Much is being made of the Conservatives current polling figures.  Is this a trend?  Is Labour closing the gap?  Has Cameron failed to ‘seal the deal’ with the electorate?  Is Ashcroft right that polls don’t matter because it’s the key swing in a handful of marginal’s that will win this election, (hence the pouring of time & resource into key marginal’s)? 

Of course, who is right we will see…..

In the blog article below, advice given was that the Tories should really start speaking on a handful of key ‘safe’ Tory issues including:  tax cuts, law & order, immigration, Europe.

BUT….What is critical is that the Conservatives need to focus on painting a picture, full of colour & warmth, of the world they want to take us to…..when we are past all the pain…….

Now that may strange and an overly fluffy statement.  But it’s critical for the Conservative strategists to grasp this nettle. 

The focus on ‘Austerity’ and the fact that Britain is broken, the economy a shambles, a debt that is crippling is now well understood by the British public.  George Osborne has been courageous in his ‘sound’ statements on public finances and how he will slash the public debt within four years and that the situation is that dire, he will implement an emergency budget within 50 days of taking office.

Now, October Conference time this message resonated with the mass electorate….and it still does resonate…..but now more so with the financial markets and top economists.  But economists don’t win elections.  It’s the people on the doorstop that matter and push come to shove they may be fearing the prospect of spending cuts, (many of which they don’t know), and potential taxes going up.  This is going to be a fertile area for Labour to exploit…and yes…play on people’s fears in the coming campaign.  Already literature has been circulated saying the Tories will double business rates in certain areas, or close hospital wards as part of its cuts program.  All lies….but Labour will certainly press home any fear for gain of an advantage.

This Government is adopting the stance of an alcoholic.  They have an addiction, (spending tax payers cash…and future cash like there’s no tomorrow).  But like any alcoholic they can’t admit to the problem.  Worse still they don’t want any help in solving their addiction.  The idea of cold turkey is something that is tough to sell to an alcoholic.  Hence the same with tough economic measures.  People fear the medicine.  But people also deny the problem affects them.  ‘How does national debt affect me in my council house…bar…it’s other peoples problems not mine mate’!

The British people love the underdog.  They love to believe in the unbelievable.  They support situations in which winning seems the remotest possibility….but sometimes the impossible happens!  They dream the dream and often dreams are better than reality.  Hence why we always believe that we can win every World Cup we enter, despite often not possessing the talent to progress far.  That belief in hope ably demonstrates that the British people hold dear aspiration as key dream.

It is true that the British people have had to listen to months, maybe years now, of gloomy headlines.  Banks collapsing.  Financial markets in turmoil.  Unemployment rising.  Soldiers dying.  Coupled with a freezing cold winter and heaps of snow, the people must now be at the end of their tether.  They need something to look forward to…..not more doom & gloom.

In many ways Labour strategists are seizing on this theme.  ‘Conservatives talk down Britain’!  ‘Labour does not share Conservative Pessimism’.  ‘Conservatives aim to slash spending and kill the recovery off’.  ‘Inheritance tax cuts for the rich’.  All very familiar slogans coming from the Labour Leadership.

Now, what the Conservatives have to remember is that the current British psyche is a debt culture, (thanks to 13 years of Socialism).  Spend today, pay off tomorrow……but tomorrow never comes.  Debt increases.  Hence why the British have one of the highest personal debt ratios in the G20.  Our people spend what they cannot afford but in the knowledge they can get more credit cards, consolidate etc and put off dealing with their debt.  Hence, in their own minds they ask, ‘Why pay off the debt today, why not leave until tomorrow’. 

What is ‘right’ and what is popular are two different things, especially when it comes to macroeconomic management.

As we head into Spring.  The weather gets warmer.  Sunny weather, sunny outlook!  Nights grow less dark.  People need to again feel optimistic.  To believe in something.  Believe in better times.  The World Cup approaches.  Optimism abounds.

Hence, why the Conservatives campaign must now focus on Aspiration not Austerity.

When people aspire to something better, they work harder….they have a motivation, an inspiration….an aspiration.

That is the ‘promised land’.  The dream of a better tomorrow.

This is the vivid, bright picture that Cameron must now paint in the hearts and minds of the British electorate.

The people are ready to be inspired.  They are listening. 

What will Cameron’s Britain look like in 5 years.  In ten?  What’s the journey?  How will people’s lives be better?

As Conservatives we all know these answers.  But does the mainstream electorate?  Have we articulated our vision enough?  I would say we have a lot more to do.  Turning our campaign into a beacon of hope for all.

Thatcher articulated a dream.  She enthused people with policies of wider home ownership, reduction of the state, privatisation, reduced taxation, Union power in check, strong law & order and of course a sound defence and leading voice on the international stage. 

The current Conservative election campaign is focused on : ‘Year for Change’?  Yes we need change.  But is that enough aspiration for people?  Change…to what is asked by the media and the electorate if polls are to be believed.

Perhaps Conservatives need a new slogan?  How about capturing the present and looking to the future.  ‘Rebuilding Britain for a better tomorrow’.

Labour won in 1997 with the slogan:  ‘Britain deserves better’.  Same principle.  Obama’s was ‘Change we can believe in’. 

Come on DC.  Aspiration not austerity.  It’s the natural next stage to your campaign for the keys to Number 10. 

Much debate in the media about whether the Conservative campaign is faltering.  Why have opinion poll leads halved over recent weeks newspaper headlines scream, especially given the unpopularity of Brown, (even his own aides can’t stand him) and the disastrous effects of this Government’s policies.  Whilst opinion polls go up and down, and there is no need to panic, there is no harm in some friendly advice on how the campaign can sharpen up.  Interesting that extremely few Conservative bloggers are offering advice, in fear no doubt of being seen as disloyal or rocking the boat.  Loyalty is helping the Party not remaining mute!  We all want Cameron in Number 10 in a matter of weeks!  He has to be for the sake of the British people and the future health of our nation: economically, socially, politically.  Another 5 years of Labour would tear us apart.  The consequences are unimaginable.

What is clear is that a resonating theme is that voters don’t quite understand what Conservatives stand for.  They like ‘that nice man David Cameron’.  They maybe don’t get what we stand for in a succinct and simple way.  And yes, we need to articulate our purpose and message.  Labour have defined their campaign under ‘a future fair for all’.  Conservatives have yet to encapsulate those inspirational catch all messages.  Yes, we are not Labour, but can the electorate understand the key differences about what Conservatives bring to the table?  Of course, much will come out in the wash of an election campaign and no doubt there is an element of holding back and building momentum up to the point of a crescendo but what is clear is that the campaign needs .  The question is, will a campaign based on ‘we are NOT Labour’ enough?  There comes the killer question.  Governments lose elections, not Oppositions win them.  Hence how much does an Opposition have to say……?

Question is……..is the best strategy to play safe, appeal to the centre & centre left or is it worth taking some risks, being bold on policy, ensuring there is clear blue water for Conservatives to be fully understood?  Based on a sample of doorstop canvassing, it is clear that turnout could be incredibly low.  People feel disenfranchised with politics and the expenses scandal has shattered trust in our political system.  Whichever Party can mobilise their support in a low turnout election will win.  Sounds simple, but things go deeper than that.

Much is made of the strategy to portray Cameron as an ‘Heir to Blair’.  In many ways this is the battle to seize the centre ground, where the largest pool of voters allegedly resides.  Or does it?  The theory goes that the ‘Blair voters’ that helped Blair win consecutive elections are alive and well and up for attracting to modern Conservatism.  But in many ways, lets also remember that those electors who helped win Margaret Thatcher her election victories are alive and well and it was many of them that transitioned to helping Blair win his elections as they grew disenfranchised with Major’s Conservatives.

In 2010, what must be recognised the ‘Blair’ brand is damaged goods.  Blair may be a great orator and can still charm with his undeniable charisma but the ‘Blair brand’ is now tarnished goods.  A hollow man than smiles nicely is still a hollow man.

Just as Labour had to redefine itself after crushing Tory victories and gloss its socialism as the super sexy ’New Labour’, the Tories have moved to the Left to seize back the Blair Labour vote.

But is this the right strategy?

What is clear on the doorstep is there are a number of key areas that are causing people concern.  Those of the economy, (obviously), but also issues like immigration, defence, law & order and Europe.  Issues that have always been traditionally strong Conservative issues.  But in seeking to seize the centre ground and to pacify all, have we now diminished the key issues and closed the clear blue water in the eyes of the electorate?

Let’s look at each of these issues.  But let’s deal with them simply, exactly as the person on the street sees them.

Immigration

The person on the street feels that immigration is out of control.  That immigrants are coming from all areas of the world, especially Europe, (eg Poland).  There is a fear that population growth will harm the economy.  Too many people in the population overcrowds the health service, larger class sizes, means more competition for jobs in a recession and hence greater unemployment, more benefits being paid, more crowding on public transport, more building of houses on the green belt, greater pollution etc.  All economic issues, some with social ramifications.  Not racial issues as the BNP would state, but economic issues. 

Other issues amplify immigration worries.  Reports that terrorists from Afghanistan and Pakistan are gaining access to the UK under bogus education visas, only adds to the fear and loathing felt by some of the electorate on this issue.  Hence the BNP play and amplify this issue and wrongly present themselves as the saviour.  Interestingly, it is in the Labour heartlands and some of the poorest constituencies that BNP do best.

Conservatives have traditionally been the Party to take a strong line on immigration.  Little is mentioned today, maybe in fear of alienating voters.  But this policy area is key to the electorate and it’s how it is positioned.  In a tough recession, with people losing jobs, the British people understand if there has to be a tighter immigration policy, a strengthening of points entry.  A tightening of education visas.  Immigration is not an extremist issue, just a logical extension of what the country can afford to sustain and help empower.  Let’s hope that this tougher message is part of Cameron’s election battle strategy. 

Law & Order

The voter on the doorstop is frustrated about the inability of police to stem violence in society.  Not the fault of the police, the fault of the tide of bureaucracy the police are drowning under as they spend more time filing reports and seeking to increase budgets via speeding fines.  People sit scared in their houses as young hoodies roam the streets.  Knife crime escalates.  Judges seem perceptibly weaker in their sentencing and incarceration of violent thugs, that the rule of law starts to mean less to all.  Life sentences no longer meaning life sentences.  Prison life seemingly easy as inmates play on videogames and text their mates on the outside with smuggled in mobiles.  Headlines scream out that those defending their property from a violent intruder, get tougher consequences for standing up to a thug…..than the thug!

These are all things that led people to traditionally trust Conservatives on Law & Order.  Conservatives were traditionally seen as tougher on crime…and to coin a phrase, tougher on the causes of crime.  Do people feel Conservatives own this policy area as  naturally today?  Is law & order high enough on the current political agenda?  Do people instantly recognise Chris Grayling?  Not as much as they should do.  Hence, again, a suggestion to talk tougher on law & order as people resonate with this issue.

Europe

Ah Europe.  The policy area touted as always splitting the Party down the middle  The issue to avoid talking about at all costs.  UKIP has been quietly making inroads into some constituencies exploiting Euro fears.  Traditionally the Conservatives have been seen as a Party that relishes the free trade aspects of Europe but none of the political & monetary Union shenanigans that is on the agenda today.  The voter on the doorstep understands that Europe can bring benefits. Cooperation over foreign & defence policy for example.  Free trade.  But they see more and more the bureaucracy and meaningless interventions in everyday life by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels or a clueless European Parliament made up of zealous federalists, at home feasting on the gravy train. 

There’s the point.  Europe has become associated in the hearts and minds of the British people as a major threat to freedom and enterprise.  Intervening in everyday life which has nothing to do with them.  We can see that the federalist dream of a single currency is killing some nations, eg Greece…. and now, to prevent the single currency crashing, Greece is having to be bailed out…followed by Ireland, followed by….etc.  If this recession has taught us one thing is that had we been in the single currency, many more jobs would have been lost, interest rates would have been higher and the economy now would be even more of a train wreck than it was.  Europe is a mess.  The people see that.  Conservatives need to associate ourselves with that public mood.

So, the people want their say on Europe.  They want to be self governed. A tougher line from Conservatives would actually be beneficial as it opens up clear blue water with Labour and Lib Dems. Let’s be bold not fearful of the big European debate.

The Economy

Pure and simple, people understand that you can’t spend what you don’t have.  Spending cuts have to be deep and swift to stabilise the economy and protect our ‘AAA’ credit rating.  So let’s name cuts.  Those many hundreds of Quangos have to go.  The Public Sector has to be cut.  Yes, cuts in health service BUT people understand cutting managers and not nurses or doctors.  Let’s be bold.  A clear and credible plan to reduce national debt over 5 years.

And yes…..as argued before on this blog, get back to cutting income tax & corporation tax at the next budget.  Revenues do rise when tax is cut.  Empirically proven in the mid 80’s recession in the Government’s own red books.  The incentive and entrepreneurship that we need will start to flourish and trickle down.  Inward investment will be attracted.  Those millionaires hiding in tax havens will start to return.  The UK will be seen as a country to invest in again.

Again, tax cuts benefit all.  Yes of course those on higher incomes benefit most.  But who are the ones that have the money to invest, create new companies, create jobs and hence pump more money into the economy.  In the UK we have become too preoccupied for how we protect the poor and generate benefits and support networks for them, then we have in stimulating enterprise…the very things that benefit more people in society.  A boisterous private sector brings benefits that far outweighs a bloated public sector.  And besides where is the public sector funded from…..private sector cash, including those bankers that we so readily bash, but happily visit hospitals their wealth has paid for. 

And yes, let’s reinforce our privatisation beliefs.  There are still parts of the state that can be best served in the private sector, (and shock horror, this includes parts of the NHS & education).  With the money earned from the sale of state assets, public sector debt can be repaid quickly and of course, cutting tax can go hand in hand.

Yes, this requires a mindset change.  The British public started down that route in the Thatcher years but the journey was curtailed as Labour stole the emperors clothes and socialism, more state control, higher taxes, penalising success, union militancy, all crept back in, helped by European legislation and diktats!

Clear Blue Water

So, that brings us back to Conservatives positioning in the middle ground and utilising ‘Heir to Blair’ metaphors.  Is it enough?  Will people vote with their hearts and minds for Conservatives?  Will they stick with the devil they know in Gordon Brown?

One thing is that values, principles and ideologies help the British people understand where a Party is coming from.  Do people understand what the current Conservatives stand for?  Let’s help steer them more clearly & articulately.

Maybe, just maybe, to strengthen the poll gap, to widen clear blue water, the trump cards should be seen as positives, vote winners and a tougher line on immigration, law & order, Europe and the economy will bring home those Blairite voters, (former Thatcher voters many millions of them).

So back to those core simple understandable issues, what do Conservatives represent…..we are

 -              The Party of Enterprise & tax cuts to stimulate wealth for all

-              Committed to reducing the size of the state and leaving individuals to make their own decisions

-              Passionate believers in Privatisation and transferring more state assets to the private sector

-              The Party that is tough on crime and the causes of crime.  Tough sentences.  Tough prisons.  Making the criminal think twice & fearful at the punish they would incur.

-              The Party that is tough on immigration and tightening border control

-              The Party that is for European free trade & enterprise BUT the Party that believes decisions should be taken by Westminster not Brussels.  Powers to be reclaimed back from Europe.

Sounds like a recipe for electoral success!!!!         

Conference seems a long time ago.  I remember travelling home on the train sitting next to David Willets and Cheryl Gillian, full of optimism.  A great Conference.  Never underestimating the task ahead, key was that everything was pointing in the right direction.  George Osborne had just enjoyed the Conference of his life and delivered a speech which tackled the big issues and underlined the economic competence of the Conservatives.  David Cameron had delivered a barn storming speech which left all with hope, (yes that great word that Obama anchors campaigns around), that we were en route to a better future.  This was off the back of a dreadful Labour Conference that saw a less than half empty hall wearily trudge through a week of depression, until Lord Mandelson rallied their spirits, (and his future career prospects), with throws of inspiring rhetoric for the Labour faithful to finally have a sliver of hope themselves.

Things are bleak for this Government.  Indeed, for the country.

And yet…..opinion polls are throwing up mixed results.  Trending is that Conservatives are not dominating as much as we should be.  Local council by election results, are ‘disappointing’,(in the words of ConservativeHome’s Jonathan Isaby.  Iain Dale also asks the question why by-election results are not going our way).  Yes, there are always localised reasons at play at by-election results, and their impact can never be dismissed.  But we are not dominating.  Opinion polls are patchy and not as inspiring as the recent 17% lead polls.  Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome has alluded to a drop in Conservatives support post Lisbon Treaty ‘U-Turn’.  Many seem to agree with that sentiment on that blog site.  But there is more to it than Europe.

What is fundamentally true is that the Conservatives have so much ammunition at their disposal, the question why polls are not moving stronger in our favour is a valid one to ask!

Consider what’s happening around us…..

  -           The economy.  First into recession, last out.  And the deepest recession in Europe.  We hurtle catastrophically towards a £1 trillion debt that our children will still be paying off in years to come. Brown has got away with the biggest lie in Political history.  That lie?  That debt has been built up because Brown states he was saving the UK from recession, (actually he would say saving the world from recession but scrub that).  That’s like Tiger Woods saying he had 10 birdies in a round and his wife believing he was talking about Golf!   Brown was building debt way before this recession even started.  In the good times he was spending like a manic gambler at the roulette table, hoping the ball will end on black.  In the words of the IMF:  ‘Imbalances and balance sheet strains had emerged even before the recent global shocks triggered a sharp decline in economic activity’.  ie we were heading into recession and spending too heavily BEFORE the Global shocks took place. 

 -           Unemployment heads towards 3 million, (that’s by official figures), unofficially claims of 6 million seem more accurate.  That’s people’s lives wrecked, on hold, dignity stripped.  Benefits and dependency culture set in.

 -           Class War.  Entrepreneurs discouraged.  Bankers bashed.  Top talent packing their bags to work abroad as UK thumps those very people who can bring us out of slump, create jobs for others and generate tax revenues, pummelled to the ground, with more ferocity than an uppercut from Mike Tyson in his prime, by punitive tax rates.  50% for top earners.  40% threshold frozen.  More on NI.  VAT back up 2.5%.  Penalties on companies that reward bankers who make money, (the very people we need to save and keep in this country, not incentivise to work and benefit New York’s Stock Exchange). 

 -           The Unions start to flex their muscles.  Just as the nation was free from the strangulation and choking hold of the Unions, like in ‘The Shining’ ‘They’re back’!  Strikes on the increase, Union militancy.  Bob Crow back on the telly chanting his monotone messages like a failed XFactor auditionee.  The Post Office, on the brink of collapse, wont modernise, cancerously pumping money into its bottomless pension pit, faced by striking members, and growing competition.  The RMT, getting the Tube drivers out on strike, more often than we enjoy a boiling hot summers day that we can take off our shirts and bathe!  And that comes before the pending winter of discontent as Unions rally against Darling’s 1% pay rise limit for public sector workers.  Who will be out striking first?  Rush down Ladbroke’s and place your bet tonight. 

 -           Our population continues on its inextricable path towards 70 million.  Immigration remains unchecked.  Asylum seekers lost amongst the population.  Our open borders burden the UK putting huge strain on over stretched public services, with the NHS groaning under the weight, school classes getting bigger, new houses being built on green belt, predicted power shortages for the years ahead as we don’t have the power stations to support our surging nation, public transport wheezing and roads at a standstill. 

 -           We are in the midst of a deeply unpopular war.  Over 200 brave soldiers have been returned home in a coffin.  Debates over strategy have been rife.  More concerning than that, real questions over the equipment troops are issued with and the lack of protection eg helicopters, have undermined this Government.  There could not be a more inept and ‘uncaring’ Defence Minister in Bob Ainsworth.

 -           The Iraq enquiry is rapidly tarnishing the reputation of ‘Labour’s greatest Leader’, Tony Blair.  We hear daily about the lack of credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction and the inability of Saddam Hussein’s regime to produce workable ones.  Coded language comes from the Iraq Enquiry that George W Bush wanted a hard line and pushed Blair into it.  Bliar indeed.

 -           A House of Commons with politicians so morally corrupt that make even Ronnie Biggs look respectable.  Yes, you will retort that Conservative politicians have been just as bad.  BUT the Government have been poor in taking any lead in cleaning up this sh*tstorm of a mess.  Cameron, has pushed Brown all the way.  Even this week we hear of Prime Minister Brown repaying £500 for painting a shed!

 -           Europe.  The continued enslavery of the British people continues to the faceless unelected bureaucrats of Europe.  Now we have the dreaded Lisbon Treaty with the instantly forgettable, but powerful. President of the European Union, (Herman Van Rompuy), and Foreign Minister, Cathy Ashton, (a Brit who was as vocal in British politics as Sooty was to Children’s TV!).  Blair and Brown promised a referendum for the British people but it never ever emerged.  Yes, Cameron took some hammering on his so called U-turn but a referendum on a Treaty in force is daft.  Another referendum on whether we have given too much power away, hell yes.  The blame for our European ills lay firmly at Brown’s door.

-           Education, Education, Education.  Blair’s famous pledge that education was his first, second and third priority.  A memorable catch phrase that was almost Turette’s by nature, proved to be as reliable as Amy Whinehouse sticking to drinking coke in a bar all night !   Education failures rack up.  50,000 A-level students miss out on a place at university.  This year 52,000 more people applied to University but only 13,000 extra places were made available.  The number of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) has leapt by more than 100,000 in the past year.  Government statistics show there are now almost 960,000 16- to 24-year-old Neets in England, more than 230,000 of whom are aged between 16 and 18.  Oh and the flagship policy, SAT’s…teachers aim to boycott them next year!

-           A big brother state that worms its way into every aspect of our lives.  Want to help out at your local school?  Drive friends Children to their Cubs or Girl Guides?  Got to be checked on the anti paedophile register first.

Quite literally I could go on all night listing failure after failure after failure.

Fertile ground to be in Opposition.  Too much to choose from.  Should be Christmas all year round.

Opinion polls should be absolutely hammering Labour for their incompetence.  Criminal incompetence.  But they aren’t.

Some recent polls have put the difference between Conservatives to 10% difference.  Labour commanding a mid – late 20’s position.

Who the hell is being polled?  Who is supporting this shower?

As we head towards an election, the most important in many a lifetime, Conservatives need to open up the gap and generate clear blue water.  This is the ‘Schumacher’ moment when we need to be so far ahead of the field, we need to be lapping not only the back markers but coming up to lap the entire field.  Schumacher never slowed up.  He pummelled his fellow drivers into the ground.  As we must do now.

So what is wrong?

Why are we not opening up more of a gap?

Many commentators say that Conservatives Agenda is not yet bought by the British people.  Voters don’t quite trust us as yet.  They don’t understand what we stand for.  They like nice Mr Cameron but don’t have a feel for what he would do.

Much of this can be brought out in the wash in an election campaign say Conservative campaign team leaders.  Maybe…in them we have to trust!  We are not privy to the campaign they intend to use to convince the people.

But one suggestion I would impart onto David, Eric, George & William is that the key word around the campaigns table must be emotion.  Emotion is what politics lacks.  Emotion means getting personal.  It means relating to the ordinary person in the street.  Emotion creates and bonds loyalty and trust.

Politics today is too focused on debating statistics or policies.  As we all fight the election in the middle ground, choices get confused, differences misunderstood by the public, whose political antenna is not as attuned as Westminster politicians think.  I say we all fight in the middle, the key word is that all parties want to be perceived as in the middle, to attract the largest number of voters.  Matters not that policies may be more left or right wing, the centre is where we all will fight, (rightly or wrongly in your opinion).

Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit had their finger on the pulse of the people.  They spoke in terms that people understood.  They personalised and humanised issues that people could relate to.  Politicians are forgetting that, just as any film director tries to do, it is about getting someone to believe in what they see.  Emotion is created by personalising issues.  Remember when Margaret Thatcher turned complex economic issues into the language that people understood.  On spending she equated the state to the family.  We cannot spend what we cannot afford.  When we are at home, if we cannot afford it, we save and then we can afford it, we buy it.  Simple language but the people loved it.  The housewife spoke!  Powerful and it resonated.  More so that today’s debate which quotes pure stats and percentages that Joe public does not understand…or will try to understand as they worry whether Joe, Stacey or Olly will win the XFactor!

Unemployment is not about a statistic of 3 million people it is about Mr Jones, who worked all his life, bought his own council house, can’t find work, wife fallen ill, daughter can’t afford University, a man depressed, lost his dignity but wants better for his family…and is fighting to earn money.  In him we respect and want to see him do well.

The health service is not about dirty corridors, increases in disease, rising cancer death rates, it is about Mrs Hughes, a mother who has a family of 3 beautiful daughters, husband died at war, who is diagnosed with cancer and facing life’s hardest choices.  How do we help her and her daughters.

Afghanistan is so more more than a statistic 200 dead, it is about John, a brave soldier on the front line who died by roadside ambush, a wife pregnant with his unborn daughter, a family torn apart.  How we help that family of a man who gave the ultimate sacrifice for all of us.

Public debt is not about a figure of trillion pounds.  It is about Mary, who is struggling to pay her mortgage, close to repossession, working for a company that is struggling to get credit, that is laying off workers, (her friends).

Violent crime is not about a percentage.  It is about 8 year old Sarah, whose father went to pick up a takeaway for the family, but never came home as youths taunted him, attacked him and used a knife in a savage unprovoked attack.

David Cameron is a thoroughly decent man.  Post the tragic death of Ivan the public saw a different side to the Politician.  They related to him.  A family man.  A bereaving dad.  A loving husband.  And they could associate with that.  We see less of the personal side of David of late.  That loving family man, the dad, the husband, has been less visible.   The emotion of the man not emanating out.

Some may shout this down.

But just sit and watch ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ or ‘The X Factor’.  Watch how contestant’s are introduced.  How emotion is used to get that tear welling up in your eye.  Get that lump in your throat.  Make you leap our your chair and vote for them because, for that moment in time, ‘they’ matter to you more than anything else.  You support them.  You don’t care paying a phone vote because you feel better in yourself for supporting them.  You feel you are making a difference.  We can all point to stories used on shows like this.  The daughter who was told by her dad to audition for Britain’s Got Talent by a dad, who died suddenly and she is now doing this for him.  Who did not feel emotional.

So, David Cameron, more than anyone, realises the election is not in the bag.  By a long way.  It’s not over until he faces the cameras on election night after Gordon Brown has conceded defeat.

So dangerous waters lie ahead.  Gordon Brown has been getting more confident of late.  The last two PMQ’s have been his strongest for a long time.  Iain Dale even concluded that Brown beat Cameron in one of them.  Unheard of!  The economy will start to turn round in the new year.  Brown must sit by the fire at No.10 with Sarah over a mug of hot chocolate and array of biscuits, (as he can’t decide his favourite), and really laugh.  ‘Sarah, look at how bad a mess everything is and yet look at those polls.  We are only 10% behind!  Even with the state of the UK as it is the Conservatives can’t kill us off.  We could still win this Sarah!’…..as she forlornly and adoringly looks into the eye of her ‘hero’! 

And things can change in politics.  The nightmare scenario still exists.  What if Gordon Brown steps down early next year?  A new Labour Leader emerges, be it Johnson, Miliband, Purnell or Mandelson, and starts to distance themselves from Brown’s policies, as the economy picks up and as they benefit from a honeymoon period in the polls, that any new leader always does.

Could Labour win the next election.  Yes.  The public may do a 1992 and shock and keep an ‘unpopular’ Government in.  Better the devil you know.  ‘Oh well things are getting better let’s stick with Labour’.

Worst case, as Ken Clarke would say, a hung Parliament.  The best of no worlds.

Election loss.  Conservatives would tear themselves apart.  Many keeping their lips sealed now for Party Unity would feel empowered to state their case.  Something none of us ever wants to see ever again.

So let’s see more spark to our Opposition.  Let’s see our front bench hammering the Government ever harder.  Let’s see emotion, personalisation and humanisation used to bring issues closer to the public, so they understand what really is going on.

We cannot afford, as a Great Nation, to see Labour in again.

In a recent comment to Scott Newton’s guest blog, “Why Cutting Income Tax, Cutting Red Tape and Deregulating Business is essential for the UK’s Future.” I promised to write more on UK Tax Policy.

I must add that these are my personal observations and are not intended to upset anyone…

…Including Scott who’s piece is right on the mark. (Well done Scott!)

For the past 4 years my company (www.ditg.org.uk) has been funded by the worlds largest ICT brands to establish a replacement for the Government’s Home Computing Initiative (HCI).

HCI was budget measure implemented by Gordon Brown as a Tax Incentive for employees. Under Section 320 of the Finance Act, employees could acquire up to £2500 worth computer equipment from their employer Income Tax exempt. In turn, employers enjoyed an exemption on Class 1A National Insurance on the amounts salary sacrificed by the employee.

This created an industry worth £450 Million to the UK and about 2500 related employment opportunities.

Unfortunately, the exemption was removed in Budget 2006. (It was proving too successful?)

This resulted in one of the longest cross-examinations during the reading for a finance bill in recent times. (Well worth a read on Hanson – see the below link).

The Government cited “abuse” as the reason for removing the benefit and pledged to “refocus efforts on those most in need”. Check out the written evidence taken at the time:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we14.htm

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we08.htm

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we06.htm

YOU MUST READ THIS NEXT ONE, IT IS NOT SPECIFICALLY HCI, BUT IS A GREAT READ.

IT ALSO SHOW THAT INSPITE OF WHAT YOU MAY THINK, WE DO RETAIN A AN OPEN AN UNBVIASED RECORD OF PUBLIC COMMENT AS PART OF UK POLITICS.

IT IS ALSO HILARIOUS:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmtreasy/994/994we07.htm

Just in case you don’t want to click off the blog – here is a taster:

“The rhetoric of “transformation”, “reform”, “investment”, “transparency”, “devolution”, “prudent”, “cautious”, “audited” and “world class” is so indulgent and self-congratulatory that one wonders if some drafters inside the Treasury are parodying ministers.”

Professor David Heald, Comments on Budget 2006

Ouch!

At the time the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats both lobbied against the decision and the recorded debate on Hansard is a fantastic read. It is also a good introduction to political punditry and how Politician’s really debate:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmhansrd/vo060502/debtext/60502-22.htm

(The unanswered question for me was always how you can abuse a taxation system that assesses individual taxation in arrears…but then I am bias and this blog isn’t about HCI!)

So with this background you would think that it would be easy to gain Parliamentary support for a refocused replacement scheme developed over 4 years at a cost to the IT Industry (not the tax payer!) of over £2.6 Million.

Not so…

In practice the differentiation between the Parties on the issue of supporting a tax incentives is in practice not all that large. (Sorry Scott)

ALL Ministers (despite what the expenses scandal suggests) are concerned as to how to pay for any incentive, will it fit with policy…

So why post this blog at all?

Well my personal concern is not about the detail of Tax Policies, nor believe it or not HCI.

My concern is the Conservative approach. Will it win us the election?

Have a look at the following comparison of Labor and Tax summary statements.

John questions whether there is enough clear blue water between Labour & Conservatives on Tax policy……you decide!

Treat yourself and see if you can spot the difference!

Conservatives:

“We will freeze council tax for two years by reducing wasteful spending on advertising and consultancy in central government.”

Labour:

“We are reducing the amount of central prescription so that local authorities and their partners are better able to respond to local needs and demands.”

Conservatives:

“We will introduce a £50bn National Loan Guarantee Scheme to underwrite
bank lending to businesses and get credit flowing again.”

Labour (DirectGov):

“The government is announcing that it will offer capital and asset protection on those assets most affected by the current economic conditions. This will reduce banks’ uncertainty about the value of past investments, so providing them with greater confidence to lend in the future to creditworthy businesses, homeowners and consumers.”

Labour (Policy):

“Working with banks, Labour is providing loan guarantees to businesses to help them get the credit they need.”

Conservatives:

“We will provide tax cuts for new jobs with a £2.6bn package of tax breaks to get people into work, funded by money that would otherwise go on unemployment benefit.”

Labour:

“Extra cash to encourage employers to recruit people without jobs.”

“Stepping up the training and support people need to get back to work.”

Conservatives:

“We will cut the main rate of corporation tax to 25p and the small companies’ rate to 20p, paid for by scrapping complex reliefs and allowances”

Labour:

“Allowing businesses facing difficulties to spread their tax payments on a timetable they can afford.”

Conservatives:

“We will give small and medium-sized businesses a six-month VAT holiday, funded by a 7.5% interest rate on delayed payments.”

Labour:

“We have reduce VAT to 15%”

Conservatives:

“We will cut National Insurance by 1% for six months for firms with fewer than five employees, paid for from the above changes to the company tax regime.”  

Labour:

“When it is affordable, we will re-link the basic state pension to earnings.  We aim to do this by 2012 or by the end of the next parliament at the latest.”

Conservatives:

“We will abolish Stamp Duty for nine out of ten first-time buyers and raise the Inheritance Tax threshold to £1 million. Both of these changes will be funded by a flat-rate charge on non-domiciles.”

Labour:

“Extending the Stamp Duty holiday for properties under £175,000”

“Extra mortgage protection to help families stay in their homes”

“Helping savers by increasing the threshold of Individual Savings Accounts to over £10,000”

Now hopefully some clever contributors will now explain to me the differences in the comments…WAIT, some I can see! (And before you comment, I know that the Conservatives have shown how they will pay for it !!)

But you know it all does kind of sound the same to me…and taxation detail is part of my day job…

…So what hope does the deciding electorate have?

I do sincerely hope the Tory manifesto has some really clear taxation differentiators in it.

Otherwise I might get confused and vote for the wrong Party.

Here is a thought…committing to bring back s320 income tax benefits for computers would be a start.

Hey look, it is my daily bread…      

John Laity…..

I don’t know about you but I am getting bored with the constant references to the Bullingdon Club.  Seems that Labour will refer to it in their election campaign in an attempt to discredit former Bullingdon members David Cameron, Boris Johnson and George Osborne.  Such tired, boring politics wont wash with the British People who care for issues and how their lives will be affected not old University high jinx!

So what is this infamous Bullingdon Club we hear of so much?   Well, it is a socially exclusive student dining club at Oxford University, without any fixed abode, well known for its members’ wealth and destructive drinking nights. Membership is by invitation only, and stupidly expensive for most, given the need to pay for the uniform, dinners and breakages.  The Club’s modus operandi has often been to book a private dining room under an false name, as most restaurateurs are wary of the Club’s reputation for causing considerable drunken damage during the course of the dinners. However, it depends on the character of the membership at the time — which necessarily varies from year to year — whether the famous ‘destruction’ is an intentional act of wanton vandalism or a side-effect of drinking prodigious quantities over a lengthy period of time.  Members are well known to trash a restaurant and then pay cash for damages, plus extra, when leaving.

Labour’s goal is to portray Cameron as elitist.  A toff with a silver spoon in his mouth.  Aloof.  Out of touch with the ordinary man & woman on the street.  The Bullingdon Club is one way to do this, hence the photo of Cameron and Boris in penguin suits, looking arrogant and elitist is like political dynamite to them.  Our future Prime Minister and current Mayor of London in sleek, expensive dinner jackets, (fyi Bullingdon members dress for their annual Club dinner in specially made traditional tailcoats in Oxford blue offset with ivory silk lapel revers, brass monogrammed buttons, a mustard waistcoat, and a sky blue bow tie. There is also a Club tie, which is sky blue striped with ivory. These are all provided by the Oxford branch of court tailors Ede and Ravenscroft. The full uniform costs around £3,500), positioned in strong ‘elitist’ poses, Boris sitting on the step looking straight into the eyes of the camera and David, looking wistfully into the distance.  After this group pose, reports regale the press of a wild night out on the town with damage to an expensive restaurant.  Boris was caught by the Police after smashing a window with a plant pot, (and spent a night in the cells).  No information comes to light of any high jinks that Cameron got up to, (he apparently went home early).  Channel 4 considered it such public interest entertainment that they created and funded a tv version of their antics viewable HERE  (If you want to see the original Bullingdon photos of Cameron, Boris and one with George Osborne, Google Search images of the ‘Bullingdon Club’).

David Cameron (Johnny Sweet), top, second left, and Boris (Christian Brassington) in More 4’s docudrama about their Oxford days

Frankly who gives a damn apart from those people who oppose those who have been priviledged to have generated and passed on wealth to their children.

My defence of the Bullingdon Club comes not because I have been a member, (far from it as I am the classic product of a working class family, moving on up through an average state school).  But neither am I jealous of those who have created or enjoyed wealth.  Consider this.  If you won the lottery today or built a business that was worth millions, would you seek to look after your children’s future, as well as building on your wealth?  In most cases yes you would.  So if you could provide your children the best in education, which is generally what all parents want, where are the best institutions?  Most would say Eton School and of course then Oxford and Cambridge University.  These choices are perceived by many as the ultimate goal for their children’s education.  Yet many feel the need to criticise those who can afford to go there, (whilst hypocritically they would do the same if they had that money).

This silly argument came up on BBC Question Time last week.  Yvette Cooper snapping at the heels of George Osborne.  Quite rightly he retorted, why should he be embarrassed by the success of his father in building a business, employing lots of people and yes, making money, (the whole point of business).  Success it appears breeds contempt.  It breeds jealously.  Yet many crave to be in this position yet condemn others if they cant have it.

Let’s tackle the high jinks that the Bullingdon Club got up to.  Those casting their stones at David, Boris and George should consider that most people have done things they regret in life.  University days, not just at Oxford or Cambridge, see many wild nights, with students, (yes future business leaders, politicians and …. parents), doing things that are unacceptable and they later regret.  That is part of growing up.  Learning through experiences and mistakes you make.   Go to any University town in freshers week and there will be shenanigans that turn your hair grey.  Critics say that this is all a question of a persons core ethics, their ‘character’, ‘their upbringing’, ‘their suitability to hold public office’, hence we should have the right, of a future leader to know everything.  Frankly….silly, childish student day pranks do not matter.  What matters is how a person intends to lead. What will they do for the poorest in society?  How will they create and spread wealth?  Can they create jobs?  How will they improve our schools, our roads, our hospitals, our national defences, our position in the world?  All this matters to people, not whether someone was a member of the Bullingdon Club.  Not whether they smoked canabis at school!  Not if they have got drunk and jumped into a river on freshers week!  If they commiteed a heinous crime, yes we have a right to know.  Did people decide they would not vote for the Mayor because when he was young he was merry and threw a plant pot throw a window?  Of course not.

But it is too much to hope for debates on issues by Labour.  They will use this old brush to try and sweep Cameron away from reaching Downing Street.  It will backfire on them and make them look the childish politicians they are.  And of course, their ‘greatest leader’ of recent times enjoyed himself at University as well. Tony Blair had his wild side……

‘Boys will be boys’….’students will be students’!

As John McCarthy says: ‘An excessive knowledge of Marxism is a sign of a misspent youth’.

A young Tony Blair in his underpants played by actor, Christian Brassington (NB he plays Boris above!)

Wow, what a Conference.  One of the most striking aspects has been the rapid rise of the Charismatic Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, (or BoJo as he has become affectionately known as).  The man’s star is currently shining brighter than a supernova!  Again he fulfilled the role of Conference Darling this week in Manchester.

There can be no doubting his star quality.  Many in the Conference Hall, in the opening session had come in to see the maestro in action.  Boris has that ultimate quality in a politician: likeability.  Before he came on stage, a short video introduced him, highlighting his achievements and then at the end, the familiar thump thump of the EastEnders theme tune boomed into the Conference Hall.  The clip, (also on this site), was shown of Boris meeting and handing his business card to Peggy Mitchell, (Babs Windsor).  The Hall was electric, then the man bounded on stage himself, crumpled suit in place, blonde mop of hair spraying in all directions, to an instant outburst of a spontaneous standing ovation. The audience’s affection for Boris was genuine and heartfelt.

Boris is a natural orator.  He bumbling tones just add to his ‘X-factor’.  When he needs to be he can be eloquent, combined with this he is deeply intelligent but ultimately he understands that to sometimes drive a message home, cripple an opponent and build the excitement in a speech, you need to use humour.  Boris can fulfill the role of Conference Jester very well, but as we know this is sometimes to his detriment and personal brand as a serious politician.  Boris’ political antenna was totally attune to that of the Party faithful.  He wants a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, he wants the abolition of the 50p tax rate, he defended the bankers with panache and exclaimed that it was the bankers money and profits that paid for the public spending boom of Brown, and the hospitals we send our sick and the schools we educate our children in, only benefit from the bankers ability to generate billions of pounds.  He urged “all you banker-bashers out there” to “trust in London”, which he said would lead the country out of recession as it had done in the 1930s. Maybe those bankers aren’t so bad I heard a delegate behind me say. 

‘Cuts’ has been the word of the summer.  Key has been the focus on spending cuts.  Boris changed to to cutting ‘nonsense’.  Boris highlighted a case from last week when it emerged two female officers at the Metropolitan police had been stopped from babysitting each other’s children because they were not registered as childminders. Ofsted warned the women could be prosecuted for being in breach of the Childcare Act. Boris cut to the chase as he proclaimed to Conference: ”If it were up to me I would cut the babysitting monitoring department; I would cut the babysitting monitoring department action day; I would cut the babysitting monitoring department human resources section. “Get rid of this nonsense but don’t cut the investment essential to the UK economy.”

After a speech which lifted the Party faithful, the hall again erupted into a standing ovation.  As quickly as he had come and conquered, he bound of the stage job done, no doubt enjoying the acclamation he had received.

For those that missed it, ITN posted some of the highlights….click below to watch.

Conference speech finished, it was time for Boris to ‘meet the media’.  He pounded from news studio to news studio, journalist to journalist.  Always supportive of Cameron but maintaining the pressure on the leadership on key issues.  Even challenging Osborne to match his spending reductions and efficient use of money in London.  Wherever Boris went, he was pursued by adoring fans and journalists desperate to get him on their news bulletins.  Boris always responded with that natural enthusiasm and blonde mop of scruffy hair flailing in the wind!

Perhaps the best interview of Conference was between the master interviewer Jeremy Paxman and Boris.  This really is a must watch interview.  It is a shame that the BBC has cut some of this as Paxman, his usual sneering self, challenged Boris on the character of David Cameron, his wealth and of course his membership of the now infamous Bullingdon Club.  Boris, turned this questioning on his head and challenged Paxman to reveal his salary.  Repeatedly Boris challenged but Paxman would not relent, (reports place the Paxman salary, of course funded by the British tax payer at between £800k to £1 million…that’s a hefty sum given that the this is 4 times that of the Prime Minister!…up to you if he is worth that…?).  Whilst Boris’ challenge makes some of the final edit, his PR team claim that the whole interview was superb and have challenged the BBC to post the unedited version on iPlayer.  Some of this interview is pure political theatre.  Boris asking Paxman if Newsnight had plunged to the lowest depths when paxman enquired if Cameron had ever thrown a plant pot!  Boris challenges Paxman to get a proper job.  Paxo should stop ‘just’ questioning politicians…….Vintage.  Click below to watch.

Just class.

Boris has been Mayor for over a year now.  He has a lot left to achieve but can point to a number of successes already including freezing council tax, banning alcohol on the tube, devolving more power to local government, opposing a third runway at Heathrow, ousting the ‘hated’ Ian Blair as head of the Met Police,  adding 400 more police on the buses and hence seeing a reduction in violent crime, scrapping the bendy buses and phasing them out, opposing an extension of the congestion charge, the new rent-a-bike scheme.  At Conference he announced he would again freeze the Council Tax next year.  This was Conservatism in action he triumphantly proclaimed.

It was a real pleasure to meet and chat with the man who still has a long way to go in politics.  Boris used to proclaim he wanted to succeed Cameron as Prime Minister, although of late he has stated that being Mayor will be his last big political Job.  Commentators don’t believe him and still see a burning ambition in the man.  Whilst there will not be a vacancy for the Leadership of the Conservative Party for some time, who is to say that after a second term as Mayor, what will be the political situation at that moment of time will be.  Boris, a breath of fresh air in modern politics…keep up the great work BoJo!  A true legend in the making.