Let’s stop beating about the bush.  The situation in Afghanistan is getting very unstable.  It is deteriorating.  As we hear of another British soldier being killed on patrol, we learn that the Taliban, (and by Association Al Qaeda), are back into mass recruiting phase, especially from the bloated prisons in Afghanistan.  Terrorist networks and training are in growth mode….not declining.  Who tells us this…not our own Generals, silenced by our Prime Minister but by Gen Stanley McChrystal, who took over as US Military Commander in May.  he has stated in an in depth report that the US mission in Afghanistan will “likely result in failure” unless troops are increased within a year.

If the USA are worried about failing.  So must we.  Will we be required to send more troops.  How many?  What if we don’t?  Will the Taliban be able to take control again in Afghanistan?  All questions that our politicians must be asking today. 

More than 30,000 extra US troops have been sent to Afghanistan since May – almost doubling the US contingent.  The number of US troops in Afghanistan is already set to rise to 68,000 by the end of the year.  American citizens question this war and strategy as much as UK public.

In his latest assessment, Gen McChrystal is quoted by the Washington Post newspaper as saying: “Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term [next 12 months]… risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.” He warned that “inadequate resources will likely result in failure”. “Additional resources are required,” the general states in the summary of the report. He said that failure to provide adequate resources “risks a longer conflict, greater casualties, higher overall costs, and ultimately, a critical loss of political support”. “Any of these risks, in turn, are likely to result in mission failure.”

What is more fascinating is observations that McChrystal made about how the enemy, far from being on the run, are getting more sophisticated and back into growth mode.

The assessment offers an in depth critique of the failings of the Afghan government, stating that official corruption is as much of a threat as the insurgency to the mission. “The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and ISAF’s own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their government,” McChrystal states.  The result has been a “crisis of confidence among Afghans” . “Further, a perception that our resolve is uncertain makes Afghans reluctant to align with us against the insurgents.”

As a summary, in the report Gen McChrystal:

- Provides new details about the sophisticated nature of the Taliban insurgency

- Criticises Nato forces for focusing more on tackling insurgents than protecting Afghan civilians

- Censures the Afghan government for lack of action on widespread corruption

- Warns that Afghanistan’s prisons have become a sanctuary for active insurgents

This must be a worry to all of us.  Not least to the families and friends of soldiers serving in Afghanistan.  We need to review strategy, equipment, squad numbers.  The enemy are on the move, starting to re-build, recruit new members.  If the purpose of the war is to promote democracy and ensure that we protect our citizens back home, then the strategy is not working.  Turnout at the recent election was low.  Electoral rigging widespread.  Corrupt politicians.  Terrorists back training, growing their numbers, new camps springing up…..time for action Mr Brown.