Prime Minister cutting Trident budget.  Prime Minister cutting £2bn off education spending.  More cuts yet to be announced as Whitehall Mandarins currently do the maths.  Where does this leave the Tories?  Is the Emperor trying to steal our clothes?

One of the key differentiators over the summer, ‘clear blue water’, between Labour and Tories has been the early identification by the Conservatives that there needed to be spending cuts to reduce the spiralling deficit.  Pre the recess Gordon Brown was scornful of Cameron’s policies.  At times deeply patronising.  For Brown the choice was between ‘Tory cuts, Labour Investment’.  Cameron was Mr 10%.  The man would axe teachers, health workers, public sector jobs etc.  Oh how times have changed over the Summer.  Brown has been dragged kicking and screaming down the road to Damascus.

Labour have now u-turned.  They have done a complete 180 degree turn and now are prioritising expenditure reviews….only because necessity dictates.  Brown wants to avoid that visit to the IMF, cap in hand, for a bailout of bankrupt Britain….pre the election at least.  So how has this situation developed over the past 2 weeks?  First up, leaked Treasury documents showed that Labour have been in the planning stages of 10% cuts over this summer, (making the abuse that Brown gave Cameron as Mr 10% farcical and deeply offensive).  Ed Balls comes out at the weekend to announce £2bn cuts in education spending.  Yes, this involves axing teaching staff, (something Cameron had been accused of).  Now today, Brown announces he is planning to cut circa 1/4 off Trident spending.  More spending cuts will be announced over the coming weeks.

Trident is an easy card for Brown to play.  He needs his friends on the Left of the Party.  The card carrying dregs left of CND will rejoice that this decision is a move in their direction, albeit only 1 submarine!   It will be interesting to see how Cameron plays the Trident decision.  The Conservatives have always been the Party of Defence.  Known for strong investment into the defence of the realm.  Does he play this card?  Does Cameron say that Labour is leaving the country weaker, as evidenced by the Afghanistan war with soldiers left with insufficient manpower, equipment, armoury, transportation and air power, backing this up with cuts in Trident? 

Or does Cameron focus on economic reality.  He needs to make big cuts.  Not every area can be ring fenced.  The health service is sacrosanct. But cuts need to be made, is Trident one area?  Tough decisions, which will be political by nature.  Cameron also has to be aware of the prevailing times.  Obama’s New World Order, reduce nuclear proliferation.  But times that also pose new dangers.  Unpredictable rogue states like Iran, North Korea, an unstable Pakistan and a real threat of a non conclusion to the Afghanistan War, hence leaving the Taliban regaining control.  Real danger exists and must never be discounted.

The public spending debate is starting to change.  It is no longer a choice of cuts vs. investment.  It is a choice of what gets cut and how much?  As we move forward, ardent critics of the Government’s policy in the past who urged drastic cuts in spending like World Bank, IMF, IOD, CBI, will neutralize their stance / start to make positive noises towards Labour, as they at last announce cuts.  The public sometimes have short memories and hence while the Tories led the way on proposing cuts, the Government will demonstrate they have been cutting, hence moving some way to shortening / blurring the clear blue water we built on this issue.

Now what is the best policy for the Conservatives moving forward?  We could be out manoeuvred by Labour!  This is a key strategic decision by Cameron & team.

Option 1 is silence.  Do the Conservatives need to detail all the policy areas they would cut?  This in effect is the age old argument over whether an Opposition should reveal a shadow budget.  Given spending decisions are being made, unpopularity will follow for this Government.  Already in education, teaching unions are discussing the need for strike action.  Do the Conservatives need to enter into a spending squabble between the Government and Teaching Unions, when we can leave them to it and grab the pop corn and enjoy the fireworks and watch our poll ratings rise.   As other cuts are announced.  More attacks will be made on the Government by those affected.  Strikes will follow.  Public protests.  Marches.  Demonstrations.  All from which we could sit back and watch poll support, in theory rise!

Danger of this strategy is Labour’s response and whether it would resonate with the public.  It is clear that Mandolsen’s strategy in the next election will be, there will be gentle cuts under Labour, precision cuts by a skilled surgeon, and the slogan will be life would be worse under the Tories.  They will state that Tories would propose ‘savage’ cuts.  They will try to paint us as ideologically committed and turned on by spending cuts.  They will paint us as the Party of Unemployment.  This will be the line that every Cabinet Minister will subconsciously try to drum into the electorate’s head.  But will the electorate believe that?  Will they trust a proven lying Government?  That’s the gamble.

Option 2.  That is for the Conservatives to take charge of the spending question.  George Osborne could call a press conference this week and show economic leadership by providing more detail in what Conservatives propose to cut.  We know that Whitehall is preparing the figures and Ministers chewing over what has to be cut.  Before they announce their results, Osborne could have trumped them and then accused Labour of copying Conservative proposals.  We know that Labour are happy to steal our clothing.  Look at Tony Blair.  New Labour was socialism in a pink dress and nice stiletto’s, hiding the evils which lay beneath. 

These are interesting strategic times.  Critical as we approach the next election.  As Conservatives move further towards the Left to attract Liberal Democrat voters, we have to ensure that a clear choice still remains for the electorate.  Choosing between different shades of the same colour can make it easier for bigger poll swings, one way or another.  Electoral volatility is well known in our electoral history.  1992 is a great example, with Major beating the odds, despite poll ratings being wildly wrong.

Of course, Labour are mightily unpopular today.  But what if Brown does decide to retire early because of failing health.  What if the Labour Conference next week is so rebellious, that more follow Charles Clarke and openly criticise Brown, that Brown either quits for the Party of the men in grey coats knock at the doors of Number 10.  The smiling Alan Johnson, the most likely benefactor of Brown going, would enjoy a media bounce and chance to change the Party’s policies, say he is listening to the Public, then the subsequent 3 month honeymoon period, could make it tougher for the Conservatives to achieve the thumping majority we all crave for, (if a snap election had been called to correspond with the honeymoon period).

So what is the clear blue water?  What differentiates us from the other parties?  Well several cards are ours to play.  Core issues like Europe, immigration and taxation are natural Conservative areas.  These are currently on the back burner.  Unplayed winning hands.  Why are they not being played some will ask?

The answer is that polls show that the biggest pool of undecided voters lay in the centre ground.  Lib Dem supporters are volatile.  They are feeling ‘warm and fuzzy’ towards Conservatives.  Given our core supporters want / demand change away from this dreadful Socialist Government, we can bank on their support.  Their votes are in the bank, (however much they want a real swing to the right).  So naturally, as we saw Eric Pickles do last week, the Party seeks to attract Lib Dem voters by playing smooth, sensual, alluring tunes to their supporters to dance to.  Pickles won’t play the Europe card now, as Clegg himself identifies, Lib Dems and Conservatives have different visions of Europe.  Lib Dems love the European Superstate.  Hence, keep Europe off the table.  Discussing Europe will make us less appealing to Lib Dem floaters.  Whilst the Party can, it advisably follows the strategy of winning and building upon core support and keeping away from controversial issues that could be divisive.  No need to rock the boat in the delicate run up to the election.

But….here comes the but….if this Government start to reduce the clear blue water, starts rising in the polls, voters getting more confused at who offers what…..no doubt the European question, Immigration and Tax will raise their head again.  But only if and when the Party need to differentiate itself.  Until that point, the controversial issues will lie sleeping…….