Peter Mandelson is a clever politician.  Loathed by Conservative benches, Mandelson is a shrewd opportunist who can manipulate popular opinion and massage  media messaging.  Brown relies on him implicitly now.  In the recent leadership debacle we learn daily new details of the lengths that Mandelson went to support Brown and prop him up, including speaking with each of the potential major leadership challenges to persuade them they were better off under Brown.  Without Mandelson it seems that Brown was a gonner!

There is nothing Mandelson likes more than power.  He is as addicted to power as much as any drug addict is to cocaine.  He simply will not stand by while Labour continues to drown.  Norwich North would have been a hammer blow to him.  Reportedly he loves Labour, perhaps unfairly I would say he loves power more.  Hence he MUST be now debating how the Labour Party can win / limit damage at the next election?  Norwich North would have confirmed to him that Brown is the Conservatives biggest advantage. 

So let’s put ourselves into Mandelson’s shoes.  He knows that Gordon Brown is now a liability and that there is little chance of Brown being in any way in a position to turn this ship around.  When and how to remove Brown is the best questionfor Mandelson to answer….and to plan for.

Labour strategicians are banking on good economic news coming the end of this year and the beginning of next year.  Labour will not want to wait till the end of June and most likely aim for an April election.  With the new tax year starting in April, people will see higher tax bills reducing their net pay.  This is not the message that a winning Government would want the electorate to experience pre going to the Polls, hence early April would be the optimal last date for an election.  S0 then Mandy must work back if April is the election date…when would a new leader be best placed to take the helm of the ship?  (calling an election before December would be suicidal as green shoots of recovery would not be felt by the electorate and that is what the Government are banking on to help their electoral chances).

So when would it be best to get rid of Brown?  Conference season in October?  This would not make much sense.  When replacing the leader, parties benefit for a short honeymoon period, whatever the circumstances.  The new Labour Leader could seek to distance themselves from the policies and unpopularity of Brown, to paint a new and rosy picture of what life would be like under their leadership but this strategy only works if an election comes within 2/3 months of replacing the leader.  If Brown was ousted in October, and Labour hope to benefit from better economic news and people to see recession is ending, hence aim for an April election, the new leader in place in October would be out of the honeymoon period and mired in events and any bad news.

So, if I was Mandy, (what a scary thought), I would aim for Brown to step aside in late November, with the Labour Party going through a ‘disciplined’ leadership battle, with a new Leader in place by the New Year.  New Year, New Leader.  Promote the hell out of him/her, (heaven forbid if Harman), in the New Year and then call an election for the last week of March/first week of April.

Agree?  Let’s see what happens……

Mandelson smells defeat under Brown….