A titanic battle is shaping up

Warning….Warning….it may come as a shock to many in the Conservative Party but we have not won the election yet.

Over the past couple of months I have met both Conservative MP’s, Councillors and PPC’s.  What is striking is the degree of complacency creeping in.  Many are taking it for granted that the Conservatives will be elected with a whopping majority of 150+.  Many feel that we just cant lose.  Gordon Brown is such an arrogant man and a liability that the voters will surely reject him.  What’s unbelievable that this arrogance and blindness feels deep set.  The election is not won until every ballot is cast and counted.  PPC’s especially, some political novices, are ill prepared for the fight ahead, which will be bloody as this Labour Government do ALL they can to stay in power.

The Independent Poll, following in the trend of recent polls, shows that Conservative support is not solid enough.  According to ComRes, (published in the Independent), the Tory lead has fallen from 16 points last month to 11 points. It put the Tories on 36 per cent (down two points on last month), Labour on 25 per cent (up three points), the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent (down one point) and other parties on 20 per cent (no change).  (That 20 percent includes the likes of the BNP and UKIP, parties the Conservatives could squeeze out if they cleverly played their cards right).

If these figures were reflected in a General Election what would happen?  These figures would give Mr Cameron a majority of ONLY10.  That would make life tough for the MP’s, especially the Whips would have a big job ensuring votes were not lost.  Hence, we have not done enough to seal the deal with voters.

What is most worrying is that Labour is increasing it’s position in Polls.  Voters have short memories it seems.  The Damien McBride Affair and smeargate; MP’s Expenses with members of the cabinet caught flipping; the economic mess caused largely by Brown’s profligate spending and of course his failure to regulate the banking sector seeing the biggest banking crisis on his watch in this Nation’s history; the shocking Local & European Election results that saw Labour crushed in Wales and letting the BNP in Labour heartlands; the multitude of Cabinet & Ministerial resignations over bron’s leadership & Labour fortunes; the slaughtering of Gordon Brown’s credibility as a leader; the ‘thread of dishonesty’ over spending plans and not admitting to cuts…despite Treasury figures showing real cuts pending; the ‘lie’ over the 50p tax rate for top earners above £150,000 pa; and the light legislative agenda or reform program that sees key policies iced or dumped liked the Post Office privatisation or National ID Card scheme. That’s a shocking list of failures that should see Labour’s poll rating at 10% not 25%!

Quite frankly, Gordon Brown and his team could not have been more disastrous.  A hotch potch of mess and catastrophic decisions and yet….despite all this…they are recovering in the polls, their rating is increasing and the Conservatives is decreasing.  This shows the volatility of the electorate….and the work Conservatives still have to do.

It also shows that Conservatives need to do more to convince voters.  Brown’s lies and playing to the public’s fears may be working.  Whilst political commentators and bloggers like us can see through the ’spin’ and pantomime we see at PMQ’s with Brown manically shouting, ‘Labour Investment, Tory Cuts’, ‘We are the Party of the many, the Tories are the Party of the few’, ‘10% cuts means 10% less teachers, 10% less nurses, 10% less midwives, hospital ward closures’ etc, all this can resonate amongst the mass electorate.  Remember that a small proportion of the electorate listen to full Press Conferences or PMQ’s.  They hear the quick soundbites on the news.  BBC of course edited to favour the Government whilst claiming to be impartial. hence our message is not hitting home hard enough.

Conservatives need to play to their strengths.  Ensure that all the electorate know what they stand for.  Ensure that more of the Shadow Cabinet are visible with new policy ideas.  As stated previously on this blog, Conservatives can win key votes on key issues including the economy, (tax cuts to stimulate the economy and facts show tax receipts rise for the Government), immigration, (clear policy ensuring economic sustainability), and a stronger line on Europe, (and ensuring the sovereignty of the British people).  These are big issues and of course if over played can make the Conservatives seem extreme.  However, these ’stronger issues’ when balanced with Cameron’s Social Conservatism and support for the Health Service & education can be potent.

Cameron is not complacent over the next election.  Full credit to him for that.  Conservative MP’s Councillors and PPC’s should redouble their efforts, cut the complacency, (the British people hate complacency and love supporting the underdog), and realise that the election still needs to be won. 

Brown realises that his poll rating is ok considering the mess of recent weeks.  He heads into the ‘quiet summer period’ where little political news will take place, with a long hot summer that voters will enjoy and relax in…and their memories will fade about these current worries.  brown also is counting on the economic green shoots continuing to blossom.  Each day a small shred of good news is coming through, house prices slightly rising, mortgage applications increasing, mortgage approvals increasing, retail prices stable etc. 

I urge all Conservatives not to think election victory is a dead cert.  This election is not won yet.  Complacency goes hand in hand with defeat…..

Let’s get the Gloves on and fight….and hammer home our advantage………