of radar and missiles to protect the West from nukes, particularly from the rogue states like North Korea and Iran.  Any missiles launched in anger against the West would have been intercepted from Poland and the Czech republic and smashed into millions of pieces in mid flight.

So why has Obama done this?  Some have stated that Obama and the US people were so pissed off by the betrayal by the UK by releasing Megradhi, they destroyed this plan.  Unlikely, but who can say that this was not a contributory factor.  More likely, is that as some state that this is Obama playing a clever game of cards with Russia, to gain their support, in ensuring Russia go back on their friendship with  Iran and agree sanctions, hence slowing their nuclear ambitions.  Back home, Obama’s right wing critics are stating this shows a sign of weakness in Obama and if Russia don’t support the USA in pressuring Iran, and getting the result of Iran denouncing its nuclear weapon ambitions, (like Libya), then Obama would have failed and made the world a lot less safer.  Obama’s brand is diminishing in the US, what with the health service reforms, this gamble could have implications on his Presidency back home.  Brave man…..or foolish….you decide.

Many dangers abound.  What if Russia sells Iran missile to protect its nuclear weapons labs from Western or Israeli jets.  Not beyond the realms of possibility.  This may prompt of course Egypt or Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons.  So Obama’s decision could have wide seeking implications.

Obama’s policy is unquestionably a gamble.  Remember his campaign slogan, ‘no drama Obama’.  Well this is ‘lets take a gamble Obama, with cards open on the table, ready to see Russia’s hand and desperately hope they fall into line with us’!

The problem with Obama’s policy is that he is also taking the gamble that it will take states like Iran a long time to build and be operationally able to deploy long range nuclear missiles.  Yes they can deploy short and medium-ish range weapons now.  But long range, Obama calculates that is years away.  This is based on intelligence assessments.  Ah yes, intelligence assessments.  The same type that stated that Saddam Hussein had ‘weapons of Mass destruction’?  Trustworthy then I guess! 

So what if intelligence assessments are wrong and in the short term, states like North Korea and Iran generate long range weapons? America will have short range systems ready for deployment but not long range.  It takes time to get long range missile defence systems in place.  It’s not like going to McDonald’s and ordering a quarter pounder & fries!

If I were advising Obama, I would be stating the optimum defence policy is one that covers all bases.  All eventualities.  Our duty as public servants is to ensure the protection of our citizens.

Of course, if Obama gets a big win and Russia pressure Iran to drop their nuclear weapons ambitions, that would be seen as a win.  We are nearing endgame with Iran.    On October 1st, Iran meets with the US at a world summit of top leaders.  If Obama’s team fail in those talks to get Iran to drop its nuclear weapon ambitions, then Obama has stated he will table a new sanctions resolution before the UN Security Council.  America, most likely, will target Iran’s oil and gas industries, (Iran’s lifeblood vein), most likely with a UN ban on investment in this industry. 

Hence spotlight on Russia.  Will they allow such a resolution to pass.  Obama is gambling since ‘Star Wars’ is dropped, Russia will feel obliged to pay back, and support a resolution.  But if Russia vetoes or dilutes a sanctions resolution, this will backfire on Obama and leave the West with Iran continuing to develop and enrich Uranium for nuclear weapon production, and leave the West more vulnerable to attack.

Tonight, on a key foreign and defence issue, Obama has gamble on the winning hand of cards running his way……!!!!

But what the media and politicians are forgetting is that Iran is not the only state with nuclear ambitions. Obama is too preoccupied with Iran.  North Korea are as unreliable and unpredictable a nation as you can get.  Who knows what Kim Jong will do next?  Hardly the most stable of Leaders.  Old, poor health, fighting for power and wanting to secure his place in infamy & history.  What has he got to lose by firing a missile?  What about Pakistan? A very volatile regime.  With a growing Al Qaeda influence in Pakistan, who can dismiss a coup d’etat one day?  Afghanistan.  Again, all sorts of possibilities.  What if the Taliban can buy or steal a nuclear weapon?  Afghanistan is a home to drugs….a great revenue generator for whoever has control!  What if the Afghanistan War becomes so unpopular, the USA & NATO pull out and the Taliban take control again?  So many possibilities.  Now, no defence shield to protect Europe, (and the West).

Europe feels a little less safe tonight…..!  The decision to axe ‘Star Wars’ is a gamble…will it pay off?

Gordon Brown…a man known for twisting the truth!

But do you believe that his Government played NO PARTin the release of Megrahi for oil & trade deals?

As each day passes we learn something new.

Jack Straw, Justice Secretary confirms today that the Government caved in to Libyan demands to include the Lockerbie bomber in a prisoner transfer deal.  The Libyans deserved ‘something’ in return for giving up their nuclear weapons programme. Shortly after the reversal of Britain’s stance a multi billion pound oil exploration agreement between Libya and BP was rubber stamped!

But Jack Straw still claims the final decision was down to the Scottish Justice Minister, Kenny MacAskill. 

Hhhhmmm this story still has legs and it feels like we have not heard the full truth.  Thank god for a free press, who are pouring their time into getting to the bottom of this. 

The next election is still a long way from being won.  We cannot be complacent.  But it is interesting to start reflecting, should the Conservatives win, what Gordon Brown’s legacy will be.  What has he achieved?  How will history judge him?

All big questions.  Historians would say it is too early to judge as Prime Minister’s have to be viewed after a passage of time.  But there is no harm looking at what Gordon will potentially bequeath an incoming Conservative Administration.

So let’s do this succinctly and look at the major policy areas.

Economy

- Britain is in a deep recession.  It has been savage.  Brown claims this is due to Global economic shocks but the IMF has stated in their most recent report:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

- Changes made by Gordon Brown, as Chancellor, to the way banks regulated, widely credited for the severest banking crisis in the history of the UK.

- Unemployment of nearly 3 million, (official figures), (in reality closer to 6 million).

- Unprecedented National Debt of £2.2 trillion – just under 150pc of gross domestic product. This would be the worst debt total since the 1950s, when Britain was in the process of paying back its war debts.

- Bailing out a banking system.  Cost of the bailouts - broken down. Total: £904bn or 63% of GDP. A few highlights:

Northern Rock — £14.6bn.
Bradford & Bingley — £24bn
Kaupthing Singer & Friedlaender — £3.3bn
Landsbanki — £4.5bn
Heritable — £500m
Dunfermline — £1.6bn
All bank recapitalisation — £78.1bn
Credit Guarantee Scheme — £250bn
Working Capital Scheme — £11.5bn
Asset-Backed Securities Guarantee Scheme — £50bn
Asset Protection Scheme — £466bn

TOTAL TAXPAYER EXPOSURE: £904bn or 63% of GDP.

- UK Households severely in debt.  In the run-up to the crisis household debt increased to 175 percent of disposable income—one of the highest levels among advanced countries

- House prices have dropped by more than 20 percent from their peak and commercial real estate prices are down by 40 percent.

- Endemic Fraud.  HM Customs and Excise looks odds on to miss its stated target of reducing fraud and error to 5% by 2011.  It has been revealed that mistakes had risen to 8.6%, (from 7.8), in 2007 – 08, which are the latest figures available. This means that fraud and errors in the tax credit system cost £2 billion last year, which amounts to £1 in every £10 paid out.

- Falling tax receipts… Tax receipts have fallen by £32 billion according to the National Audit Office.  This includes a £6.4 billion drop in VAT income following Alastair Darling’s decision to cut the rate to 15% last November. 

- The policies that Brown has employed no-one knows if they are working.  The IMF cannot make any judgement on the effects of Quantative easing.  Is it working?  Has it had any effect?  Who knows?  The IMF don’t

- Lack of support for Small Business.  Claim:  This Government has offered more support to small businesses in the recession. Reality:  Official statistics show that it has guaranteed fewer loans in the year to march 31st. Businesses received 2,360 loan guarantees worth £177.8m under the Small Firms Loan Guarantee (SFLG) scheme and its successor the Enterprise Finance Guarantee (EFG) scheme, launched by Peter Mandolsen. Please remember…….This was a central plank in the Governments economic strategy for the recession. But this total, which includes loans approved before April 3rd is significantly less than the £205 guaranteed in the previous year, (taken from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills report). This is also far below the scheme’s £360m budget set by the Government in March 2008, which was raised to £1.3bn in January.  This lack of lending under the schemes runs contrary to the banks’ pledges to make more use of the SFLG and EFG schemes.

Defence & Afghanistan

- An ongoing war, with no end date in sight.  No clear, measurable, objectives.

- A British Army with insufficient resources, including manpower and equipment eg helicopters.

- 207 dead soldiers and rising

- With a stated aim of helping democracy Helmand’s province, a region with a potential electorate of 80,000 voters….only 150 voted.  That’s a turnout of 0.18% .

 A dis-United Kingdom

- Between 1998 and 2003, for example, economic growth across different local areas of the UK ranged between the drastic extremes of minus 1.2 per cent and 9.6 per cent, expanding the gulf between the poorest and the most prosperous. These marked trends have persisted through the rest of the decade, further aggravating the national divide. The latest data for the 12 principal regions of the country show that total GDP growth from 2004 to 2007 ranged between 13 per cent in the West Midlands and in Wales to more than 20 per cent in London. The divergences of performance become ever greater, too, as one considers smaller localities. The consequence is that the gap between the standard of living in the most affluent parts of the nation and its poorest areas is now wider in Britain than in any other developed economy.

Politics

- Politicians with no respect and distrusted by the electorate following the expenses scandal.

- Brown’s team closely associated with the politics of smear and lying, the Damien McBride affair typifying the lows of Brown’s closest aides.

- Lack of Leadership.  Ducks the big issues eg whether he agreed with Megrahi release

Education

- 50,000 A-level students will miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.

- The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18. 

Welfare dependency

- NEARLY two-thirds of council housing tenants get all their rent paid by the taxpayer.  dip their hands in their pocket to pay a total of £10billion a year.  That is the equivalent of £476 every year for every privately-owned home in Britain.  How do you feel paying £476 of your money to this cause?

 Health

- A society ill prepared for Swine Flu.  Call centres manned by non medical professionals prescribing Tamiflu to everyone that calls.  Children advised not to take Tamiflu.  Vaccine in full production but untried and untested.

- Almost 1 in 4 adults in England are currently obese, and if we carry on as we are by 2050, 9 in 10 adults will be overweight or obese.  Did you know about 46% of men in England and 32% of women are overweight (a body mass index of 25-30 kg/m2), and an additional 17% of men and 21% of women are obese (a body mass index of more than 30 kg/m2 ).  The cost of overweight and obese individuals to the NHS is estimated to be £4.2 billion and is forecasted to more than double by 2050. The cost to the wider economy is £16 billion, and this is predicted to rise to £50 billion per year by 2050 if left unchecked

- Britain has the worst cancer survival rate in Western Europe.

Immigration

- MigrationWatch UK has provided an estimate that the population of the UK, (which is already the most overcrowded country in Europe), will hit………a massive 70 million in the next 20 years, (whoever is in power). Yes that is 9 million more than today.

- Keith Vaz, Chairman of the Home Affairs Committee has announced that tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have entered Britain posing as students at bogus colleges and coupled with this the Government is doing nothing to track them down.

Going Green

- Going Green ….at a cost and massive debt.  It is reported that Britain faces a bill of up to £1.2 trillion to meet the agreed target set by G8 nations to cut carbon dioxide emissions in each country by 80% by 2050. This is made up of £600bn from the estimated cost of making all transport low-carbon by switching to electric or furl efficient vehicles.  £350bn which is the estimated cost of moving the majority of industrial and domestic energy needs to low carbon electricity. £250bn estimated cost of moving all heating from gas boilers to low carbon equivalent.

I could go on…and on…..please let me know what you would add to this.

Not a great legacy Gordon.  How can you sleep at night?