Tory Bear posted this Twitter entry from the Government Chief Whip, Nick Brown, earlier today.  It has now been deleted.  Suspicious eh…….accidental mistake or a deliberate mislead?

This has led to a flurry of speculation, including this was a political move by Nick, to throw some confusion into the political system over the date of the next election.  Could it be the date of the general election or most likely the by election for the Speaker?

As per earlier blogs, TBB is firmly of the belief that a general election will come this summer:

-     Gordon Brown has had enough.  His body language says so.  His performance in PMQ’s again today was poor.  Cameron was all over him and Brown trotted out tired old arguments about Tory spending plans.  This was Brown going through the motions.  He knows that his arguments against an election just don’t cut it with the man on the street.  Private No.10 polling will tell him that.

-     Brown would not want to face an election and then lose it big time and face stepping aside from the leadership to hear new leadership contenders criticising him and his policies.  Any new leader would seek their own identity and need to distance themselves from him.  Brown would HATE that.  He hates criticism and having the next leader be on a platform which differed from him would be a nightmare for him.  He is a control freak who needs to get his own way.

-     Brown would not want to spend the duration of the next Parliament on the backbenches.  After an election loss, he would step aside as leader and for him to watch a new leader would be a pain but not as much as skulking on the backbenches watching David Cameron, with a large Conservative Majority, reverse all his policies and be a popular leader.  That would be living hell for Brown.  This must play heavily on his mind.  5 LONG Gruelling years on the backbenches…..no way. 

-    Brown will not want to sit out until the last minute in May 2010, unless something tangible will change.  The economy will not suddenly turn to boom.  There is no initiative that he can introduce that will turn his Government’s popularity around.  He will be left a victim to events.  That means 12 months of drifting and reacting to events.

-    Brown knows that things will get worse before they get better.  Already he has had the humiliation of being defeated over the Gurkha’s…by his own troops marching through the lobbies with Tories and Lib Dems etc.  He needs the support of the Tories to get through Post Office Part Privatisation and he knows that Cameron could walk away from that.  PMQ’s will become a bigger pain as Cameron hammers him each time with the call for an election.  And most of all he knows that the European and County Council elections will potentially see Labour at a meltdown situation.  If polls are right, in the Euro election, Labour will tie will UKIP…and that is a disaster for Labour.  The Labour grandees would be banging mightily on the Trade Union tables over that.

-    Waiting until May 2010, would be a nightmare for his MP’s.  They are scared of losing their seats.  They are getting rebellious.  Distancing themselves from unpopular policies, to win favour from their local electorate.  An MP will always do what they can to defend their seat and if the Government is unpopular they will be wanting to be sen to have a different opinion and hence rebel.  The Chief Whip knows this and would be advising the PM accordingly.  A year would leave some Labour MP’s verging on insanity.

-    The humiliation of the European Elections and County Elections, will see him play his trump card of a Cabinet Reshuffle but in his heart of hearts he knows that this will not spark a turnaround in Labour fortunes.  It may lead to a 3-4 point rebound but that will quickly be lost again.

-   Lastly, Alastair Darling, continues, even in the Press today, to predict that the economy will start turning around and be in recovery by Christmas.  This is pure fantasy.  The IMF totally disagree and predict the economy still contracting late this year…not recovering.  Quantitative easing as John Redwood says on his blog today is not working.  The economy is teetering…..hence Darling is ’singing in the bath’ and helping in the plans for their summer campaign. 

Of course Brown denies the planning for an imminent election….he will say it will cause chaos…..to ensure the Tories are caught by surprise…..but a summer election is their best chance to minimise their meltdown, under a new leader.

Hence, this is what TBB forecasts will happen.

Brown, because of all the above, will announce shortly after the European & County Council elections on June 4th that he is to step down as Leader.  He will say his job is done.  He has worked day and night to turn the economy round, brought together G20 and everything is now in place for a recovery.  Due to the tolling hours on his health and family life he will say that it is time for a new Leader to take the Party forward in more positive times.  He will admit that he will be tainted with the recession and he would not like to go into an election with this stigma for the Party.  He will play the card that it is now time for him to spend more time with his family. 

This is the only chance that Labour have left.  No policy initiative or ‘weapon’ at their disposal can turn around this poll in time for a May 2010 election.  Hence the goal will be a new leader, hence a honeymoon period for that leader in the polls and bang….an election.  This new leader will then say, because of all the sleaze in parliament and events of the past few months, we need a new election, fresh faces, fresh ideas…..and call one.  Labour hope this will minimise losses and perhaps the British people will be gullible and scrape them in.

This not only makes common sense but is truly the last option for Labour.  If I were their election strategist this is what I would be advising them, and Brown knows this heart of hearts.

Lord Brown of Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath arise with your £2 million pension agreement.

What other option is there?

Time for a visit to the bookies…….mark my words…Brown is going…a General Election is coming…..Brown sees his time at an end.