As the UK dangles over the economic precipice, we cannot afford for ‘events, dear boy’, to knock the economy back further into the canvass.

But events is what is now threatening our economy and jobs.

If the Swine flu pandemic continues as it is forecast to do by the Government, then Britain could slide backwards towards a deflationary recession.

Ernst & Young have issued a report stating if a pandemic reaches 100,000 cases a day by August, lasting for 6 months, it would lead to a devastating fall of 7.5 % in GDP.  This is based on Government figures of an ultimate reach of 50% with a death rate of 0.4%.

Of course the fall in GDP is based on sick employees not going to work.  Also predicted is a fall in retail economic activity as shoppers keep away from crowds.  This also feeds into out tourism, sports, food/restaurants and entertainment culture.

Swine flu cannot be underestimated.  It is moving, according to the World Health Organisation, as an ‘unprecedented speed’, thanks to modern globalisation and travel.

Adding to this is the worry that swine flu may mutate and could turn deadly if it combines with avian flu in South East Asian hotspots or Egypt.

Let’s keep fingers crossed swine flu does not turn into the curse of this generation!