Much is being made of the Conservatives current polling figures.  Is this a trend?  Is Labour closing the gap?  Has Cameron failed to ‘seal the deal’ with the electorate?  Is Ashcroft right that polls don’t matter because it’s the key swing in a handful of marginal’s that will win this election, (hence the pouring of time & resource into key marginal’s)? 

Of course, who is right we will see…..

In the blog article below, advice given was that the Tories should really start speaking on a handful of key ‘safe’ Tory issues including:  tax cuts, law & order, immigration, Europe.

BUT….What is critical is that the Conservatives need to focus on painting a picture, full of colour & warmth, of the world they want to take us to…..when we are past all the pain…….

Now that may strange and an overly fluffy statement.  But it’s critical for the Conservative strategists to grasp this nettle. 

The focus on ‘Austerity’ and the fact that Britain is broken, the economy a shambles, a debt that is crippling is now well understood by the British public.  George Osborne has been courageous in his ‘sound’ statements on public finances and how he will slash the public debt within four years and that the situation is that dire, he will implement an emergency budget within 50 days of taking office.

Now, October Conference time this message resonated with the mass electorate….and it still does resonate…..but now more so with the financial markets and top economists.  But economists don’t win elections.  It’s the people on the doorstop that matter and push come to shove they may be fearing the prospect of spending cuts, (many of which they don’t know), and potential taxes going up.  This is going to be a fertile area for Labour to exploit…and yes…play on people’s fears in the coming campaign.  Already literature has been circulated saying the Tories will double business rates in certain areas, or close hospital wards as part of its cuts program.  All lies….but Labour will certainly press home any fear for gain of an advantage.

This Government is adopting the stance of an alcoholic.  They have an addiction, (spending tax payers cash…and future cash like there’s no tomorrow).  But like any alcoholic they can’t admit to the problem.  Worse still they don’t want any help in solving their addiction.  The idea of cold turkey is something that is tough to sell to an alcoholic.  Hence the same with tough economic measures.  People fear the medicine.  But people also deny the problem affects them.  ‘How does national debt affect me in my council house…bar…it’s other peoples problems not mine mate’!

The British people love the underdog.  They love to believe in the unbelievable.  They support situations in which winning seems the remotest possibility….but sometimes the impossible happens!  They dream the dream and often dreams are better than reality.  Hence why we always believe that we can win every World Cup we enter, despite often not possessing the talent to progress far.  That belief in hope ably demonstrates that the British people hold dear aspiration as key dream.

It is true that the British people have had to listen to months, maybe years now, of gloomy headlines.  Banks collapsing.  Financial markets in turmoil.  Unemployment rising.  Soldiers dying.  Coupled with a freezing cold winter and heaps of snow, the people must now be at the end of their tether.  They need something to look forward to…..not more doom & gloom.

In many ways Labour strategists are seizing on this theme.  ‘Conservatives talk down Britain’!  ‘Labour does not share Conservative Pessimism’.  ‘Conservatives aim to slash spending and kill the recovery off’.  ‘Inheritance tax cuts for the rich’.  All very familiar slogans coming from the Labour Leadership.

Now, what the Conservatives have to remember is that the current British psyche is a debt culture, (thanks to 13 years of Socialism).  Spend today, pay off tomorrow……but tomorrow never comes.  Debt increases.  Hence why the British have one of the highest personal debt ratios in the G20.  Our people spend what they cannot afford but in the knowledge they can get more credit cards, consolidate etc and put off dealing with their debt.  Hence, in their own minds they ask, ‘Why pay off the debt today, why not leave until tomorrow’. 

What is ‘right’ and what is popular are two different things, especially when it comes to macroeconomic management.

As we head into Spring.  The weather gets warmer.  Sunny weather, sunny outlook!  Nights grow less dark.  People need to again feel optimistic.  To believe in something.  Believe in better times.  The World Cup approaches.  Optimism abounds.

Hence, why the Conservatives campaign must now focus on Aspiration not Austerity.

When people aspire to something better, they work harder….they have a motivation, an inspiration….an aspiration.

That is the ‘promised land’.  The dream of a better tomorrow.

This is the vivid, bright picture that Cameron must now paint in the hearts and minds of the British electorate.

The people are ready to be inspired.  They are listening. 

What will Cameron’s Britain look like in 5 years.  In ten?  What’s the journey?  How will people’s lives be better?

As Conservatives we all know these answers.  But does the mainstream electorate?  Have we articulated our vision enough?  I would say we have a lot more to do.  Turning our campaign into a beacon of hope for all.

Thatcher articulated a dream.  She enthused people with policies of wider home ownership, reduction of the state, privatisation, reduced taxation, Union power in check, strong law & order and of course a sound defence and leading voice on the international stage. 

The current Conservative election campaign is focused on : ‘Year for Change’?  Yes we need change.  But is that enough aspiration for people?  Change…to what is asked by the media and the electorate if polls are to be believed.

Perhaps Conservatives need a new slogan?  How about capturing the present and looking to the future.  ‘Rebuilding Britain for a better tomorrow’.

Labour won in 1997 with the slogan:  ‘Britain deserves better’.  Same principle.  Obama’s was ‘Change we can believe in’. 

Come on DC.  Aspiration not austerity.  It’s the natural next stage to your campaign for the keys to Number 10. 

Much debate in the media about whether the Conservative campaign is faltering.  Why have opinion poll leads halved over recent weeks newspaper headlines scream, especially given the unpopularity of Brown, (even his own aides can’t stand him) and the disastrous effects of this Government’s policies.  Whilst opinion polls go up and down, and there is no need to panic, there is no harm in some friendly advice on how the campaign can sharpen up.  Interesting that extremely few Conservative bloggers are offering advice, in fear no doubt of being seen as disloyal or rocking the boat.  Loyalty is helping the Party not remaining mute!  We all want Cameron in Number 10 in a matter of weeks!  He has to be for the sake of the British people and the future health of our nation: economically, socially, politically.  Another 5 years of Labour would tear us apart.  The consequences are unimaginable.

What is clear is that a resonating theme is that voters don’t quite understand what Conservatives stand for.  They like ‘that nice man David Cameron’.  They maybe don’t get what we stand for in a succinct and simple way.  And yes, we need to articulate our purpose and message.  Labour have defined their campaign under ‘a future fair for all’.  Conservatives have yet to encapsulate those inspirational catch all messages.  Yes, we are not Labour, but can the electorate understand the key differences about what Conservatives bring to the table?  Of course, much will come out in the wash of an election campaign and no doubt there is an element of holding back and building momentum up to the point of a crescendo but what is clear is that the campaign needs .  The question is, will a campaign based on ‘we are NOT Labour’ enough?  There comes the killer question.  Governments lose elections, not Oppositions win them.  Hence how much does an Opposition have to say……?

Question is……..is the best strategy to play safe, appeal to the centre & centre left or is it worth taking some risks, being bold on policy, ensuring there is clear blue water for Conservatives to be fully understood?  Based on a sample of doorstop canvassing, it is clear that turnout could be incredibly low.  People feel disenfranchised with politics and the expenses scandal has shattered trust in our political system.  Whichever Party can mobilise their support in a low turnout election will win.  Sounds simple, but things go deeper than that.

Much is made of the strategy to portray Cameron as an ‘Heir to Blair’.  In many ways this is the battle to seize the centre ground, where the largest pool of voters allegedly resides.  Or does it?  The theory goes that the ‘Blair voters’ that helped Blair win consecutive elections are alive and well and up for attracting to modern Conservatism.  But in many ways, lets also remember that those electors who helped win Margaret Thatcher her election victories are alive and well and it was many of them that transitioned to helping Blair win his elections as they grew disenfranchised with Major’s Conservatives.

In 2010, what must be recognised the ‘Blair’ brand is damaged goods.  Blair may be a great orator and can still charm with his undeniable charisma but the ‘Blair brand’ is now tarnished goods.  A hollow man than smiles nicely is still a hollow man.

Just as Labour had to redefine itself after crushing Tory victories and gloss its socialism as the super sexy ’New Labour’, the Tories have moved to the Left to seize back the Blair Labour vote.

But is this the right strategy?

What is clear on the doorstep is there are a number of key areas that are causing people concern.  Those of the economy, (obviously), but also issues like immigration, defence, law & order and Europe.  Issues that have always been traditionally strong Conservative issues.  But in seeking to seize the centre ground and to pacify all, have we now diminished the key issues and closed the clear blue water in the eyes of the electorate?

Let’s look at each of these issues.  But let’s deal with them simply, exactly as the person on the street sees them.

Immigration

The person on the street feels that immigration is out of control.  That immigrants are coming from all areas of the world, especially Europe, (eg Poland).  There is a fear that population growth will harm the economy.  Too many people in the population overcrowds the health service, larger class sizes, means more competition for jobs in a recession and hence greater unemployment, more benefits being paid, more crowding on public transport, more building of houses on the green belt, greater pollution etc.  All economic issues, some with social ramifications.  Not racial issues as the BNP would state, but economic issues. 

Other issues amplify immigration worries.  Reports that terrorists from Afghanistan and Pakistan are gaining access to the UK under bogus education visas, only adds to the fear and loathing felt by some of the electorate on this issue.  Hence the BNP play and amplify this issue and wrongly present themselves as the saviour.  Interestingly, it is in the Labour heartlands and some of the poorest constituencies that BNP do best.

Conservatives have traditionally been the Party to take a strong line on immigration.  Little is mentioned today, maybe in fear of alienating voters.  But this policy area is key to the electorate and it’s how it is positioned.  In a tough recession, with people losing jobs, the British people understand if there has to be a tighter immigration policy, a strengthening of points entry.  A tightening of education visas.  Immigration is not an extremist issue, just a logical extension of what the country can afford to sustain and help empower.  Let’s hope that this tougher message is part of Cameron’s election battle strategy. 

Law & Order

The voter on the doorstop is frustrated about the inability of police to stem violence in society.  Not the fault of the police, the fault of the tide of bureaucracy the police are drowning under as they spend more time filing reports and seeking to increase budgets via speeding fines.  People sit scared in their houses as young hoodies roam the streets.  Knife crime escalates.  Judges seem perceptibly weaker in their sentencing and incarceration of violent thugs, that the rule of law starts to mean less to all.  Life sentences no longer meaning life sentences.  Prison life seemingly easy as inmates play on videogames and text their mates on the outside with smuggled in mobiles.  Headlines scream out that those defending their property from a violent intruder, get tougher consequences for standing up to a thug…..than the thug!

These are all things that led people to traditionally trust Conservatives on Law & Order.  Conservatives were traditionally seen as tougher on crime…and to coin a phrase, tougher on the causes of crime.  Do people feel Conservatives own this policy area as  naturally today?  Is law & order high enough on the current political agenda?  Do people instantly recognise Chris Grayling?  Not as much as they should do.  Hence, again, a suggestion to talk tougher on law & order as people resonate with this issue.

Europe

Ah Europe.  The policy area touted as always splitting the Party down the middle  The issue to avoid talking about at all costs.  UKIP has been quietly making inroads into some constituencies exploiting Euro fears.  Traditionally the Conservatives have been seen as a Party that relishes the free trade aspects of Europe but none of the political & monetary Union shenanigans that is on the agenda today.  The voter on the doorstep understands that Europe can bring benefits. Cooperation over foreign & defence policy for example.  Free trade.  But they see more and more the bureaucracy and meaningless interventions in everyday life by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels or a clueless European Parliament made up of zealous federalists, at home feasting on the gravy train. 

There’s the point.  Europe has become associated in the hearts and minds of the British people as a major threat to freedom and enterprise.  Intervening in everyday life which has nothing to do with them.  We can see that the federalist dream of a single currency is killing some nations, eg Greece…. and now, to prevent the single currency crashing, Greece is having to be bailed out…followed by Ireland, followed by….etc.  If this recession has taught us one thing is that had we been in the single currency, many more jobs would have been lost, interest rates would have been higher and the economy now would be even more of a train wreck than it was.  Europe is a mess.  The people see that.  Conservatives need to associate ourselves with that public mood.

So, the people want their say on Europe.  They want to be self governed. A tougher line from Conservatives would actually be beneficial as it opens up clear blue water with Labour and Lib Dems. Let’s be bold not fearful of the big European debate.

The Economy

Pure and simple, people understand that you can’t spend what you don’t have.  Spending cuts have to be deep and swift to stabilise the economy and protect our ‘AAA’ credit rating.  So let’s name cuts.  Those many hundreds of Quangos have to go.  The Public Sector has to be cut.  Yes, cuts in health service BUT people understand cutting managers and not nurses or doctors.  Let’s be bold.  A clear and credible plan to reduce national debt over 5 years.

And yes…..as argued before on this blog, get back to cutting income tax & corporation tax at the next budget.  Revenues do rise when tax is cut.  Empirically proven in the mid 80’s recession in the Government’s own red books.  The incentive and entrepreneurship that we need will start to flourish and trickle down.  Inward investment will be attracted.  Those millionaires hiding in tax havens will start to return.  The UK will be seen as a country to invest in again.

Again, tax cuts benefit all.  Yes of course those on higher incomes benefit most.  But who are the ones that have the money to invest, create new companies, create jobs and hence pump more money into the economy.  In the UK we have become too preoccupied for how we protect the poor and generate benefits and support networks for them, then we have in stimulating enterprise…the very things that benefit more people in society.  A boisterous private sector brings benefits that far outweighs a bloated public sector.  And besides where is the public sector funded from…..private sector cash, including those bankers that we so readily bash, but happily visit hospitals their wealth has paid for. 

And yes, let’s reinforce our privatisation beliefs.  There are still parts of the state that can be best served in the private sector, (and shock horror, this includes parts of the NHS & education).  With the money earned from the sale of state assets, public sector debt can be repaid quickly and of course, cutting tax can go hand in hand.

Yes, this requires a mindset change.  The British public started down that route in the Thatcher years but the journey was curtailed as Labour stole the emperors clothes and socialism, more state control, higher taxes, penalising success, union militancy, all crept back in, helped by European legislation and diktats!

Clear Blue Water

So, that brings us back to Conservatives positioning in the middle ground and utilising ‘Heir to Blair’ metaphors.  Is it enough?  Will people vote with their hearts and minds for Conservatives?  Will they stick with the devil they know in Gordon Brown?

One thing is that values, principles and ideologies help the British people understand where a Party is coming from.  Do people understand what the current Conservatives stand for?  Let’s help steer them more clearly & articulately.

Maybe, just maybe, to strengthen the poll gap, to widen clear blue water, the trump cards should be seen as positives, vote winners and a tougher line on immigration, law & order, Europe and the economy will bring home those Blairite voters, (former Thatcher voters many millions of them).

So back to those core simple understandable issues, what do Conservatives represent…..we are

 -              The Party of Enterprise & tax cuts to stimulate wealth for all

-              Committed to reducing the size of the state and leaving individuals to make their own decisions

-              Passionate believers in Privatisation and transferring more state assets to the private sector

-              The Party that is tough on crime and the causes of crime.  Tough sentences.  Tough prisons.  Making the criminal think twice & fearful at the punish they would incur.

-              The Party that is tough on immigration and tightening border control

-              The Party that is for European free trade & enterprise BUT the Party that believes decisions should be taken by Westminster not Brussels.  Powers to be reclaimed back from Europe.

Sounds like a recipe for electoral success!!!!         

Today, of all days, David Cameron has the chance to massacre Gordon Brown at PMQ’s. 

Its is clear there is a division at the heart of Government.

Alastair Darling, Chancellor claims that inside Number 10 ‘the forces of hell’were unleashed on him when he predicted a deep and severe recession and that Damien McBride & Charlie Whelan actively briefed the media against him.

Gordon Brown, of course, denies this,  ”I was never part of anything to do with this.  I would never instruct anybody to do anything other than support my Chancellor.”

So the question is, either Gordon Brown was in control and authorising his inner circle to brief and smear his Chancellor, (in itself the very worst of playground bullying), or, if Brown is right, he would never instruct his advisers to do anything but support his Chancellor, then the accusation must be that he had lost control of the heart of Downing Street and ‘advisers’ were going off doing their own thing.  What else were advisers doing?  Again a very damning position. 

This feels like the court room scene in ‘A Few Good Men’, when Jack Nicholson, (Playing Nathan Jessop), was goaded by Tom Cruise to admit that he had ordered a Code Red.  Nicholson denied ordering his Commanders to enact a Code Red attack on a Private marine, (like Gordon Brown today!).  Nicholson’s Commanders protected him and denied everything.  But Nicholson had to be seen as in total control.  When this assertion was undermined, ie he lacked control or knowledge of what was going on, he cracked.  Lack of control was weakness.  Gordon Brown likes to revel in power, he loves to be seen in control, he is itching to say he ordered a Code Red on Alastair Darling, he just needs David Cameron to rattle his cage hard enough and fire him up to crack. 

So which is it Gordon?

I look forward to DC having some mileage on this in PMQ’s.  DC has his moment as Tom Cruise in that famous scene.  I hope his opening gambit goes something a little like this:  ‘Would the Prime Minister confirm whether he authorised the ‘forces of hell’ on his Chancellor, whether his Chancellor is lying, or whether he was unaware of the briefings taking place by his senior advisers to the media, in which case has he lost complete and utter control of the Downing Street Machine’?

I would also love to see DC draw the comparison with bullying.  ‘Would the Prime Minister agree that one definition of bullying is using advisers to brief against your Chancellor behind their back’?

Should be a fun PMQ’s. 

George….it’s time to embrace cutting income tax and slashing spending.  That’s a vote winner and it will bring us out of recession a damn sight quicker!

Cutting taxation.

A natural Conservative heartfelt belief.

It’s at our core.

And I hope we start saying it in the election campaign…..but I feel we wont because the Party will fear the attacks from Labour.

The mentality of Brown’s Government is that to raise more revenue it is essential to raise taxation: both in corporation tax and personal tax.  Hence why we saw the rise in personal taxation to 50p on earners above £150,000, (political ‘class war’ issues also played a hand to appease Labour’s traditional hard core vote).

What’s the result of the 50p tax……?  …….higher taxes are yielding LESS revenue as individuals are either using clever accountancy to avoid taxes, they are spending less or some even relocating from the UK, (the infamous Brain Drain).  The rich have less incentive to earn more, and more incentive to dodge tax.

As the Governor of the Bank of England has recognised.  Britain, with the low value of the pound, should be an extremely attractive place to set up business and be a haven for entrepreneurs.  It is also a great time to start, if you have money, to buy and invest in housing and shares as they have hit pretty much rock bottom — pending any seismic future shocks.

So to attract more business and investment to the UK, help turn the tide and bring the economy out of this damaging recession, now is the time that the Government should change tact and CUT TAX IMMEDIATELY. 

Firstly, to cut corporation tax.  Let’s stimulate our business to re-invest and take risks.  Let’s attract more business from abroad, who will of course invest, create much needed jobs, generate more revenue for the exchequer and importantly add to a growing sense of confidence in the business community.  This is surely better to stimulate the ‘engine’ of the economy than build up huge debts and pump money to prop up the economy and create thousands of jobs in the public sector.

Yes, confidence is the key word.  Imagine, a cut in personal taxation today.  It sends a bold message out, injects more money into people’s pockets, which as the slight uplift in retail sales shows, will be followed through into retail spending.  People need confidence and the tax system can be used to stimulate—prod—spur on confidence.  People need that fire lit under them.

This bold move is one that has been achieved in the past.  JFK boldly showed this theory is sound in 1960 and the Irish have clearly demonstrated this with lower corporation tax:  less tax means greater yields.  

And of course we can point to the Thatcher era when low taxes led to increased investment, greater confidence and rising exchequer revenue.  When Chancellor Nigel Lawson cut the top rate of income tax to 40% he unleashed unparalleled wealth creation and the government benefited from taking a smaller piece of a far larger pie. 

But Socialists and Lib Dems disagree vehemently with this and need proof.  Hence hopefully they will learn a lot from the table below taken from official HM Treasury statistics.

Just consider that the richest 1% currently pay 23% of all tax revenues collected.  The richest 5% pay 42% of the tax collected.  Only 11.5% comes from the bottom 50%.  Where should the Government concentrate it’s efforts to stimulate the economy and gain more tax revenue?  It does not take a huge brain to work that out!

“Share of total income liability” is available for selected years.  Expressed as a percentage

Note: from 1999, people taxed as individuals not families

The time has come for the British psyche to realise that the phrase ‘cutting taxes’ does not mean falling exchequer revenues….it means, when done properly, INCREASED exchequer revenues.   Increased revenues means less government debt, it means more employment for all….and guess what….a rise in the general living standards of all.

Let’s hear George Osbourne grab this mantle and if elected, demonstrate these principles in his first budget.

Chancellor Lawson:  He got it…and demonstrated it.  Lower tax = more revenue

The Sunday Times YouGov Poll today puts the Conservatives Opinion Poll lead at 6%  That is heading towards hung Parliament territory.  Some Tories have even started to privately start to wonder if the impossible is possible and Labour sneak back in. 

Now is not the time for faint hearts and weak minds.

Now is not the time to talk of hung Parliaments and cozying up to the Lib Dems.

Now IS the time for quiet optimism and strong focus and for the waverers to cut their friendly fire sniping.

Yes, poll leads go up and down.  That is the inevitability of a fickle electorate, affected by the daily news agenda.  Some commentators attribute the Piers Morgan and Gordon Brown love-in interview as helping show the human side of Gordon.  Something the public has allegedly responded to.  But current polls need not create concern or panic.

A message to some of the wavering Tory grassroots.  We are not into the central election campaign yet.  We are in a period of noisy chitter chatter that scores points but does not influence the hearts and minds of the electorate.

Once we get the true election date, then is the time for the sprint to the finish.  Then is the time for Conservatives to reveal more policy flesh and details, (not now when Labour can take the best ideas and use them for themselves…as we know they would do).  Only then, is the time for the really punishing messages of Labour incompetence and how they have truly decimated this great nation of ours.  How they have indebted every family in this country.  That’s their idea of fairness and equality….we all owe effectively £26,000 per household in national debt.  The heavy hitting messages are ready….now is not the time to land heavy blows.  It is all about momentum.  Pickles & Cameron have that in mind.  When you run a marathon you pace yourselves, so you can sprint to the finish.  Conservatives are on track.  The energy for a srpint is well and truly there.

It really feels like, on many fronts, the Conservatives are holding back.  Pulling their punches.  In some ways just toying with Gordon.  Goding him.  Of course the key balance has been that the last thing we would have wanted was for Gordon Brown to have gone, pre the election.  We would not have wanted to fight Labour led by Miliband or Johnson.  In some ways, in those days when Brown was most vulnerable, at PMQ’s, Cameron held off battering him.  In some ways, cameron deserves credit for not killing off gordon and keeping him alive for this election campaign….anyone ever thought that?

Once the campaign starts the truly stark picture can be painted.  Yes Gordon the voters should have a ’second look’ at Labour’s record.  I am sure Cameron will encourage people to have a third, fourth and fifth look at their shambolic record in Government.  And no-one can come to any conclusion but after 13 years they have been a morally & financially bankrupt government. 

I relish the opportunity to see Gordon Brown and David Cameron in the huge TV election debates.  The electorate will see in Cameron a man with a vision for this country and conversely, Gordon Brown, a dour man, with a furious temper, with an empty basket of policies. 

So wavering Tories.  Don’t lose heart.  Keep the faith.  When the election cry is sounded.  Then is the time that Conservatives will again see their poll ratings grow.  Leading to the most important of polls….general Election day.

 The best is yet to come……

How many people do you meet nowdays that call themselves Thatcherite?

A PPC said to me the other day whilst he is a Thatcherite by ideology he would never say it publicly as it may not go down well in the Party!  He though David would not approve!

Seems like Thatcherism is an ideology that is out of fashion.

But what does being Thatcherite mean?

It means you believe in limited Government, sound economics, spending only what you can earn & not getting into debt, rolling back the frontiers of the State, espousing liberty, enpowering the individual, cutting tax, incentivising the private sector and entrepreneurs, a strong Britain on the World Stage, a strong defence policy backed by a well equipped Army, Navy & Air Force, limiting the power & scope of Europe to a free trade area not a political superstate with a single currency………

Hhhhhmmmmmm sounds good.  Aren’t we all Thatcherites? 

Much is made of the power of a blogger.

Some feel bloggers have undue influence on the political scene…others discount bloggers with contempt as a niche group of over opinionated zealous Party hacks with grandiose personal ambitions!

It is interesting to look at both sides of the story.  Some bloggers do yield  ‘power & influence’.  No-one can doubt the ’power’ that Guido and Order-Order.com yields, with, at times, the ability to shape the news agenda.  Effectively removing one of the PM’s most trusted and closest aides in Damien McBride was a real success for the bloggersphere.  The story dominated ‘Fleet street’ for weeks to come.  Guido certainly ups the paranoia factor in Westminster.  When he says a news story is about to break….MP’s look over their shoulder and quake.

Iain Dale is another great example.  Iain, in many ways does not shape the news agenda as much as a Guido exclusive does, but his grasp of PR and perceptive commentary on an issue for the media is nonetheless mightily impressive.  Iain is a trusted authority, whether on NewsNight or Sky News and is a talisman for the blogging community on how to master gaining media coverage, (sometimes he does not get the credit he deserves for his achievements in moving blogging forward).  Others now are starting to follow in his media shes, Shane Greer is a classic example and of course the up & coming Tory Bear himself.

However, not every blogger is a Guido or an Iain Dale. 

Getting to the crux of the question, will bloggers win the next election?  Nope is the clear answer if you are looking at their readership.  Let’s be honest, blogs are generally read by ‘politico’s’, those in the Westminster village, eager party supporters.  A blog reader will either be a supporter ie Conservative reading a Conservative blog, or a mischief maker, eg Labour supporters commenting on a Tory blog to torpedo any argument / have a little fun.  However, this does not sway or change votes.  Blog readers I would guess have 99% made up their mind on their voting intention, hence blogs generally don’t reach new readers and sway mass opinion.  Hence blogs wont sway an election…..not by their current readership…..how can they make an effect then and can they impact an election campaign?

Key here is that a blog story can quickly be picked up in the media and escalate into a national news story, hence then reaching the ears of the wider electorate. Therefore the job of bloggers is to help find and highlight those issues which deserve national news coverage.  Hence when Gordon Brown makes any claim in the forthcoming campaign, it will be the Tory bloggers, more so than the media, who will research the facts, check for previous policy quotes/soundbites and then publish that.  From there, an Iain Dale, Guido, CCHQ escalates up.  That is what will impact upon an election campaign…..what will be interesting in this forthcoming campaign is which bloggers, Left or Right, will generate stories that will reach national media coverage….and impact on the election campaign….maybe influence the result!