The Czech Republic may well provide the British public what they crave…a referendum on the EU’s ‘hated’ Lisbon Treaty.  I can hear the celebrations taking place now…..yes, a UK referendum is looking ever more likely.  Ideally, the Irish will vote ‘NO’ and kill the Treaty off in a little under 2 weeks but if they don’t….wouldn’t it be satisfying for the British people to finally have the chance to kill this Treaty!

Latest news through has potentially profound implications not only on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty but the agenda & debate of the next general election. 

Yesterday, the Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer warned that a constitutional challenge to the Lisbon Treaty in the Senate could delay final ratification by up to six months.  This led to heated exchanges.  President Sarkozy of France had a hissyfit, he “exploded” when he heard the news, according to an EU diplomat, and is threatening the Czechs with unspecified “consequences” if they do not speed things up.  EU diplomacy…not like what you hear…bully and threaten the small states.  Unbelievable version of democracy.

Why is the French President so furious?  Most likely he views the Czech senators’ proposed complaint as a ploy by Václav Klaus – a long-time and vocal opponent of the treaty – to ensure that, even with an Irish ‘yes’, the treaty’s final ratification is delayed long enough to allow general elections to take place in the UK in 2010.

We cannot of course take for granted that the Irish will be bullied into a ‘Yes’ vote.  But the campaign in Ireland has been very one sided.  Brussels have provided officials to speak on all the national news outlets, tv advertising has been in your face and threats have been resonating with the Irish people, eg Vote ‘No’ and Ireland will be isolated, therefore lose investment and companies would relocate elsewhere…scary messages in a recession.  The degree of campaigning and ‘persuasive bullying’ for a ‘Yes’ vote has been stunning.  Such interference in the democratic process by the Brussels machine has been deplorable.  So, whilst we have to hope the Irish vote with their hearts and souls and stick to their original decision ie a ‘NO’ vote, we cant be surprised if the Brussels bullying pays off and a ‘YES’ vote comes through…as polls are indicating.  Hence this news from the Czech Republic is stunning and leaves many of us with a sense of hope. 

So if  Czech ratification is delayed until May, then our political parties could well go into the next general election with the whole treaty unratified.  David Cameron has a stated policy that we will hold a referendum if the Treaty is not ratified.  A ballot which would almost certainly lead to a strong ‘no’ in our traditionally Eurosceptic island nation.

This is a perfect scenario for Cameron and removes a major issue of contention.  Cameron’s biggest ‘ticking timebomb’ of an issue would have been if Ireland voted yes, the Czech ratified and hence the whole Lisbon Treaty was ratified and into law by the time Cameron could be in power.  It would have been a nightmare for Cameron to hold a referendum on a Treaty already signed into law.  It would have made him massively unpopular amongst his peers in Europe, (not that many would care about that but trade needs to run freely and not be interrupted by the machinations of disgruntled politicians).  Hence, Cameron coming to power with an unratified Treaty would be perfect as he can leave the choice to the British people…which we know would be massively in favour of rejecting the Treaty.

We know that Euro officials will do ALL they can to ensure that Czech fall into line.  They will never want the UK to vote on an unratified Treaty as it would destroy it.  Let’s hope that the Irish vote ‘NO’ and kill this Treaty but if they don’t….the Czech could lay us British the chance to drive the last nail home into this dreadful Treaty.

Now, thanks to the Czech Republic we may get our chance to vote in a UK European referendum.  The question is simple to pose:  ‘Should the UK ratify the Lisbon Treaty?  Yes or no?   ………. I look forward to campaigning actively, with many of you, for that ‘NO’ vote….unless the Irish save us the privilege!