Reading through the Daily Mail today, I was rather perturbed to read the Ephraim Hardcastle column and this entry:

“Overtly gay Tory blogger Iain Dale has reached the final stage of parliamentary selection for Bracknell, telling PinkNews: ‘I hope any PinkNews readers who live in Bracknell will come to the open primary on October 17 to select their new candidate.  You don’t even have to be a Conservative to attend.’  Isn’t it charming how homosexuals rally like-minded chaps to their cause?”

Any way which you cut this, it is a deeply offensive slur on Iain Dale and is homophobic.  Why do some journalists feel compelled to have to raise Iain’s sexuality when they discuss him.  It gets tiresome and I for one am sick of pathetic homophobic jibes.

The language is poor.  What makes Iain ‘overtly gay’.  What does that mean?  Vile.  The last phrase is the poorest and for any journalist to write, ‘isn’t it charming how homosexuals rally like-minded chaps to their cause?’ , is plunging journalism to new depths.

Iain gives his views here.  The strength of feeling shows with over 185 comments to his blog.  Iain has written to the Press Complaints Commission.

Let’s hope the Daily Mail apologises to Iain and never again repeats this homophobic language.  Poor show.  It is offensive to all in society to read such base journalism.

I have a lot of time for Iain.  It is obvious he is highly respected in the Westminster village, from all sides of the House.  His passion for politics is infectious.  I visit his blog daily, on a frequent basis and am impressed by his perception and how he makes politics interesting for all.

I sincerely wish him all the best in Bracknell.  I don’t know the other candidates, have only heard good things about the quality of the shortlist, but one things for certain, as I have said before, the House of Commons needs thinkers like Iain Dale.

What a bad day for Gordon Brown and New/Old Labour.  (And a great day for former Sun & News of the World man, Andy Coulson, Director of Communications for the Tories).

The Sun newspaper throws its full weight behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.  Major blow for Labour.  Of course we all remember the great Sun headlines in 1992, on the day of the election: ‘If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain, please turn out the lights’.  The election was predicted to be a Labour win and hence when John  Major and the Conservatives defied the polls, the Sun claimed that its readership changed the election result with its help, hence the headline: ‘It’s the Sun wot won it’!  There can be no doubt that the media can shape the agenda and sway opinion…but to what degree is the question.

Welcome back ‘The Sun’, we missed you, although recent editorials have felt distinctly Conservative and your policies on immigration, Europe, tax cuts, law and order have always felt more akin to Conservatives than Labour.

Of course Labour are discounting this move by the Sun.  Brown says its the people who decide elections not the media.  Of course he would say that.  Blair was euphoric when The Sun supported in back in 1997. 

There is no doubt The Sun is a great national weather vane in British politics.  It backs the winner.  It senses that, even with 8 months to go, that the Conservatives will win.  Dont forget that The Sun’s circulation is 3.1m, which then is estimated that 3 people read that one copy, hence nearly a 10m readership!  That’s a huge difference.  Yes of course, The Sun urging people to vote Conservative is a big thing BUT hat is even bigger is the headlines and reporting style moving forward.  Noone will ever forget Neil Kinnock’s head in that lightbulb.  Noone will ever forget former England Manager Graham Taylor’s head shaped into a turnip…’Turnip Taylor’.  This reporting of headlines and caricatures of Brown will have its effect.

So what makes this story so powerful is its timing.  The Sun’s timing is immaculate and devastating.  At the start of the Conference, Labour were in dire straits, the hall was half empty, delegates were quiet and fed up.  Conference was more akin to a morgue.  But still a little flicker of fight back started.  Mandelson started picking them up.  Gordon tried again to rally them.  The hall felt a little more purpose.  But then…….BANG, The Sun kicks all this into touch and the Conference is back to doom and gloom and depression. 

Credit must go to the back room hidden communication maestro Andy Coulson, Conservatives Director of Communications.   Andy may operate in the shadows but his impact is front page.  Whilst Labour champion Mandelson and Alastair Campbell, we have a media maestro in Andy Coulson.  Dont forget Andy used to be very close in Murdoch’s Empire, as a former Editor of The News of the World and editor of The Sun’s showbizz column, ‘Bizarre’.  Surely Andy had a quiet word with his great buddy and new Editor at the Sun Dominic Mohan, (also a former editor of the showbizz column, ‘Bizarre’!  The timing is just too devastating to be left to chance….so credit to you Andy Coulson….great job.

At the time of Andy’s appointment as Conservatives Director of Communications, David Cameron stated: “Andy will make a formidable contribution as a senior member of my team in building the most effective strategy and operation to win the next general election. I look forward very much to working with him”.  DC, good call….Andy has already left his mark !  Pay rise that man!

So bad start to to the day for Gordon….but it gets worse…….

The Financial Times, launched its own equivalent of a damaging editorial on Brown.  Remember the readership of the FT is professionals, entrepreneurs, risk takers, wealth generators.  For the FT to report on Gordon Brown’s views on the failure of the market economy and need for more and more intervention, is as powerful in that community as The Sun announcing its support to its own readership.  This week Labour have been bashing the bankers at every opportunity.  Brown did the same.  This is coming home to roost now and the FT made clear its concern at intervention, market corrections and bashing bankers.  Don’t forget, much of the public spending that Brown has spent has been generated for many years by those bankers.  (And even more Brown spent was on tick!).  Those bankers will be the ones to help repay those debts, hence Brown bashing them, will secure him even less City support.  Not the best City PR strategy Gordon!

But still it gets worse…….

Iain Dale  reports today that the Labour Party is in dire straits financially.  Noone is investing cash in what is seen as a lame duck administration.  Iain reports close Labour sources that state Labour does not have enough cash to front an effective election campaign.  Also the prospect of Labour going bankrupt is raised as there is too little cash to meet its annual loan interest payments of £2 million.  That is a dire situation to be in.  So not only has Labour demonstrated it is inept in running the nation’s finances and landing us with the largest public deficit in history, unsurprisingly it has made mess of its own finances.  Hence, Labour is even more dependent on the Unions, especially UNITE, for its cash.  Expect to see a surge in Labour propaganda to the Left as Labour Leadership placate their comrades in the Unions as they beg for election cash!

Not surprisingly, Gordon, is ‘furious’ today, (in the words of the Evening Standard).  This has shone through……

Did you see Gordon’s interview with Adam Boulton on Sky News today?  Gordon is obviously tired and frustrated but take time out and listen to this poor interview.  He is evasive, he badgers the interviewer.  Worst of all he accuses Adam of being a political propagandist.  He may think that but to say it is poor.  This is the Prime Minister, not a 3rd grade debating contender.  Poor show Gordon, poor show!   

Which led to this headline in today’s Evening Standard.  Is he cracking up?

Prime Minister cutting Trident budget.  Prime Minister cutting £2bn off education spending.  More cuts yet to be announced as Whitehall Mandarins currently do the maths.  Where does this leave the Tories?  Is the Emperor trying to steal our clothes?

One of the key differentiators over the summer, ‘clear blue water’, between Labour and Tories has been the early identification by the Conservatives that there needed to be spending cuts to reduce the spiralling deficit.  Pre the recess Gordon Brown was scornful of Cameron’s policies.  At times deeply patronising.  For Brown the choice was between ‘Tory cuts, Labour Investment’.  Cameron was Mr 10%.  The man would axe teachers, health workers, public sector jobs etc.  Oh how times have changed over the Summer.  Brown has been dragged kicking and screaming down the road to Damascus.

Labour have now u-turned.  They have done a complete 180 degree turn and now are prioritising expenditure reviews….only because necessity dictates.  Brown wants to avoid that visit to the IMF, cap in hand, for a bailout of bankrupt Britain….pre the election at least.  So how has this situation developed over the past 2 weeks?  First up, leaked Treasury documents showed that Labour have been in the planning stages of 10% cuts over this summer, (making the abuse that Brown gave Cameron as Mr 10% farcical and deeply offensive).  Ed Balls comes out at the weekend to announce £2bn cuts in education spending.  Yes, this involves axing teaching staff, (something Cameron had been accused of).  Now today, Brown announces he is planning to cut circa 1/4 off Trident spending.  More spending cuts will be announced over the coming weeks.

Trident is an easy card for Brown to play.  He needs his friends on the Left of the Party.  The card carrying dregs left of CND will rejoice that this decision is a move in their direction, albeit only 1 submarine!   It will be interesting to see how Cameron plays the Trident decision.  The Conservatives have always been the Party of Defence.  Known for strong investment into the defence of the realm.  Does he play this card?  Does Cameron say that Labour is leaving the country weaker, as evidenced by the Afghanistan war with soldiers left with insufficient manpower, equipment, armoury, transportation and air power, backing this up with cuts in Trident? 

Or does Cameron focus on economic reality.  He needs to make big cuts.  Not every area can be ring fenced.  The health service is sacrosanct. But cuts need to be made, is Trident one area?  Tough decisions, which will be political by nature.  Cameron also has to be aware of the prevailing times.  Obama’s New World Order, reduce nuclear proliferation.  But times that also pose new dangers.  Unpredictable rogue states like Iran, North Korea, an unstable Pakistan and a real threat of a non conclusion to the Afghanistan War, hence leaving the Taliban regaining control.  Real danger exists and must never be discounted.

The public spending debate is starting to change.  It is no longer a choice of cuts vs. investment.  It is a choice of what gets cut and how much?  As we move forward, ardent critics of the Government’s policy in the past who urged drastic cuts in spending like World Bank, IMF, IOD, CBI, will neutralize their stance / start to make positive noises towards Labour, as they at last announce cuts.  The public sometimes have short memories and hence while the Tories led the way on proposing cuts, the Government will demonstrate they have been cutting, hence moving some way to shortening / blurring the clear blue water we built on this issue.

Now what is the best policy for the Conservatives moving forward?  We could be out manoeuvred by Labour!  This is a key strategic decision by Cameron & team.

Option 1 is silence.  Do the Conservatives need to detail all the policy areas they would cut?  This in effect is the age old argument over whether an Opposition should reveal a shadow budget.  Given spending decisions are being made, unpopularity will follow for this Government.  Already in education, teaching unions are discussing the need for strike action.  Do the Conservatives need to enter into a spending squabble between the Government and Teaching Unions, when we can leave them to it and grab the pop corn and enjoy the fireworks and watch our poll ratings rise.   As other cuts are announced.  More attacks will be made on the Government by those affected.  Strikes will follow.  Public protests.  Marches.  Demonstrations.  All from which we could sit back and watch poll support, in theory rise!

Danger of this strategy is Labour’s response and whether it would resonate with the public.  It is clear that Mandolsen’s strategy in the next election will be, there will be gentle cuts under Labour, precision cuts by a skilled surgeon, and the slogan will be life would be worse under the Tories.  They will state that Tories would propose ‘savage’ cuts.  They will try to paint us as ideologically committed and turned on by spending cuts.  They will paint us as the Party of Unemployment.  This will be the line that every Cabinet Minister will subconsciously try to drum into the electorate’s head.  But will the electorate believe that?  Will they trust a proven lying Government?  That’s the gamble.

Option 2.  That is for the Conservatives to take charge of the spending question.  George Osborne could call a press conference this week and show economic leadership by providing more detail in what Conservatives propose to cut.  We know that Whitehall is preparing the figures and Ministers chewing over what has to be cut.  Before they announce their results, Osborne could have trumped them and then accused Labour of copying Conservative proposals.  We know that Labour are happy to steal our clothing.  Look at Tony Blair.  New Labour was socialism in a pink dress and nice stiletto’s, hiding the evils which lay beneath. 

These are interesting strategic times.  Critical as we approach the next election.  As Conservatives move further towards the Left to attract Liberal Democrat voters, we have to ensure that a clear choice still remains for the electorate.  Choosing between different shades of the same colour can make it easier for bigger poll swings, one way or another.  Electoral volatility is well known in our electoral history.  1992 is a great example, with Major beating the odds, despite poll ratings being wildly wrong.

Of course, Labour are mightily unpopular today.  But what if Brown does decide to retire early because of failing health.  What if the Labour Conference next week is so rebellious, that more follow Charles Clarke and openly criticise Brown, that Brown either quits for the Party of the men in grey coats knock at the doors of Number 10.  The smiling Alan Johnson, the most likely benefactor of Brown going, would enjoy a media bounce and chance to change the Party’s policies, say he is listening to the Public, then the subsequent 3 month honeymoon period, could make it tougher for the Conservatives to achieve the thumping majority we all crave for, (if a snap election had been called to correspond with the honeymoon period).

So what is the clear blue water?  What differentiates us from the other parties?  Well several cards are ours to play.  Core issues like Europe, immigration and taxation are natural Conservative areas.  These are currently on the back burner.  Unplayed winning hands.  Why are they not being played some will ask?

The answer is that polls show that the biggest pool of undecided voters lay in the centre ground.  Lib Dem supporters are volatile.  They are feeling ‘warm and fuzzy’ towards Conservatives.  Given our core supporters want / demand change away from this dreadful Socialist Government, we can bank on their support.  Their votes are in the bank, (however much they want a real swing to the right).  So naturally, as we saw Eric Pickles do last week, the Party seeks to attract Lib Dem voters by playing smooth, sensual, alluring tunes to their supporters to dance to.  Pickles won’t play the Europe card now, as Clegg himself identifies, Lib Dems and Conservatives have different visions of Europe.  Lib Dems love the European Superstate.  Hence, keep Europe off the table.  Discussing Europe will make us less appealing to Lib Dem floaters.  Whilst the Party can, it advisably follows the strategy of winning and building upon core support and keeping away from controversial issues that could be divisive.  No need to rock the boat in the delicate run up to the election.

But….here comes the but….if this Government start to reduce the clear blue water, starts rising in the polls, voters getting more confused at who offers what…..no doubt the European question, Immigration and Tax will raise their head again.  But only if and when the Party need to differentiate itself.  Until that point, the controversial issues will lie sleeping…….

Yesterday, at a rallying speech, Eric Pickles proclaimed that the Conservatives were the true home of Liberal Democracy.  It was another masterstroke on the road to Pickles electoral strategy to secure David Cameron the keys to No.10

With Labour on the ropes, plunging personal popularity for Gordon Brown, the Conservatives needed to start to turn their guns on the Liberal Democrats, on the eve of their Conference.  Over the past few days the temperature has been bubbling up around the Lib Dems.  Reports are surfacing that the Labour Party have been making discreet enquiries as to whether the Liberal Democrats would be happy to support the Labour Party in a Coalition government in the result of a Hung parliament.  The last desperate acts of a dying Government.

Of course, Pickles wanted to strike and ensure that Liberal Demorat voters, who felt mightily disenchanted with this news, realised that they have a home with the Conservative Party.  Genius.  Right on cue, Pickles paraded James Keeley, Lib Dems PPC in Skipton & Ripon, a defector to the Tories to reinforce his message.  Keeley is the ninth LibDem PPC to quit the LibDems forthe Tories in the last couple of years, along with one MEP and more than 50 councillors.  becoming a trend….and a great message to hammer home just on the eve of the Lib Dems Conference.

I was fortunate to attend Eric’s speech at Broadway House.  Eric Pickles is a man larger than life.  His persona lights a room on entry.  He was in fine form yesterday.  Addressing the audience as ‘chums’ , he ensured that he spend time meeting those from the audience who wanted to bend his ear.  His speech was typical Pickles.  As ever he left plenty of time for audience Q&A.  I asked him a question: ‘Why is Gordon Brown running scared of a Sky News Leaders Debate’?  His reply focused of course on Brown’s record and the astounding level of debt.  But Pickles made us all laugh when he stated that he thinks Brown has no option but to accept ’and I wont miss this debate for the world.  I will buy a bucket of pop corn and enjoy the entertainment’!  He is a jolly man who inspires those around him, but equally he can be a bloody tough customer.  He is perfect for the role of Tory Chairman. 

Looking back  at the history of Conservative Party Chairman, some great people have held the office.  Who is the Greatest Party Chairman is open to debate.  Those most regularly attributed as top performers in the role include:  Arthur Steel-Maitland, who radically restructured the Party following the thumping electoral defeats of 1906 and 1910, hence creating, in many ways, the foundations of the modern Conservative Party; Frederick Marquis, (Lord Woolton), Party Chairman from 1946-1955, again reorganising the Conservative Party after Churchill’s defeat in 1945; Peter Thorneycroft, Party Chairman from 1975-1981, creating the formidable Party Machinery that saw Margaret Thatcher sweep to a historic victory in 1979.  Thorneycroft came to be known as the ‘Rolls Royce’ of political campaigning; the 3 names mentioned thus far were known for their reforming of the Party machine and setting up future electoral success for the Party, however, other Chairman like Norman Tebbit, Cecil Parkinson and Chris Patten, helped to deliver strong electoral success and results that many could not predict the scale. 

Turning to Eric Pickles, he has been extremely influential in turning round the Party machinery and hence electoral fortunes.  Candidate selection today, after a series of reforms is so much more professional than years back.  Candidates are now professionally assessed via Parliamentary Assessment Boards.  The move towards open primaries eg Totnes again shows that the Party Machinery is moving in the right direction.

Is Pickles the finest Conservative Party Chairman in history?  He may well be……but only if he delivers a strong electoral victory next year.  He has been as reforming of the Party and its machinery as Steel-Maitland, Lord Woolton or indeed Peter Thorneycroft.  That in itself is a big tribute.  But like these names and the likes of Tebbit, Parkinson or Patten, he next has to deliver that electoral success for the Party.  And it looks like he will.

Party Conference is a crucial test for Eric next month.  He needs to ensure the Conference acts as a springboard for the Conservatives leap to Power.  Delegates will be in positive mood.  Pickles has to ensure delegates appear confident but not arrogant and certainly not taking anything for granted.  Triumphalism is the biggest of electoral turn offs…and Pickles knows that.  But we expect the Chairman to deliver nothing less than a tub thumping speech that rallies the party faithful and inspires.

Deliver the keys to Number 10 to Cameron next year and job done for Pickles.  That will certainly place him in history as one of the best Conservative Party Chairman..if not THE best.  But that’s a matter for your own subjectivity!

For those that missed Eric’s speech yesterday……….

Text of the Speech, provided by CCHQ, of Eric Pickles Address at Broadway house, 18th september 12.00pm.

John Prescott has just posted this image for his Facebook fans.  It is a response to Eric Pickles Tory T-Shirt Competition.    As you can see it features Iain Dale, (looking trim and tanned there Iain!), with the t-shirt slogan, ‘I’m with Stupid’, with a road sign arrow pointing up at Iain’s face.

This really demonstrates to me that we are in for one hell of a negative campaign from Labour.  This is a former Deputy Prime Minister delving into the gutter to gain cheap laughs by rude,  juventile attacks on a much loved blogger.  This was a personal attack and offensive to modern politics. 

Prescott should be shamed at such smear tactics.

Even one of his supporters, wrote on Prescott’s Facebook page:  James Delargy:  ‘JP – it’s funny – but childish and negative! Go forth should be a positive debate … look up my surname you’ll see my family of MPs and councillors are as red as red can be! Mud slinging isn’t the answer to getting votes, mate! Remember the Tory’s devil eyes campaign? That disgusted me beyond words – please stick to what you’re going to do and leave the infantile stuff to the others’!

Iain, if you are reading this, at least that Prescott sees you as a threat.

McBride and Draper may be gone but the principles of smear and gutter politics remain in the veins of the Labour Leadership and grandees.  Disgusting!

Very impressive profile of Samantha Cameron today in the Daily Telegraph. 

Words that will strike a chord with everyone across the nation:  Samantha ‘won’t be another Cherie’.  Cue jubilant celebrations.

Samantha is a successful businesswoman of her own right.  A talented creative director of Smythson, she will bring much needed style, compassion, intelligence and family values to No.10, should the Conservatives win the next election.

Just as Michelle Obama has captured the hearts of the American people, Samantha will surely do the same with the British nation.

Is Gordon Brown running scared?  Is he frit?  What’s he got to lose by agreeing in principle to Sky News Leaders Election Debate?  Clearly he is troubled by facing the nation and the cameras against Cameron.

His only reply to Sky is that he will consider it when we head into the election campaign.  News to you Gordon….the campaign has started.  The election gun has been fired.  These Party Conferences signal the last chance to rally the troops before the fight starts in earnest.

Gordon’s lack of ability to state his mind is very concerning.  First up did he support Megrahi’s release?  Answer:  He found the scenes of the Libyans celebrating his release disturbing.  No comment on the release.  Next up the Sky Leaders debate.  No answer…yes/no!  What is the point of having a Leader of the Country if he sits on the fence and will not commit an opinion or view?  That’s the definition of a lack of leadership.

Credit to David Cameron for accepting, (indeed championing this cause).  He has the most to lose from such a debate.  Gordon has the most to gain as he is so far behind in the polls, with a demoralised Party, this could be his best option.  But he knows that his drab, monotone dulcet tones will not come across well against a slick, exciting, passionate, inspiring David Cameron.  I bet Mandolsen would relish the chance!

Credit as well to Nick Clegg for accepting…..that just leaves one empty seat.

Just as Have I Got News For You, empty chaired Neil Hattersley and placed a tub of lard in his place, Sky News can empthy chair Brown and replace with a plate of yellow jelly…..probably made of tougher stuff than Gordon!

Great work by Sky.  They trumped the BBC and started this initiative.  I hope it comes off for them.

If you have not done so yet, click on the link below and sign up to Sky’s Online Petition to stage a televised Leaders Election Debate/s.