This has been playing on my mind late at night.  Its implications are far reaching, yet our politicians are not grasping its seriousness.  Even our media are not delving deep into this issue.  The axing of ‘Star Wars’ is a monumental decision by Obama.   Obama has played sop to the Russians and ditched America’s nuclear missile shield in Europe, as part of a wild card gamble.  The UK feels a little less safe tonight with this decision, do you agree?

‘Star Wars’ / SDI was the £20 billion deployment of a system of radar and missiles to protect the West from nukes, particularly from the rogue states like North Korea and Iran.  Any missiles launched in anger against the West would have been intercepted from Poland and the Czech republic and smashed into millions of pieces in mid flight.

So why has Obama done this?  Some have stated that Obama and the US people were so pissed off by the betrayal by the UK by releasing Megradhi, they destroyed this plan.  Unlikely, but who can say that this was not a contributory factor.  More likely, is that as some state that this is Obama playing a clever game of cards with Russia, to gain their support, in ensuring Russia go back on their friendship with  Iran and agree sanctions, hence slowing their nuclear ambitions.  Back home, Obama’s right wing critics are stating this shows a sign of weakness in Obama and if Russia don’t support the USA in pressuring Iran, and getting the result of Iran denouncing its nuclear weapon ambitions, (like Libya), then Obama would have failed and made the world a lot less safer.  Obama’s brand is diminishing in the US, what with the health service reforms, this gamble could have implications on his Presidency back home.  Brave man…..or foolish….you decide.

Many dangers abound.  What if Russia sells Iran missile to protect its nuclear weapons labs from Western or Israeli jets.  Not beyond the realms of possibility.  This may prompt of course Egypt or Saudi Arabia to seek nuclear weapons.  So Obama’s decision could have wide seeking implications.

Obama’s policy is unquestionably a gamble.  Remember his campaign slogan, ‘no drama Obama’.  Well this is ‘lets take a gamble Obama, with cards open on the table, ready to see Russia’s hand and desperately hope they fall into line with us’!

The problem with Obama’s policy is that he is also taking the gamble that it will take states like Iran a long time to build and be operationally able to deploy long range nuclear missiles.  Yes they can deploy short and medium-ish range weapons now.  But long range, Obama calculates that is years away.  This is based on intelligence assessments.  Ah yes, intelligence assessments.  The same type that stated that Saddam Hussein had ‘weapons of Mass destruction’?  Trustworthy then I guess! 

So what if intelligence assessments are wrong and in the short term, states like North Korea and Iran generate long range weapons? America will have short range systems ready for deployment but not long range.  It takes time to get long range missile defence systems in place.  It’s not like going to McDonald’s and ordering a quarter pounder & fries!

If I were advising Obama, I would be stating the optimum defence policy is one that covers all bases.  All eventualities.  Our duty as public servants is to ensure the protection of our citizens.

Of course, if Obama gets a big win and Russia pressure Iran to drop their nuclear weapons ambitions, that would be seen as a win.  We are nearing endgame with Iran.    On October 1st, Iran meets with the US at a world summit of top leaders.  If Obama’s team fail in those talks to get Iran to drop its nuclear weapon ambitions, then Obama has stated he will table a new sanctions resolution before the UN Security Council.  America, most likely, will target Iran’s oil and gas industries, (Iran’s lifeblood vein), most likely with a UN ban on investment in this industry. 

Hence spotlight on Russia.  Will they allow such a resolution to pass.  Obama is gambling since ‘Star Wars’ is dropped, Russia will feel obliged to pay back, and support a resolution.  But if Russia vetoes or dilutes a sanctions resolution, this will backfire on Obama and leave the West with Iran continuing to develop and enrich Uranium for nuclear weapon production, and leave the West more vulnerable to attack.

Tonight, on a key foreign and defence issue, Obama has gamble on the winning hand of cards running his way……!!!!

But what the media and politicians are forgetting is that Iran is not the only state with nuclear ambitions. Obama is too preoccupied with Iran.  North Korea are as unreliable and unpredictable a nation as you can get.  Who knows what Kim Jong will do next?  Hardly the most stable of Leaders.  Old, poor health, fighting for power and wanting to secure his place in infamy & history.  What has he got to lose by firing a missile?  What about Pakistan? A very volatile regime.  With a growing Al Qaeda influence in Pakistan, who can dismiss a coup d’etat one day?  Afghanistan.  Again, all sorts of possibilities.  What if the Taliban can buy or steal a nuclear weapon?  Afghanistan is a home to drugs….a great revenue generator for whoever has control!  What if the Afghanistan War becomes so unpopular, the USA & NATO pull out and the Taliban take control again?  So many possibilities.  Now, no defence shield to protect Europe, (and the West).

Europe feels a little less safe tonight…..!  The decision to axe ‘Star Wars’ is a gamble…will it pay off?